Lots of expectations for a young Raiders team this year due to there last year’s run. This is a darkhorse team for many and maybe so, however, Oakland won far too many games last season in the final 2 minutes. The last “high expectation” team to win this high of a percentage of their games by a touchdown or less was the Panthers in 2016 when they went 15-1. The following season they went 6-10. Most games that are decided by 1 play here or there could have gone either way and aren’t a true indicator of them playing well over the course of the season. The Raiders went 12-4 in 2016 however, 8 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. This 12-4 team was also -1.8 net yards per game for the entire season. Here in week 1, they are playing a road game against one of the most underrated defenses in the league. A maturing Titans team that won their final 4 home games last season including games against the Packers, Broncos, and Texans limiting them to 17 points per game average. This is also a revenge game for the Titans off a 17-10 home loss to the Raiders last season in a game where they committed 3 turnovers.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
You can make a case that this is the biggest game of the year for JAX, they’ve started each season 0-1 for the past 5 years, and are facing a divisional rival that beat them in two very close games last year. Small road dogs in week 1 are 14-3 ATS since 1998 against divisional opponents that swept them last year. Both games last season, the Jags came up just short each time 24-21, and 21-20. This is a divisional opponent for Houston; however, they’ve beat them 6 times in a row, have upcoming road games against the Bengals and Patriots on deck including one that is just 3 days later on Thursday, and have the hurricane on their minds as well. Tough to see Houston being completely focused for Jacksonville here. Additionally, the Texans are nowhere as good as their 9-7 record from last year shows. They had a cupcake schedule, and were still a -49 in season point differential. Jacksonville on the other hand, was #11 in the NFL last year in net yards per game differential. Just 3-13 on the year but they lost a staggering 8 games by a TD or less. This team was competitive last year and the books have noticed giving them an expected 7 wins for this season, a clear upgrade from 2016. I expect the Jags to take this one SU.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Everybody knows the Jets are going to be the worst team in the league this year, but lets not pretend like the Bills will be any good. Buffalo is expected to win 6 games this year. Why would an expected 6 win team be double digit favorites against a divisional rival? A bad team with a brand new coach is now expected to blowout a divisional opponent - this usually doesn’t turn out well. This one is tough to bet as the Jets look beyond terrible, but that’s one thing that can help them come together after an offseason of being the laughing stock of the league. The city of NY has been bashing them and publicly acknowledging that the team is tanking. The players here this, and it definitely pisses them off. “I don't think any player is going to tank," the 25-year-old said. "Our jobs are on the line. Our families depend on us. We're out there to work and get our paycheck and win games. People are always going to say that kind of stuff, but we're here to play."Additionally, Road Dogs who won 6 or less games last season facing a team that won 5-12 games are 47-19 ATS (71%) in week 1. (applies to Jags, Jets, Chargers)
Lots of expectations for a young Raiders team this year due to there last year’s run. This is a darkhorse team for many and maybe so, however, Oakland won far too many games last season in the final 2 minutes. The last “high expectation” team to win this high of a percentage of their games by a touchdown or less was the Panthers in 2016 when they went 15-1. The following season they went 6-10. Most games that are decided by 1 play here or there could have gone either way and aren’t a true indicator of them playing well over the course of the season. The Raiders went 12-4 in 2016 however, 8 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. This 12-4 team was also -1.8 net yards per game for the entire season. Here in week 1, they are playing a road game against one of the most underrated defenses in the league. A maturing Titans team that won their final 4 home games last season including games against the Packers, Broncos, and Texans limiting them to 17 points per game average. This is also a revenge game for the Titans off a 17-10 home loss to the Raiders last season in a game where they committed 3 turnovers.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
You can make a case that this is the biggest game of the year for JAX, they’ve started each season 0-1 for the past 5 years, and are facing a divisional rival that beat them in two very close games last year. Small road dogs in week 1 are 14-3 ATS since 1998 against divisional opponents that swept them last year. Both games last season, the Jags came up just short each time 24-21, and 21-20. This is a divisional opponent for Houston; however, they’ve beat them 6 times in a row, have upcoming road games against the Bengals and Patriots on deck including one that is just 3 days later on Thursday, and have the hurricane on their minds as well. Tough to see Houston being completely focused for Jacksonville here. Additionally, the Texans are nowhere as good as their 9-7 record from last year shows. They had a cupcake schedule, and were still a -49 in season point differential. Jacksonville on the other hand, was #11 in the NFL last year in net yards per game differential. Just 3-13 on the year but they lost a staggering 8 games by a TD or less. This team was competitive last year and the books have noticed giving them an expected 7 wins for this season, a clear upgrade from 2016. I expect the Jags to take this one SU.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Everybody knows the Jets are going to be the worst team in the league this year, but lets not pretend like the Bills will be any good. Buffalo is expected to win 6 games this year. Why would an expected 6 win team be double digit favorites against a divisional rival? A bad team with a brand new coach is now expected to blowout a divisional opponent - this usually doesn’t turn out well. This one is tough to bet as the Jets look beyond terrible, but that’s one thing that can help them come together after an offseason of being the laughing stock of the league. The city of NY has been bashing them and publicly acknowledging that the team is tanking. The players here this, and it definitely pisses them off. “I don't think any player is going to tank," the 25-year-old said. "Our jobs are on the line. Our families depend on us. We're out there to work and get our paycheck and win games. People are always going to say that kind of stuff, but we're here to play."Additionally, Road Dogs who won 6 or less games last season facing a team that won 5-12 games are 47-19 ATS (71%) in week 1. (applies to Jags, Jets, Chargers)
The Seahawks were 8-3 prior to Earl Thomas getting injured for the year last season. The Superbowl Champ Patriots are 10-0 their last 10 games. The last team to beat them? A healthy Seattle team going into New England and winning 31-24 with Gronk on the field. This is the first game back for Earl Thomas in what is a prove it game to show they are still #1 in the NFC. What better situation will their be then to go into Green Bay and get revenge for their biggest loss of the season last year 38-10. Nothing went right for Seattle that game who committed 6 turnovers. There is a reason this line hasn’t budged off -3 all offseason, Seattle will bring it here.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Big time revenge game for San Francisco here. After shutting out the Vikings in week 1 last season 28-0, the 49ers got blown out in Carolina 27-46 which started a downward spiral of 14 straight losses. 49ers will be better this year under Hoyer and with an improved defense. Bowman was one of the league’s best linebackers before his injury, and has publicy came out feeling disrespected for not making the top 100 players in the NFL list. This is a prove it game for him and since he’s the team’s leader, he’ll have his defense pumped. Yes 49ers aren’t a great team, but the Panthers are still being highly overrated due to their 2015 run. They are not even close to the same team.
The Seahawks were 8-3 prior to Earl Thomas getting injured for the year last season. The Superbowl Champ Patriots are 10-0 their last 10 games. The last team to beat them? A healthy Seattle team going into New England and winning 31-24 with Gronk on the field. This is the first game back for Earl Thomas in what is a prove it game to show they are still #1 in the NFC. What better situation will their be then to go into Green Bay and get revenge for their biggest loss of the season last year 38-10. Nothing went right for Seattle that game who committed 6 turnovers. There is a reason this line hasn’t budged off -3 all offseason, Seattle will bring it here.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Big time revenge game for San Francisco here. After shutting out the Vikings in week 1 last season 28-0, the 49ers got blown out in Carolina 27-46 which started a downward spiral of 14 straight losses. 49ers will be better this year under Hoyer and with an improved defense. Bowman was one of the league’s best linebackers before his injury, and has publicy came out feeling disrespected for not making the top 100 players in the NFL list. This is a prove it game for him and since he’s the team’s leader, he’ll have his defense pumped. Yes 49ers aren’t a great team, but the Panthers are still being highly overrated due to their 2015 run. They are not even close to the same team.
Don't agree with Jax as any other week, I would agree with you on the motivational stuff, but IMO not Week 1. I can't imagine any team in any situation would be looking ahead to Week 2.
Don't agree with Jax as any other week, I would agree with you on the motivational stuff, but IMO not Week 1. I can't imagine any team in any situation would be looking ahead to Week 2.
Great write ups! You are a solid capper. Thanks for sharing my friend
Also any thoughts on tonights game? I'm thinking about buying 1 point down to -7 and take the pats i also like the over. it is set at 48 right now. Any feedback will be much appriciated
Great write ups! You are a solid capper. Thanks for sharing my friend
Also any thoughts on tonights game? I'm thinking about buying 1 point down to -7 and take the pats i also like the over. it is set at 48 right now. Any feedback will be much appriciated
Disagree with Jags. Texans will be the more motivated squad. They will win for the city of Houston and the people. Hurricane Harvey angle. When the Astros returned home, they swept the Mets. Following Katrina, Saints won Super Bowl. There is no way Jags win su. Maybe cover. I'll be on Texans ml parlay with Patriots ml for even money.
Like your titans n niners pick. Glad to see you back posting
Disagree with Jags. Texans will be the more motivated squad. They will win for the city of Houston and the people. Hurricane Harvey angle. When the Astros returned home, they swept the Mets. Following Katrina, Saints won Super Bowl. There is no way Jags win su. Maybe cover. I'll be on Texans ml parlay with Patriots ml for even money.
Like your titans n niners pick. Glad to see you back posting
[Quote: Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE] Disagree with Jags. Texans will be the more motivated squad. They will win for the city of Houston and the people. Hurricane Harvey angle. When the Astros returned home, they swept the Mets. Following Katrina, Saints won Super Bowl. There is no way Jags win su. Maybe cover. I'll be on Texans ml parlay with Patriots ml for even money.
Double edge sword here with the motivational angle Balling.....Jacksonville and their people are in for major storm themselves and can use a little comforting also and Jacksonville WILL be motivated just as well and are a better club then Houston In my handicapping......Take the points here
[Quote: Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE] Disagree with Jags. Texans will be the more motivated squad. They will win for the city of Houston and the people. Hurricane Harvey angle. When the Astros returned home, they swept the Mets. Following Katrina, Saints won Super Bowl. There is no way Jags win su. Maybe cover. I'll be on Texans ml parlay with Patriots ml for even money.
Double edge sword here with the motivational angle Balling.....Jacksonville and their people are in for major storm themselves and can use a little comforting also and Jacksonville WILL be motivated just as well and are a better club then Houston In my handicapping......Take the points here
Disagree with Jags. Texans will be the more motivated squad. They will win for the city of Houston and the people. Hurricane Harvey angle. When the Astros returned home, they swept the Mets. Following Katrina, Saints won Super Bowl. There is no way Jags win su. Maybe cover. I'll be on Texans ml parlay with Patriots ml for even money.
Like your titans n niners pick. Glad to see you back posting
That's a non-factor. Jacksonville has a similar situation going on in Florida as well but besides that, they will be the more motivated team here. Why would HOU be extra motivated to beat a team they've beat 6 times in a row? Jacksonville will easily have a top 10 defense this year and they will be the more motivated squad. Tom Savage should have a very bad game
Disagree with Jags. Texans will be the more motivated squad. They will win for the city of Houston and the people. Hurricane Harvey angle. When the Astros returned home, they swept the Mets. Following Katrina, Saints won Super Bowl. There is no way Jags win su. Maybe cover. I'll be on Texans ml parlay with Patriots ml for even money.
Like your titans n niners pick. Glad to see you back posting
That's a non-factor. Jacksonville has a similar situation going on in Florida as well but besides that, they will be the more motivated team here. Why would HOU be extra motivated to beat a team they've beat 6 times in a row? Jacksonville will easily have a top 10 defense this year and they will be the more motivated squad. Tom Savage should have a very bad game
That's a non-factor. Jacksonville has a similar situation going on in Florida as well but besides that, they will be the more motivated team here. Why would HOU be extra motivated to beat a team they've beat 6 times in a row? Jacksonville will easily have a top 10 defense this year and they will be the more motivated squad. Tom Savage should have a very bad game
Good Point & GL LeagueCapper
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
That's a non-factor. Jacksonville has a similar situation going on in Florida as well but besides that, they will be the more motivated team here. Why would HOU be extra motivated to beat a team they've beat 6 times in a row? Jacksonville will easily have a top 10 defense this year and they will be the more motivated squad. Tom Savage should have a very bad game
Seattle took some big bets and has now been bet down to +2.5 which is pretty significant. Books are giving out -2.5 at home for Green Bay. Interesting to see if it closes at that #
Seattle took some big bets and has now been bet down to +2.5 which is pretty significant. Books are giving out -2.5 at home for Green Bay. Interesting to see if it closes at that #
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