I have been examining the passer rating difference of the Pats and Bucs. For the most part, a positive difference between the offensive and defensive ratings indicates the team won. A negative difference indicates a loss. The only team so far where passing rating difference has been off is the Chargers.
As an examination, I start with the hypothesis of the Pats defense being bad and that influences their ability to cover. I have been considering using the median more than the average. I may even end up using the average of ( median & average ).
Using the average, the Pats have a (-0.3925) passer rating difference. Using the mean, the Pats have a (-0.005) passer rating difference. Looking at this from a big picture kiss perspective, you have a significant negative result and an around 0 result that is not good either.
Now onto examining the Bucs ...
Using the average, the Bucs have a (-0.523) passer rating difference. Using the mean, the Bucs have a (+2.29). This disparity from the two numbers is influenced by a blowout the Bucs suffered. The mean looks closer to the result of a 2-1 team.
This is where the average of (median & average) might have some merit.
I am also examining the idea of using (off rating squared)/(off rating squared + def rating squared). The result did look intriguing.
So Uncle Ernie stop with the mumbo jumbo and tell us who will cover ...
A key stat , betting decision wise, is inertia. The Pats are ranked 21 in inertia. The Bucs are ranked 29 in inertia. My labels for betting decisions are lean, tail, fade, and skip. Of the lean label there is a lean for and lean against. A fade is a more definitive version of lean against. A tail is a more definitive version of lean for. This helps me tally the decision. So this makes the Pats a skip and fade the Bucs.
Next, I would look at the Hall formula and it has the Pats with the better score. This is a lean for the Pats and a lean away from the Bucs.
Now for team effectiveness, I would look at point per play difference. The Pats have a 17 rank, and the Bucs have a 7 rank.
A skip for the Pats and a tail for the Bucs.
At the moment, I do not know what to make of the passer rating difference as betting decision. I believe it is an important factor, but i discovered it the day before this NFL season started. Just so people know, my handicapping decisions are being made in the here and now. The fun part is watching my handicapping evolve and get better the more I use it.
As I mentioned the big picture kiss concept earlier, I will use that.
Basically what I see cover wise is a skip (neutral) for the Pats, and a lean away from the Bucs. My gut says this will be a Pats blowout, but I do not have the numerical evidence for that betting decision. The Hall formula does indicate a big win, but i do not have full confidence at this point in the season in the Hall formula.
So this could end up a moneyline bet. I will take the Pats (-110) ML.