To answer your question plainly - NO.
I believe that the books set a line to get 50% on each side.
And for every person like you who thought AZ was "tailor made" by the books to jump on, there is a person who thought the same exact thing about Philly.
Books dont set lines, you and me and the betting public set the lines. Think about that. That means that everyone has a different opinion, and as said above in this thread MONEY is what determines the line - yours, mine, and everyone elses - the book just wants a commission.
To answer your question plainly - NO.
I believe that the books set a line to get 50% on each side.
And for every person like you who thought AZ was "tailor made" by the books to jump on, there is a person who thought the same exact thing about Philly.
Books dont set lines, you and me and the betting public set the lines. Think about that. That means that everyone has a different opinion, and as said above in this thread MONEY is what determines the line - yours, mine, and everyone elses - the book just wants a commission.
LOL.....i think i fell for one of those this weekend with the skins?
LOL.....i think i fell for one of those this weekend with the skins?
To answer your question plainly - NO.
I believe that the books set a line to get 50% on each side.
And for every person like you who thought AZ was "tailor made" by the books to jump on, there is a person who thought the same exact thing about Philly.
Books dont set lines, you and me and the betting public set the lines. Think about that. That means that everyone has a different opinion, and as said above in this thread MONEY is what determines the line - yours, mine, and everyone elses - the book just wants a commission.
Maybe they determine where the number finally settles, but somebody determines the opening number, and that's not the market (us, the money, whatever)
To answer your question plainly - NO.
I believe that the books set a line to get 50% on each side.
And for every person like you who thought AZ was "tailor made" by the books to jump on, there is a person who thought the same exact thing about Philly.
Books dont set lines, you and me and the betting public set the lines. Think about that. That means that everyone has a different opinion, and as said above in this thread MONEY is what determines the line - yours, mine, and everyone elses - the book just wants a commission.
Maybe they determine where the number finally settles, but somebody determines the opening number, and that's not the market (us, the money, whatever)
Dude - once again - for you this view of the game is certain - because it is you thinking it. But I am telling you that for every one of you, there was someone else thinking the same exact thing about philly.
And it is way simpler than what you are getting in to - the book set a line to get 50% of action on one side. Sometimes they get it wrong and make Mia -3 over NE and the line moves. Sometimes they get it right and it stays on the opener all week.
Either way, the book is not thinking like you should be thinking. You and I and other handicappers should be concentrating on RESULTS, books only concentrate on ACTION - they could care less about results if they do their job right. That is important.
Dude - once again - for you this view of the game is certain - because it is you thinking it. But I am telling you that for every one of you, there was someone else thinking the same exact thing about philly.
And it is way simpler than what you are getting in to - the book set a line to get 50% of action on one side. Sometimes they get it wrong and make Mia -3 over NE and the line moves. Sometimes they get it right and it stays on the opener all week.
Either way, the book is not thinking like you should be thinking. You and I and other handicappers should be concentrating on RESULTS, books only concentrate on ACTION - they could care less about results if they do their job right. That is important.
Maybe they determine where the number finally settles, but somebody determines the opening number, and that's not the market (us, the money, whatever)
Agreed, but the opening line is a PREDICTION of what will draw 50% on each side. Sometimes they are wrong, but it is still us who set the lines.
The opener is the prediction of what we will bet, and the closing number is what we actually did bet - and the better a book is at predicting what we will bet, the more money they make.
Maybe they determine where the number finally settles, but somebody determines the opening number, and that's not the market (us, the money, whatever)
Agreed, but the opening line is a PREDICTION of what will draw 50% on each side. Sometimes they are wrong, but it is still us who set the lines.
The opener is the prediction of what we will bet, and the closing number is what we actually did bet - and the better a book is at predicting what we will bet, the more money they make.
Dude - once again - for you this view of the game is certain - because it is you thinking it. But I am telling you that for every one of you, there was someone else thinking the same exact thing about philly.
And it is way simpler than what you are getting in to - the book set a line to get 50% of action on one side. Sometimes they get it wrong and make Mia -3 over NE and the line moves. Sometimes they get it right and it stays on the opener all week.
Either way, the book is not thinking like you should be thinking. You and I and other handicappers should be concentrating on RESULTS, books only concentrate on ACTION - they could care less about results if they do their job right. That is important.
Fair enough . Part of the point I was trying to get at was regarding action, or moreover "anticpated action." We may disagree but I think the linesmakers know from experience which types of players play which types of teams in certain scenarios. Since the goal is equal action, is it possible there are games where they aniticipate heavy action on one side, and set the line thusly to even it out.
Who knows, all I know is they are smarter than I am, but Im getting better. By the way I wont argue with you anymore on this stuff cause you are way out of my league when it comes to the ins and outs of linemaking etc.
Dude - once again - for you this view of the game is certain - because it is you thinking it. But I am telling you that for every one of you, there was someone else thinking the same exact thing about philly.
And it is way simpler than what you are getting in to - the book set a line to get 50% of action on one side. Sometimes they get it wrong and make Mia -3 over NE and the line moves. Sometimes they get it right and it stays on the opener all week.
Either way, the book is not thinking like you should be thinking. You and I and other handicappers should be concentrating on RESULTS, books only concentrate on ACTION - they could care less about results if they do their job right. That is important.
Fair enough . Part of the point I was trying to get at was regarding action, or moreover "anticpated action." We may disagree but I think the linesmakers know from experience which types of players play which types of teams in certain scenarios. Since the goal is equal action, is it possible there are games where they aniticipate heavy action on one side, and set the line thusly to even it out.
Who knows, all I know is they are smarter than I am, but Im getting better. By the way I wont argue with you anymore on this stuff cause you are way out of my league when it comes to the ins and outs of linemaking etc.
Fair enough . Part of the point I was trying to get at was regarding action, or moreover "anticpated action." We may disagree but I think the linesmakers know from experience which types of players play which types of teams in certain scenarios. Since the goal is equal action, is it possible there are games where they aniticipate heavy action on one side, and set the line thusly to even it out.
Who knows, all I know is they are smarter than I am, but Im getting better. By the way I wont argue with you anymore on this stuff cause you are way out of my league when it comes to the ins and outs of linemaking etc.
Not arguing - its all good discussion - and I am not out of anyones league on any of this - Im willing to listen to any opposing viewpoints - but as you can see nobody so far has attempted to explain something that is mentioned in every thread at covers - and that should tell you something.
My opinion is that books have lots to gain by matching action. Its that simple. They dont know more than you or I about who will win or by how much. They are a broker of money. If they do their jobs right, there is a ton of money to be made. The average gambler wants to get rich quick, so they look for easy answers. There are similar things regarding the stock market - people want to get rich so they go to a free seminar and buy some program that does nothing but chart stocks and has the same success as a dartboard - but plenty of people will swear by it. Same thing as this.
Fair enough . Part of the point I was trying to get at was regarding action, or moreover "anticpated action." We may disagree but I think the linesmakers know from experience which types of players play which types of teams in certain scenarios. Since the goal is equal action, is it possible there are games where they aniticipate heavy action on one side, and set the line thusly to even it out.
Who knows, all I know is they are smarter than I am, but Im getting better. By the way I wont argue with you anymore on this stuff cause you are way out of my league when it comes to the ins and outs of linemaking etc.
Not arguing - its all good discussion - and I am not out of anyones league on any of this - Im willing to listen to any opposing viewpoints - but as you can see nobody so far has attempted to explain something that is mentioned in every thread at covers - and that should tell you something.
My opinion is that books have lots to gain by matching action. Its that simple. They dont know more than you or I about who will win or by how much. They are a broker of money. If they do their jobs right, there is a ton of money to be made. The average gambler wants to get rich quick, so they look for easy answers. There are similar things regarding the stock market - people want to get rich so they go to a free seminar and buy some program that does nothing but chart stocks and has the same success as a dartboard - but plenty of people will swear by it. Same thing as this.
Agreed, but the opening line is a PREDICTION of what will draw 50% on each side. Sometimes they are wrong, but it is still us who set the lines.
The opener is the prediction of what we will bet, and the closing number is what we actually did bet - and the better a book is at predicting what we will bet, the more money they make.
It sure does seem to me that on occasion they gamble as well and set numbers designed to draw more action to a losing side, but I understand it's probably just my perception. I stand by my original thoughts that lines are set to draw equal action based on statistical numbers and public tendencies to bet certain teams and or situations.
And of course if they make a stand and then end up being wrong, they just get on the phone with the review booth and make them take the TD off the board.
Agreed, but the opening line is a PREDICTION of what will draw 50% on each side. Sometimes they are wrong, but it is still us who set the lines.
The opener is the prediction of what we will bet, and the closing number is what we actually did bet - and the better a book is at predicting what we will bet, the more money they make.
It sure does seem to me that on occasion they gamble as well and set numbers designed to draw more action to a losing side, but I understand it's probably just my perception. I stand by my original thoughts that lines are set to draw equal action based on statistical numbers and public tendencies to bet certain teams and or situations.
And of course if they make a stand and then end up being wrong, they just get on the phone with the review booth and make them take the TD off the board.
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