SUNDAY
New Orleans vs. Miami (in London):
An opener of New Orleans -2 was bet up to -3 very quickly, and it's
mostly stayed there all week. Any drop below the three immediately
brings in money on the favorite. Miami's had an unusual schedule with a
ton of travel because of the hurricane. Some Sharps are happy to take
the full three because they don't expect the Dolphins to play that badly
two weeks in a row (awful loss at NYJ last Sunday), but the public and
other Sharps love the explosive Saints at anything below the field goal.
Carolina at New England:
New England opened at -8, and has been bet up to -9. Some of that is
sportsbooks racing through the 8.5 because they don't want to see New
England -2.5 in a million teasers (that six-point move would cross both
the 7 and the 3 on the way down). Nothing yet to bring in Carolina
money, though dog lovers are waiting just in case it goes higher on game
day. Carolina's offense has really struggled, but so has New England's
defense. If the public pushes the game to the key number of -10, dog
money would hit very hard immediately.
LA Rams at Dallas:
Huge move on the dog here, as an opener of Dallas -8.5 is down to Rams
+6.5. Usually dog money waits for the public to lift a line higher.
Here, Sharps couldn't believe they were getting more than a TD with the
improved Rams with extra rest against the inconsistent Cowboys. Weird
for sportsbooks to be encouraging squares to bet the Cowboys, as that's
what a line a half-point below a key number is designed to do. Sharps
are really respecting the Thursday night teams with extra rest thus far
in 2017, and are enthusiastic about this Rams offense. Some interest on
the 0ver too, which has been bet up from 46 to 48.
Detroit at Minnesota:
It may be tempting to wait until Sunday morning on this one because
Sharps came in VERY hard last week about 15 minutes to kickoff on the
Vikings. That drove a line of Tampa Bay -2 down to pick-em. The Vikes
were obviously the right side once the game started. Right now, we're
seeing Minnesota -2. This is a strong home field, and Case Keenum
impressed last week, but we haven't yet seen a drive to the key number
of three. Maybe the Sharps are more interested this week in taking
Detroit +8 in teasers than they are in going to the Vikings' well one
more time.
SUNDAY
New Orleans vs. Miami (in London):
An opener of New Orleans -2 was bet up to -3 very quickly, and it's
mostly stayed there all week. Any drop below the three immediately
brings in money on the favorite. Miami's had an unusual schedule with a
ton of travel because of the hurricane. Some Sharps are happy to take
the full three because they don't expect the Dolphins to play that badly
two weeks in a row (awful loss at NYJ last Sunday), but the public and
other Sharps love the explosive Saints at anything below the field goal.
Carolina at New England:
New England opened at -8, and has been bet up to -9. Some of that is
sportsbooks racing through the 8.5 because they don't want to see New
England -2.5 in a million teasers (that six-point move would cross both
the 7 and the 3 on the way down). Nothing yet to bring in Carolina
money, though dog lovers are waiting just in case it goes higher on game
day. Carolina's offense has really struggled, but so has New England's
defense. If the public pushes the game to the key number of -10, dog
money would hit very hard immediately.
LA Rams at Dallas:
Huge move on the dog here, as an opener of Dallas -8.5 is down to Rams
+6.5. Usually dog money waits for the public to lift a line higher.
Here, Sharps couldn't believe they were getting more than a TD with the
improved Rams with extra rest against the inconsistent Cowboys. Weird
for sportsbooks to be encouraging squares to bet the Cowboys, as that's
what a line a half-point below a key number is designed to do. Sharps
are really respecting the Thursday night teams with extra rest thus far
in 2017, and are enthusiastic about this Rams offense. Some interest on
the 0ver too, which has been bet up from 46 to 48.
Detroit at Minnesota:
It may be tempting to wait until Sunday morning on this one because
Sharps came in VERY hard last week about 15 minutes to kickoff on the
Vikings. That drove a line of Tampa Bay -2 down to pick-em. The Vikes
were obviously the right side once the game started. Right now, we're
seeing Minnesota -2. This is a strong home field, and Case Keenum
impressed last week, but we haven't yet seen a drive to the key number
of three. Maybe the Sharps are more interested this week in taking
Detroit +8 in teasers than they are in going to the Vikings' well one
more time.
Tennessee at Houston:
Early interest on Tennessee -1 and -1.5, but the move stopped at the
two. Houston +8 is appealing to Sharp teaser players, and Deshaun Watson
impressed last week at New England. Will be interesting to see what the
public will do here. Both teams could fall back to earth after big
covers vs. tough opponents. Houston would get a lot of Sharp action at
+3 if the public moves the Titans that high. For now, Sharps who liked
Tennessee are already in, while those thinking about Houston prefer the
teaser route.
Jacksonville at NY Jets:
Possibly a tug-of-war setting up between Jacksonville -3 and the NY Jets
+3.5. The problem here is that it's still kind of tough to like those
teams no matter what the line is. Both are coming off blowout wins as
underdogs last week. Jags money can't be certain that Jacksonville will
play that well a second week in a row. The Jets still have "worst in the
league" kind of talent, which usually falls back to earth after a big
win. Probably a gentle tug-of-war from value bettors around the key
number.
Cincinnati at Cleveland:
The opener of Cincinnati -4 is down to a solid -3. Cleveland and the
other bad teams are getting Sharp respect as home underdogs. Kinda
strange still, as Sharps won big with the Bengals last week, but as I
said earlier, winless teams get Sharp interest early in the season.
Helps that the Browns lost on the road last week rather than being in a
letdown spot. Cincinnati has struggled all season outside of the first
half at Green Bay. Sharps like the Browns +3...and would really like the
Browns +8.5 in teasers if the game line drops to +2.5.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore:
Another solid three for a road favorite. This one rose from an opener of
-2. This has been a great rivalry where the teams traditionally play
very close games. Sharps would fade any public move off the three...and
would use Baltimore +8.5 if +2.5 in the game line came into play.
Baltimore would be getting much more Sharp respect if the offense hadn't
struggled so much this season, but they will likely back them here
nonetheless, as many are skeptical about Pittsburgh's offense.
Tennessee at Houston:
Early interest on Tennessee -1 and -1.5, but the move stopped at the
two. Houston +8 is appealing to Sharp teaser players, and Deshaun Watson
impressed last week at New England. Will be interesting to see what the
public will do here. Both teams could fall back to earth after big
covers vs. tough opponents. Houston would get a lot of Sharp action at
+3 if the public moves the Titans that high. For now, Sharps who liked
Tennessee are already in, while those thinking about Houston prefer the
teaser route.
Jacksonville at NY Jets:
Possibly a tug-of-war setting up between Jacksonville -3 and the NY Jets
+3.5. The problem here is that it's still kind of tough to like those
teams no matter what the line is. Both are coming off blowout wins as
underdogs last week. Jags money can't be certain that Jacksonville will
play that well a second week in a row. The Jets still have "worst in the
league" kind of talent, which usually falls back to earth after a big
win. Probably a gentle tug-of-war from value bettors around the key
number.
Cincinnati at Cleveland:
The opener of Cincinnati -4 is down to a solid -3. Cleveland and the
other bad teams are getting Sharp respect as home underdogs. Kinda
strange still, as Sharps won big with the Bengals last week, but as I
said earlier, winless teams get Sharp interest early in the season.
Helps that the Browns lost on the road last week rather than being in a
letdown spot. Cincinnati has struggled all season outside of the first
half at Green Bay. Sharps like the Browns +3...and would really like the
Browns +8.5 in teasers if the game line drops to +2.5.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore:
Another solid three for a road favorite. This one rose from an opener of
-2. This has been a great rivalry where the teams traditionally play
very close games. Sharps would fade any public move off the three...and
would use Baltimore +8.5 if +2.5 in the game line came into play.
Baltimore would be getting much more Sharp respect if the offense hadn't
struggled so much this season, but they will likely back them here
nonetheless, as many are skeptical about Pittsburgh's offense.
Buffalo at Atlanta:
This one has been a solid Atlanta -8 all week. That puts the Falcons in
the teaser window. They're already in a lot of two-teamers with Green
Bay -1.5 from Thursday night. I wouldn't be shocked if some stores lift
this one to -9 on Sunday just to avoid Atlanta -2 or -2.5 in teasers.
That would leave them one-sided on the road dog plus the high number,
but that's a less scary position for sportsbooks to take at this site
with a home favorite capable of running up the score. Sharps are waiting
to see what's the best line they can get with Buffalo, who are a
perfect 3-0 ats thus far.
NY Giants at Tampa Bay:
The opener of Tampa Bay -4 has been bet down to a solid three
everywhere. The Giants finally started to look like themselves in the
fourth quarter at Philadelphia last week, and Sharps like betting
winless teams in the first quarter of the season. Tampa Bay was
gift-wrapped a win over Chicago before looking awful at Minnesota.
Sharps would fade any public move off the three in either direction.
Philadelphia at the LA Chargers:
Some Sharp interest on the winless Chargers. An opener of LAC -1 is up
to -1.5. That's enough to put the Eagles in the teaser window for a move
to +7.5. Sharps generally don't like backing road teams on a long trip
in a divisional letdown spot. There's so little faith in the Chargers
and their coach right now that Sharps didn't pound this great scheduling
situation like they normally would.
San Francisco at Arizona:
Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between San Francisco +7 and Arizona
-6.5. The Niners are getting that "Thursday night respect" with extra
rest, particularly against a team that just played Monday Night. But the
public doesn't mind laying less than a TD against bad teams, and they
still see SF as a bad team. Sharps REALLY like the dog getting seven
here.
Oakland at Denver:
Definitely a tug-of-war in play already...and it could be a dangerous
one because Denver winning exactly by three is a likely outcome in an
important divisional game matching two quality teams. Sharp money moved
the line early from an opener of Denver -1 to 2.5 and to the key number
of 3. Raiders money comes in on the 3 and Sharps also have Oakland in
teasers at +8.5. If the game lands exactly on the three...no bettors
lose and sports books take a bath!
Buffalo at Atlanta:
This one has been a solid Atlanta -8 all week. That puts the Falcons in
the teaser window. They're already in a lot of two-teamers with Green
Bay -1.5 from Thursday night. I wouldn't be shocked if some stores lift
this one to -9 on Sunday just to avoid Atlanta -2 or -2.5 in teasers.
That would leave them one-sided on the road dog plus the high number,
but that's a less scary position for sportsbooks to take at this site
with a home favorite capable of running up the score. Sharps are waiting
to see what's the best line they can get with Buffalo, who are a
perfect 3-0 ats thus far.
NY Giants at Tampa Bay:
The opener of Tampa Bay -4 has been bet down to a solid three
everywhere. The Giants finally started to look like themselves in the
fourth quarter at Philadelphia last week, and Sharps like betting
winless teams in the first quarter of the season. Tampa Bay was
gift-wrapped a win over Chicago before looking awful at Minnesota.
Sharps would fade any public move off the three in either direction.
Philadelphia at the LA Chargers:
Some Sharp interest on the winless Chargers. An opener of LAC -1 is up
to -1.5. That's enough to put the Eagles in the teaser window for a move
to +7.5. Sharps generally don't like backing road teams on a long trip
in a divisional letdown spot. There's so little faith in the Chargers
and their coach right now that Sharps didn't pound this great scheduling
situation like they normally would.
San Francisco at Arizona:
Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between San Francisco +7 and Arizona
-6.5. The Niners are getting that "Thursday night respect" with extra
rest, particularly against a team that just played Monday Night. But the
public doesn't mind laying less than a TD against bad teams, and they
still see SF as a bad team. Sharps REALLY like the dog getting seven
here.
Oakland at Denver:
Definitely a tug-of-war in play already...and it could be a dangerous
one because Denver winning exactly by three is a likely outcome in an
important divisional game matching two quality teams. Sharp money moved
the line early from an opener of Denver -1 to 2.5 and to the key number
of 3. Raiders money comes in on the 3 and Sharps also have Oakland in
teasers at +8.5. If the game lands exactly on the three...no bettors
lose and sports books take a bath!
Indianapolis at Seattle:
This might be one of the least bet Sunday night games ever! Seattle
opened at -12, and was quickly bet up to -13 where it has been all week.
Nobody wants this big ugly dog on the road against a solid defense.
Nobody wants to lay a number that tall because Seattle's offense has
struggled so much. Old school dog lovers are waiting to see if +13.5 or
+14 might come into play on game day. They're confident +13 isn't about
to disappear because the public still likes Seattle at home even at this
price!
MONDAY NIGHT
Washington at Kansas City:
Kansas City has looked great this season, but many Sharps are still
skeptical that they're suddenly a Super Bowl team. That's why
Philadelphia took so much Wise Guy money on this field two weeks ago,
and why Washington might do the same on Monday. Some stores are testing
-6.5 as I write this. Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up between
Washington +7 and Kansas City -6.5. The public might need to have a good
Sunday to come in heavily on this TV home favorite.
That's it for week 4, good luck to all in the Den!!!
Indianapolis at Seattle:
This might be one of the least bet Sunday night games ever! Seattle
opened at -12, and was quickly bet up to -13 where it has been all week.
Nobody wants this big ugly dog on the road against a solid defense.
Nobody wants to lay a number that tall because Seattle's offense has
struggled so much. Old school dog lovers are waiting to see if +13.5 or
+14 might come into play on game day. They're confident +13 isn't about
to disappear because the public still likes Seattle at home even at this
price!
MONDAY NIGHT
Washington at Kansas City:
Kansas City has looked great this season, but many Sharps are still
skeptical that they're suddenly a Super Bowl team. That's why
Philadelphia took so much Wise Guy money on this field two weeks ago,
and why Washington might do the same on Monday. Some stores are testing
-6.5 as I write this. Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up between
Washington +7 and Kansas City -6.5. The public might need to have a good
Sunday to come in heavily on this TV home favorite.
That's it for week 4, good luck to all in the Den!!!
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