**Really disappointed I did not bet on USF and the over tonight. Were both my leans but decided to stay away from the game due to possible Hurricane Irma hangover. Oh well - money to be made tomorrow.
Below are my write-ups for the games. Some will be more in depth than others. Hope you enjoy.
*Confidence Rating = (CR)
Purdue @ Missouri: Purdue +7 (1u) & U76 (1.5u) (CR: 7/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 24.6 (PU) - 35.6 *Sportsline Prediction: 33 (PU) - 38 *Sagarin Prediction: 30 (PU) - 43 *Purdue is 8-1 ATS in last 9 games on the road *Total has gone under in 5 of last 7 Mizzou games (U in 4 of last 5 home). *Mizzou is 2-4 ATS in last 6 home games *Mizzou just fired Def Coordinator after 2nd game. *Purdue has now put on 2 good performances against 2 good (and well coached) football teams. Team headed in the right direction. *Purdue looks like it has found its QB and committing to Blough. *Mizzou was held to 13 points last week by SCAR. And Lock thew 2 picks. *Mizzou has only scored over 30 points ONE TIME in the past 2 seasons vs a Big 5 team. *I am beginning to believe Brohm has Purdue headed in the right direction. If they can get the run game going they should win this game outright. Mizzou will make the mistakes as they always do. LA TECH @ WKU: O63 (1.5u) (CR: 7/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 30.5 (LT) - 46.6 *Sportsline Prediction: 29 - 42 *Sagarin Prediction: 33.4 - 46.7 *LT has gone OVER in 10 of last 11 games (7 of 8 on road). *LT last 4 games have gone OVER 76 points *These 2 teams played last Dec in the CUSA Champ to a final score of 58-44 in which WKU won. (55-52 game earlier last season) *Last 3 games between these 2 teams has an avg total of 95ppg. *With all that being said -- I know these two teams have lost a lot of offensive weapons from last season. Both teams have struggled offensively (Especially the 'Toppers). *I think WKU knows they need to get their offense rolling and LT is just the defense to do it against (allowing 425ypg and 40ppg thus far). Tulane @ Oklahoma: O55 (1u) (CR: 6/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 18.3 - 52.7 *Sportsline Prediction: 12 - 53 *Sagarin Prediction: 16.5 - 48.1 *The trends would not suggest an OVER play. OU has gone under in 5 of last 6 games at home. TUL has gone under in 4 of last 6 games overall. *Tulane's option will slow the game down and bleed clock. *This could be an opportunity for OU to look ahead to Big 12 play after a big win. *BUT Oklahoma has gone UNDER 55 JUST THREE TIMES in their last 23 games. (Last week vs. OSU (47), in '16 bowl game vs Auburn (54 total) and in '15 bowl game vs Clemson (54 total)) *Tulane does not have the bodies to slow down this offense and the option of TUL will cause some confusion and lead to 2+ scores for them. Tulane QB - Banks - is talented and will make big plays. They impressed last week vs Navy. *OU will score 40+
Oregon @ Wyoming: O62 (1u) (CR: 6.5/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 36 - 32.5 (WYO) *Sportsline Prediction: 47 - 26 *Sagarin Prediction: 46.3 - 44.8 *Oregon has gone OVER in 8 of last 11 games *Oregon score vs NEB deceiving - was 42-14 at half. AND Ducks have scored 42 points in 1H of both games this season. *Oreg has scored 21 points in 5 of 8 quarters played this season. The offense is rolling and they can score in bunches. *Two teams with contrasting styles -- WYO wants to possess the ball and OREG wants to run as many plays as possible. The pace will be set early and likely dictate the outcome of the O/U. *Oreg defense is still questionable and will make mistakes. And against a talented QB (Allen) he will have to take advantage of that. *Freeman and Herbert have been as good as advertised thus far and I expect them to continue to roll and put up 42+. If they get on a run early and the pace quickens they could put up 60. *The fear is WYO controls early clock and Oregon sputters on the road with conference play on its mind. Hopefully Taggert has them ready to roll.
**Really disappointed I did not bet on USF and the over tonight. Were both my leans but decided to stay away from the game due to possible Hurricane Irma hangover. Oh well - money to be made tomorrow.
Below are my write-ups for the games. Some will be more in depth than others. Hope you enjoy.
*Confidence Rating = (CR)
Purdue @ Missouri: Purdue +7 (1u) & U76 (1.5u) (CR: 7/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 24.6 (PU) - 35.6 *Sportsline Prediction: 33 (PU) - 38 *Sagarin Prediction: 30 (PU) - 43 *Purdue is 8-1 ATS in last 9 games on the road *Total has gone under in 5 of last 7 Mizzou games (U in 4 of last 5 home). *Mizzou is 2-4 ATS in last 6 home games *Mizzou just fired Def Coordinator after 2nd game. *Purdue has now put on 2 good performances against 2 good (and well coached) football teams. Team headed in the right direction. *Purdue looks like it has found its QB and committing to Blough. *Mizzou was held to 13 points last week by SCAR. And Lock thew 2 picks. *Mizzou has only scored over 30 points ONE TIME in the past 2 seasons vs a Big 5 team. *I am beginning to believe Brohm has Purdue headed in the right direction. If they can get the run game going they should win this game outright. Mizzou will make the mistakes as they always do. LA TECH @ WKU: O63 (1.5u) (CR: 7/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 30.5 (LT) - 46.6 *Sportsline Prediction: 29 - 42 *Sagarin Prediction: 33.4 - 46.7 *LT has gone OVER in 10 of last 11 games (7 of 8 on road). *LT last 4 games have gone OVER 76 points *These 2 teams played last Dec in the CUSA Champ to a final score of 58-44 in which WKU won. (55-52 game earlier last season) *Last 3 games between these 2 teams has an avg total of 95ppg. *With all that being said -- I know these two teams have lost a lot of offensive weapons from last season. Both teams have struggled offensively (Especially the 'Toppers). *I think WKU knows they need to get their offense rolling and LT is just the defense to do it against (allowing 425ypg and 40ppg thus far). Tulane @ Oklahoma: O55 (1u) (CR: 6/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 18.3 - 52.7 *Sportsline Prediction: 12 - 53 *Sagarin Prediction: 16.5 - 48.1 *The trends would not suggest an OVER play. OU has gone under in 5 of last 6 games at home. TUL has gone under in 4 of last 6 games overall. *Tulane's option will slow the game down and bleed clock. *This could be an opportunity for OU to look ahead to Big 12 play after a big win. *BUT Oklahoma has gone UNDER 55 JUST THREE TIMES in their last 23 games. (Last week vs. OSU (47), in '16 bowl game vs Auburn (54 total) and in '15 bowl game vs Clemson (54 total)) *Tulane does not have the bodies to slow down this offense and the option of TUL will cause some confusion and lead to 2+ scores for them. Tulane QB - Banks - is talented and will make big plays. They impressed last week vs Navy. *OU will score 40+
Oregon @ Wyoming: O62 (1u) (CR: 6.5/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 36 - 32.5 (WYO) *Sportsline Prediction: 47 - 26 *Sagarin Prediction: 46.3 - 44.8 *Oregon has gone OVER in 8 of last 11 games *Oregon score vs NEB deceiving - was 42-14 at half. AND Ducks have scored 42 points in 1H of both games this season. *Oreg has scored 21 points in 5 of 8 quarters played this season. The offense is rolling and they can score in bunches. *Two teams with contrasting styles -- WYO wants to possess the ball and OREG wants to run as many plays as possible. The pace will be set early and likely dictate the outcome of the O/U. *Oreg defense is still questionable and will make mistakes. And against a talented QB (Allen) he will have to take advantage of that. *Freeman and Herbert have been as good as advertised thus far and I expect them to continue to roll and put up 42+. If they get on a run early and the pace quickens they could put up 60. *The fear is WYO controls early clock and Oregon sputters on the road with conference play on its mind. Hopefully Taggert has them ready to roll.
Iowa St. @ Akron: ISU -10 (1u) (CR:6.5/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 24.6 (ISU) - 12 *Sportsline Prediction: 46 (ISU) - 25 *Sagarin Prediction: 38.5 (ISU) - 23.5 *ISU is 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games *Akron 1-5-1 ATS at home last 7 games *I think if ISU was able to close out the game vs Iowa with a W this line would be more in the range 14-17. *ISU has found a QB to make plays down the field. And Lazard at WR will overmatch Akron. *Akron just is not good at anything -- QB Woodson is below average -- and nothing on this roster impresses. *I think ISU will get out to a bit of a sluggish start - but this team has bowl aspirations and will need to win this game. Their talent (weird saying that for ISU) will take over.
Stanford @ SDSU: Stan -8 (1u) (CR:6.5/10) *Stanford will not come out flat 2 weeks in a row. Shaw doesn't let his team do that. He, especially, won't let the defense play poorly 2 weeks in a row. *Stanford will run away with this game. If not, this team is in trouble this year...
VT @ ECU: VT -22 (1u) (CR:6/10) *Oddshark prediction: 40.2 - 6.2 *Sportsline prediction: 49 - 20 *Sagarin prediction: 42.6 - 17.8 *VT was embarrassed by ECU their last trip to Greenville NC 2 years ago. (losing by a TD as 10 points favorites) *ECU is certainly not the same team. Losing to WVU 56-20 and JMU 34-14. VT beat that same WVU team by a TD. *ECU is 130th in the country in total defense. *Fuente has VT offense headed in the right direction. Grooming a young stud in Jackson at QB *It is questionable Sirk (ECU QB) will play --- frankly it won't make a difference whether or not he does. *VT Defense just as strong as years past. *This game could get out of hand.
Iowa St. @ Akron: ISU -10 (1u) (CR:6.5/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 24.6 (ISU) - 12 *Sportsline Prediction: 46 (ISU) - 25 *Sagarin Prediction: 38.5 (ISU) - 23.5 *ISU is 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games *Akron 1-5-1 ATS at home last 7 games *I think if ISU was able to close out the game vs Iowa with a W this line would be more in the range 14-17. *ISU has found a QB to make plays down the field. And Lazard at WR will overmatch Akron. *Akron just is not good at anything -- QB Woodson is below average -- and nothing on this roster impresses. *I think ISU will get out to a bit of a sluggish start - but this team has bowl aspirations and will need to win this game. Their talent (weird saying that for ISU) will take over.
Stanford @ SDSU: Stan -8 (1u) (CR:6.5/10) *Stanford will not come out flat 2 weeks in a row. Shaw doesn't let his team do that. He, especially, won't let the defense play poorly 2 weeks in a row. *Stanford will run away with this game. If not, this team is in trouble this year...
VT @ ECU: VT -22 (1u) (CR:6/10) *Oddshark prediction: 40.2 - 6.2 *Sportsline prediction: 49 - 20 *Sagarin prediction: 42.6 - 17.8 *VT was embarrassed by ECU their last trip to Greenville NC 2 years ago. (losing by a TD as 10 points favorites) *ECU is certainly not the same team. Losing to WVU 56-20 and JMU 34-14. VT beat that same WVU team by a TD. *ECU is 130th in the country in total defense. *Fuente has VT offense headed in the right direction. Grooming a young stud in Jackson at QB *It is questionable Sirk (ECU QB) will play --- frankly it won't make a difference whether or not he does. *VT Defense just as strong as years past. *This game could get out of hand.
Tennessee @ Florida: TEN +4 (1u) (CRL: 6/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 21.8 (TEN) - 14.2 *Sportsline Prediction: 24 (TEN) - 22 *Sagarin Prediction: 28.1 (TEN) - 23.7 *Yes, Ten is 1-9 in last 10 vs FL. But, they got the monkey off their back last year. *FL offensive struggles continued vs MICH 2 weeks ago. Only 2 TD's that game came from the defense. FL will be playing off a week off due to Irma. *I think FL would've loved to have a 'warm-up' game to get things settled on offense *FL gave up 6 sacks to Michigan. And QB play is still a question -- Zaire or Franks? In addition to all these questions -- don't forget all the players missing due to suspension. *TEN QB situation isn't great either - but Dormady helped put up 42 points against GT in Atlanta. *TEN playmakers (Kelly at RB and Callaway at WR) will have to help the QB out. *We will find out who these two teams will be this season today.
Tennessee @ Florida: TEN +4 (1u) (CRL: 6/10) *Oddshark Prediction: 21.8 (TEN) - 14.2 *Sportsline Prediction: 24 (TEN) - 22 *Sagarin Prediction: 28.1 (TEN) - 23.7 *Yes, Ten is 1-9 in last 10 vs FL. But, they got the monkey off their back last year. *FL offensive struggles continued vs MICH 2 weeks ago. Only 2 TD's that game came from the defense. FL will be playing off a week off due to Irma. *I think FL would've loved to have a 'warm-up' game to get things settled on offense *FL gave up 6 sacks to Michigan. And QB play is still a question -- Zaire or Franks? In addition to all these questions -- don't forget all the players missing due to suspension. *TEN QB situation isn't great either - but Dormady helped put up 42 points against GT in Atlanta. *TEN playmakers (Kelly at RB and Callaway at WR) will have to help the QB out. *We will find out who these two teams will be this season today.
Not as confident this week as was in the first 2 weeks. Goin' against some home dogs but felt like the numbers were right and plays are supported by the statistics. Hopefully it doesn't bite me in the a$$.
**Looking forward to Clemson vs Louisville tonight. I think CLEM def is as good as any we have seen in a long time in college football. LOU OL is worrisome. If CLEM takes Jaylon Smith away from Jackson as a weapon, will be tough sledding and force Jackson to make every play with his feet. I think CLEM will wear LOU down defensively. Should be a good game but I think CLEM wins by 7+**
Not as confident this week as was in the first 2 weeks. Goin' against some home dogs but felt like the numbers were right and plays are supported by the statistics. Hopefully it doesn't bite me in the a$$.
**Looking forward to Clemson vs Louisville tonight. I think CLEM def is as good as any we have seen in a long time in college football. LOU OL is worrisome. If CLEM takes Jaylon Smith away from Jackson as a weapon, will be tough sledding and force Jackson to make every play with his feet. I think CLEM will wear LOU down defensively. Should be a good game but I think CLEM wins by 7+**
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