Finally broke the schnide last weekend! For once I didn’t pick up money in college to fuck1ng blow it all plus some on Sunday!
Cleveland +9.5(I’m waiting on 10 or higher but will play +8 or higher if it jumps down a bunch). Cleveland quietly has a very good rushing defense. If they naturally shut down the Texans run game like I think they are, that leaves a kid in his 3rd or 4th game to cover double digits?? No way. I’m a DeShaun Guy. Love the kid. Made me a fortune at Clemson. I said earlier this year he’s by far the best QB in the draft(him and the kid KC drafted). I think he’s gonna be a good pro. BUT winning a game DD points with no help from their running game? Watson was one of the lucky rookie QBs. Usually in this day of football, a high drafted and touted QB gets thrown to the wolves on a bad team and takes their medicine. Sometimes they don’t sink and wind up becoming decent over time. Usually they sunk. But every once in awhile there’s a wonderful combo where a kid who “has it” gets thrown out there, BUT on a really good team. Dak and Russ come to mind. Watson a similar story. Houston a top defense, with a decent running game. Recipe for success. Cleveland takes away that running game, and then Houston’s top defense is RAVAGED with injuries to where I doubt they are even average at this point(time will tell). Hogan an upgrade over Kizer IMO. Plus Watson has been annoited Hall of Fame status after a really really good game against a horrible defense, a really good game against a horrible defense who lost their QB and QUIT, and then a beast game where he was like 8-17 with 90 yards going into the 4th quarter, but his opponent took a big lead, played soft, the game got wacky and sloppy and lots of garbage time yardage and scores. I’m not knocking the kid. Insane start!!! I don’t see this happening Sunday. And if Cleveland lays an egg.....gotta win by 10+. Or a 30-14 game and backdoor situation. Ugly but I like the browns.
And browns are really the only play I like. This is an ugly card. A really ugly card.
I am leaning towards a couple others. All seem to be super super ugly. So nothing yet. I’ll pop back and update if I do decide to add a play or two more. I was thinking of 3 team teaser. Not my style(I’ll play a dozen or so teasers over the course of a year but ALWAYS 2 teamers). This ugly card is kind of calling for a weird(for me) 3 teamer. Something like Bears +17 ish, Jets +20 ish. Atlanta -2 ish. Maybe Pitt +14 or so. Or Tampa +9.
Most likely I’ll dig for one more straight bet. Then do that teaser for 1/2 unit to give me a reason to watch the games Sunday. But I’ll be back once I decide.
Also turnover system is such a simple thing, but it wins every year at a wacky pace. Last week 2-0 in its first eligible week(weeks 5-10) and helped me finally have a great day in the pros. Unfortunately, no plays this week with it.
Also I tailed DOCTORSUCCESS last night with Philly. Thank you, sir. I was passing on the game, but rolled with you and it’s appreciated.
GL to all. I’ll be back tomorrow or Sunday morning. (Handshake)
Finally broke the schnide last weekend! For once I didn’t pick up money in college to fuck1ng blow it all plus some on Sunday!
Cleveland +9.5(I’m waiting on 10 or higher but will play +8 or higher if it jumps down a bunch). Cleveland quietly has a very good rushing defense. If they naturally shut down the Texans run game like I think they are, that leaves a kid in his 3rd or 4th game to cover double digits?? No way. I’m a DeShaun Guy. Love the kid. Made me a fortune at Clemson. I said earlier this year he’s by far the best QB in the draft(him and the kid KC drafted). I think he’s gonna be a good pro. BUT winning a game DD points with no help from their running game? Watson was one of the lucky rookie QBs. Usually in this day of football, a high drafted and touted QB gets thrown to the wolves on a bad team and takes their medicine. Sometimes they don’t sink and wind up becoming decent over time. Usually they sunk. But every once in awhile there’s a wonderful combo where a kid who “has it” gets thrown out there, BUT on a really good team. Dak and Russ come to mind. Watson a similar story. Houston a top defense, with a decent running game. Recipe for success. Cleveland takes away that running game, and then Houston’s top defense is RAVAGED with injuries to where I doubt they are even average at this point(time will tell). Hogan an upgrade over Kizer IMO. Plus Watson has been annoited Hall of Fame status after a really really good game against a horrible defense, a really good game against a horrible defense who lost their QB and QUIT, and then a beast game where he was like 8-17 with 90 yards going into the 4th quarter, but his opponent took a big lead, played soft, the game got wacky and sloppy and lots of garbage time yardage and scores. I’m not knocking the kid. Insane start!!! I don’t see this happening Sunday. And if Cleveland lays an egg.....gotta win by 10+. Or a 30-14 game and backdoor situation. Ugly but I like the browns.
And browns are really the only play I like. This is an ugly card. A really ugly card.
I am leaning towards a couple others. All seem to be super super ugly. So nothing yet. I’ll pop back and update if I do decide to add a play or two more. I was thinking of 3 team teaser. Not my style(I’ll play a dozen or so teasers over the course of a year but ALWAYS 2 teamers). This ugly card is kind of calling for a weird(for me) 3 teamer. Something like Bears +17 ish, Jets +20 ish. Atlanta -2 ish. Maybe Pitt +14 or so. Or Tampa +9.
Most likely I’ll dig for one more straight bet. Then do that teaser for 1/2 unit to give me a reason to watch the games Sunday. But I’ll be back once I decide.
Also turnover system is such a simple thing, but it wins every year at a wacky pace. Last week 2-0 in its first eligible week(weeks 5-10) and helped me finally have a great day in the pros. Unfortunately, no plays this week with it.
Also I tailed DOCTORSUCCESS last night with Philly. Thank you, sir. I was passing on the game, but rolled with you and it’s appreciated.
GL to all. I’ll be back tomorrow or Sunday morning. (Handshake)
You know, your write-up makes sense. It seems the line was made based on Cleveland's previous games with DeShone Kizer starting. Hogan can't possibly be worse. In fact, he has to be worth 2 or 3 points, or more, just based on that, which automatically gives Cleveland an edge in respect to the pointspread. I think you have a winner with Cleveland.
You know, your write-up makes sense. It seems the line was made based on Cleveland's previous games with DeShone Kizer starting. Hogan can't possibly be worse. In fact, he has to be worth 2 or 3 points, or more, just based on that, which automatically gives Cleveland an edge in respect to the pointspread. I think you have a winner with Cleveland.
Hmm my post last night isn’t here. Basically said I added The Saints -4 and gave a to who popped in the thread so far. Also mentioned I’m stumped on any other plays, so was thinking of my first 3 team tease in 15 years.
Update on teaser is it’s not happening. It’s like the books this week know where I’m leaning and know I’m planning a 3 team teaser, and they set the lines so I’m uncomfortable with the 10 points(example is Atlanta -13.5). So lmao I said IM GOING 4 TEASER. AS DUMB A BET AS THIS IS TO BEGIN WITH, I WILL NOT BE STOPPED. And then I did a 4 teamer, saw it was 175/125, punched my wall, and canceled the bet. I’ve settled on doing TWO small TWO team 1/2 unit teasers. Teams to be determined now. What a mess. No wonder why it’s been a bad start to the season. This is like its 1994 again and I’m in high school calling in my bets and stumbling and mumbling while Joey Boom Bots whos on the call in a smoky room in Brooklyn is barely staying under control as I say “wait SF was minus what?? Can you run through them all again? Wait wait no Totals. Just give me the sides.”
Quick thoughts on the Saints(dont have the energy to rewrite the writeup; Covers easily ranked #1 all time for lost posts on a message board). Lions IMO been playing a lot worse than their record and what people give them credit for. They been winning the turnover battle every game and when u win that, u usually win games. Plus their best lineman Ngota is OUT. Best linebacker Worrilow is OUT. Best guy in the secondary(arguably) is possibly out and a GT decision. The lions defense, the crew forcing these turnovers, and the crew keeping this team alive....lost best 3 players to injury. Plus a couple others hobbled......I think Saints take this confortably.
Final Card:
- Cleveland +8.5 (Bumping up to 1.5 units)
- New Orleans -4 (Bumping up to 1.5 units)
Gonna pass on teasers. Lines same for sides I bet, so made them 180 instead of normal 125)
Hmm my post last night isn’t here. Basically said I added The Saints -4 and gave a to who popped in the thread so far. Also mentioned I’m stumped on any other plays, so was thinking of my first 3 team tease in 15 years.
Update on teaser is it’s not happening. It’s like the books this week know where I’m leaning and know I’m planning a 3 team teaser, and they set the lines so I’m uncomfortable with the 10 points(example is Atlanta -13.5). So lmao I said IM GOING 4 TEASER. AS DUMB A BET AS THIS IS TO BEGIN WITH, I WILL NOT BE STOPPED. And then I did a 4 teamer, saw it was 175/125, punched my wall, and canceled the bet. I’ve settled on doing TWO small TWO team 1/2 unit teasers. Teams to be determined now. What a mess. No wonder why it’s been a bad start to the season. This is like its 1994 again and I’m in high school calling in my bets and stumbling and mumbling while Joey Boom Bots whos on the call in a smoky room in Brooklyn is barely staying under control as I say “wait SF was minus what?? Can you run through them all again? Wait wait no Totals. Just give me the sides.”
Quick thoughts on the Saints(dont have the energy to rewrite the writeup; Covers easily ranked #1 all time for lost posts on a message board). Lions IMO been playing a lot worse than their record and what people give them credit for. They been winning the turnover battle every game and when u win that, u usually win games. Plus their best lineman Ngota is OUT. Best linebacker Worrilow is OUT. Best guy in the secondary(arguably) is possibly out and a GT decision. The lions defense, the crew forcing these turnovers, and the crew keeping this team alive....lost best 3 players to injury. Plus a couple others hobbled......I think Saints take this confortably.
Final Card:
- Cleveland +8.5 (Bumping up to 1.5 units)
- New Orleans -4 (Bumping up to 1.5 units)
Gonna pass on teasers. Lines same for sides I bet, so made them 180 instead of normal 125)
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