I know Chiefs, Seahawks and Packers looks like obvious picks... but i don't believe in gifts and easy lines... be careful with these road teams. I know they are better but any team in this league can show up in any given sunday... especially on win or go home situation... especially at home. Forget about the regular season games... nobody if these playoff teams care about them and nobody care about covering 5-6 point spread. Only wins (even by 1 point) count now. Backing hot teams like Chiefs and Hawks could be wrong and could be Both games are in field goal range for me... for now of course.
I know Chiefs, Seahawks and Packers looks like obvious picks... but i don't believe in gifts and easy lines... be careful with these road teams. I know they are better but any team in this league can show up in any given sunday... especially on win or go home situation... especially at home. Forget about the regular season games... nobody if these playoff teams care about them and nobody care about covering 5-6 point spread. Only wins (even by 1 point) count now. Backing hot teams like Chiefs and Hawks could be wrong and could be Both games are in field goal range for me... for now of course.
Agree 100%. Public perception is deception at times. I'll probably play one game this weekend (Steelers). When you look at a game and your first instinct is to hammer a side, it's usually the wrong one.
Agree 100%. Public perception is deception at times. I'll probably play one game this weekend (Steelers). When you look at a game and your first instinct is to hammer a side, it's usually the wrong one.
Since 2003 teams with 9+ straight up wins (Chiefs) are 1-14 ATS in postseason. In these 15 games we have just one dog, 2 road favorites and 12 home favorites. The road favorites are:
Jan 03, 2009 Saturday: Colts - 1 at Chargers 17-23 Jan 14, 2012
Saturday: Saints - 3.5 at Fortyniners 32-36 Jan 09, 2016 Saturday: Chiefs - 3 or 3.5 at Texans ??-??
This 1-14 ATS trend is not coincidence.... it seems the books inflate the lines of big streak winners (absolutely normal cause bettors love to bet on hot teams like Chiefs) and it seems they fail to cover the lines... nobody gives us free lunch... that's my points. I love Houston defense and this is ugly OT/FG type range of game and i will take the Texans plus field goal or more here with an ease.
Since 2003 teams with 9+ straight up wins (Chiefs) are 1-14 ATS in postseason. In these 15 games we have just one dog, 2 road favorites and 12 home favorites. The road favorites are:
Jan 03, 2009 Saturday: Colts - 1 at Chargers 17-23 Jan 14, 2012
Saturday: Saints - 3.5 at Fortyniners 32-36 Jan 09, 2016 Saturday: Chiefs - 3 or 3.5 at Texans ??-??
This 1-14 ATS trend is not coincidence.... it seems the books inflate the lines of big streak winners (absolutely normal cause bettors love to bet on hot teams like Chiefs) and it seems they fail to cover the lines... nobody gives us free lunch... that's my points. I love Houston defense and this is ugly OT/FG type range of game and i will take the Texans plus field goal or more here with an ease.
Since 2003 teams with 9+ straight up wins (Chiefs) are 1-14 ATS in postseason. In these 15 games we have just one dog, 2 road favorites and 12 home favorites. The road favorites are:
Jan 03, 2009 Saturday: Colts - 1 at Chargers 17-23 Jan 14, 2012
Saturday: Saints - 3.5 at Fortyniners 32-36 Jan 09, 2016 Saturday: Chiefs - 3 or 3.5 at Texans ??-??
This 1-14 ATS trend is not coincidence.... it seems the books inflate the lines of big streak winners (absolutely normal cause bettors love to bet on hot teams like Chiefs) and it seems they fail to cover the lines... nobody gives us free lunch... that's my points. I love Houston defense and this is ugly OT/FG type range of game and i will take the Texans plus field goal or more here with an ease.
Since 2003 teams with 9+ straight up wins (Chiefs) are 1-14 ATS in postseason. In these 15 games we have just one dog, 2 road favorites and 12 home favorites. The road favorites are:
Jan 03, 2009 Saturday: Colts - 1 at Chargers 17-23 Jan 14, 2012
Saturday: Saints - 3.5 at Fortyniners 32-36 Jan 09, 2016 Saturday: Chiefs - 3 or 3.5 at Texans ??-??
This 1-14 ATS trend is not coincidence.... it seems the books inflate the lines of big streak winners (absolutely normal cause bettors love to bet on hot teams like Chiefs) and it seems they fail to cover the lines... nobody gives us free lunch... that's my points. I love Houston defense and this is ugly OT/FG type range of game and i will take the Texans plus field goal or more here with an ease.
Yep! 9+ SU wins in a row (that include regular season and postseason games). These teams tend to fail covering the line in the postseason. You can type playoffs=1 and streak>8 in the sdql site that you use suuma and you will get the trend I know 15 games are not great sample size but here i don't think we have coincidence cause the trend is one of the most simple i have ever seen.
Yep! 9+ SU wins in a row (that include regular season and postseason games). These teams tend to fail covering the line in the postseason. You can type playoffs=1 and streak>8 in the sdql site that you use suuma and you will get the trend I know 15 games are not great sample size but here i don't think we have coincidence cause the trend is one of the most simple i have ever seen.
Teams with atleast X+ wins are X-X SU & X-X ATS in wildcard round:
6+ SU:
4-2-0 (6.50, 66.7%) ATS:
3-2-1 (2.33, 60.0%) 5+ SU:
9-3-0 (7.58, 75.0%) ATS:
7-4-1 (3.42, 63.6%) 4+ SU:
17-8-0 (5.00, 68.0%) ATS:
13-11-1 (2.48, 54.2%)
I don't know you understand my trend. I mean that since 2003 teams that won at least 9 consecutive (in a row) wins (like Chiefs right now!) are 1-14 ATS in the postseason.
Right now the Chiefs are on 10 games winning streak which get smaller sample size -> streak>9 and playoffs=1 which is 1-11 ATS...
Teams with atleast X+ wins are X-X SU & X-X ATS in wildcard round:
6+ SU:
4-2-0 (6.50, 66.7%) ATS:
3-2-1 (2.33, 60.0%) 5+ SU:
9-3-0 (7.58, 75.0%) ATS:
7-4-1 (3.42, 63.6%) 4+ SU:
17-8-0 (5.00, 68.0%) ATS:
13-11-1 (2.48, 54.2%)
I don't know you understand my trend. I mean that since 2003 teams that won at least 9 consecutive (in a row) wins (like Chiefs right now!) are 1-14 ATS in the postseason.
Right now the Chiefs are on 10 games winning streak which get smaller sample size -> streak>9 and playoffs=1 which is 1-11 ATS...
Since 1978 (i can't get vegas lines before that) we have only 5 situations in which there was 4+ points home dog in the postseason. Here are the games:
Sunday, January 8, 2012 Steelers 23@ Broncos 29 Vegas Line
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
Saturday, January 8, 2011 Saints 36 @ Seahawks 41 Vegas Line
New Orleans Saints -10.0
Saturday, December 30, 2000 Rams 28@Saints 31 Vegas Line
St. Louis Rams -5.5
Saturday, December 29, 1979 Eagles 17@ Buccaneers 24 Vegas Line
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Sunday, January 10, 2016 Seahawks ?? @ Vikings ?? Vegas Line Seattle Seahawks - 5 For now big (for postseason standards 4+ for the home team is really big number for me) home dogs cover 4-0 ATS in the NFL history and the most interesting part here is that they are 4-0 SU in these games. Do you think Vikings have a chance to repeat the history and make this 5-0... I think at least they have pretty good chance to cover here... 5 points are spicy and Hawks can win with a field goal in ugly game here....
Since 1978 (i can't get vegas lines before that) we have only 5 situations in which there was 4+ points home dog in the postseason. Here are the games:
Sunday, January 8, 2012 Steelers 23@ Broncos 29 Vegas Line
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
Saturday, January 8, 2011 Saints 36 @ Seahawks 41 Vegas Line
New Orleans Saints -10.0
Saturday, December 30, 2000 Rams 28@Saints 31 Vegas Line
St. Louis Rams -5.5
Saturday, December 29, 1979 Eagles 17@ Buccaneers 24 Vegas Line
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Sunday, January 10, 2016 Seahawks ?? @ Vikings ?? Vegas Line Seattle Seahawks - 5 For now big (for postseason standards 4+ for the home team is really big number for me) home dogs cover 4-0 ATS in the NFL history and the most interesting part here is that they are 4-0 SU in these games. Do you think Vikings have a chance to repeat the history and make this 5-0... I think at least they have pretty good chance to cover here... 5 points are spicy and Hawks can win with a field goal in ugly game here....
I know Chiefs, Seahawks and Packers looks like obvious picks... but i don't believe in gifts and easy lines... be careful with these road teams. I know they are better but any team in this league can show up in any given sunday... especially on win or go home situation... especially at home. Forget about the regular season games... nobody if these playoff teams care about them and nobody care about covering 5-6 point spread. Only wins (even by 1 point) count now. Backing hot teams like Chiefs and Hawks could be wrong and could be Both games are in field goal range for me... for now of course.
BOL
Vikings game is suppose to be -20 with wind chill included for the game per weather channel. the coldest the hawks have ever played in.I like the viks.
they are calling for rain here in the East on Sunday, could possibly be in Washington as well.I like the Skins here for the are on a roll with 4 straight wins. the packers have struggled at times but have more experience in the playoffs than the skins tho.
I'm going with KC and my bet is in already.KC beat the Texans at home the 1st game of the season and covered.
steelers-bengals is a toss up to me. Bengals do not have a very good record in the playoffs. I would say if Dalton doesn't play, Bengals have a chance of winning with A.J.McCarron at QB.These 2 teams have beat each other on the road this year. I wouldn't count Big Ben out either.
Usually the weather channel will tell u the forecast of the games.
I know Chiefs, Seahawks and Packers looks like obvious picks... but i don't believe in gifts and easy lines... be careful with these road teams. I know they are better but any team in this league can show up in any given sunday... especially on win or go home situation... especially at home. Forget about the regular season games... nobody if these playoff teams care about them and nobody care about covering 5-6 point spread. Only wins (even by 1 point) count now. Backing hot teams like Chiefs and Hawks could be wrong and could be Both games are in field goal range for me... for now of course.
BOL
Vikings game is suppose to be -20 with wind chill included for the game per weather channel. the coldest the hawks have ever played in.I like the viks.
they are calling for rain here in the East on Sunday, could possibly be in Washington as well.I like the Skins here for the are on a roll with 4 straight wins. the packers have struggled at times but have more experience in the playoffs than the skins tho.
I'm going with KC and my bet is in already.KC beat the Texans at home the 1st game of the season and covered.
steelers-bengals is a toss up to me. Bengals do not have a very good record in the playoffs. I would say if Dalton doesn't play, Bengals have a chance of winning with A.J.McCarron at QB.These 2 teams have beat each other on the road this year. I wouldn't count Big Ben out either.
Usually the weather channel will tell u the forecast of the games.
As i posted here in my thread. Since 2003 teams with 9+ straight up wins (Chiefs) are 1-14 ATS in postseason. I continue to believe this trend is no coincidence and there is very good logic behind it. I think the books put bad line for the hotter team in this situation and we have the pure edge to back the underdog. The line could be easily less than field goal... During KC 10 games winning streak they don't face much of good defenses... Denver (1st) and Baltimore (8th) were the legit ones. The other eight games were against
Pittsburgh (21st), Detroit (18th), San Diego twice (20th), Buffalo
(19th), Oakland twice (22nd), and Cleveland (27th). If we eliminate the first two we have pretty good cupcake defenses to win against. Now they face 3rd overall defense that play on amazing level (like 1st defense) in the second part of the season. I like that stat and i think Chiefs will struggle to score as Texans will of course. They game is pure field goal range and laying points at road against great defense is not good for me . I will gladly take the points.
Houston Texans + 3
Late Saturday game: At first i liked Steelers to cover but after i realized that without Williams, the Steelers are expecting to go with Fitzgerald Toussaint as the No. 1 rushing option i change my mind fast.Williams rushing for 76 yards and two red zone (1 yard) touchdowns during last meeting in Cincy. Cincinnati is giving up TDs on just 33 percent of their opponents’ red-zone tries at home. Their defense is very legit and without good ground game Steelers are predictable team and will have problems with passing too. Everybody who understand the game will see that. I will take the better overall team at home (where they are 6-2 good record) with field goal bonus. Don't give a damn about that Big Ben > AJ stuff. The football is not only QBs battle. If we cap only on QBs we all will be millionaires... I even like more that AJ will start not AD. The pressure of Bengals will be less this time cause they are underdogs and they are not supposed to beat on any price when Dalton is out. Cincinnati
Bengals + 3
Continue to lean Vikings and Packers on Sunday games but no bets yet.
As i posted here in my thread. Since 2003 teams with 9+ straight up wins (Chiefs) are 1-14 ATS in postseason. I continue to believe this trend is no coincidence and there is very good logic behind it. I think the books put bad line for the hotter team in this situation and we have the pure edge to back the underdog. The line could be easily less than field goal... During KC 10 games winning streak they don't face much of good defenses... Denver (1st) and Baltimore (8th) were the legit ones. The other eight games were against
Pittsburgh (21st), Detroit (18th), San Diego twice (20th), Buffalo
(19th), Oakland twice (22nd), and Cleveland (27th). If we eliminate the first two we have pretty good cupcake defenses to win against. Now they face 3rd overall defense that play on amazing level (like 1st defense) in the second part of the season. I like that stat and i think Chiefs will struggle to score as Texans will of course. They game is pure field goal range and laying points at road against great defense is not good for me . I will gladly take the points.
Houston Texans + 3
Late Saturday game: At first i liked Steelers to cover but after i realized that without Williams, the Steelers are expecting to go with Fitzgerald Toussaint as the No. 1 rushing option i change my mind fast.Williams rushing for 76 yards and two red zone (1 yard) touchdowns during last meeting in Cincy. Cincinnati is giving up TDs on just 33 percent of their opponents’ red-zone tries at home. Their defense is very legit and without good ground game Steelers are predictable team and will have problems with passing too. Everybody who understand the game will see that. I will take the better overall team at home (where they are 6-2 good record) with field goal bonus. Don't give a damn about that Big Ben > AJ stuff. The football is not only QBs battle. If we cap only on QBs we all will be millionaires... I even like more that AJ will start not AD. The pressure of Bengals will be less this time cause they are underdogs and they are not supposed to beat on any price when Dalton is out. Cincinnati
Bengals + 3
Continue to lean Vikings and Packers on Sunday games but no bets yet.
Since 1978 (i can't get vegas lines before that) we have only 5 situations in which there was 4+ points home dog in the postseason. Here are the games:
Sunday, January 8, 2012 Steelers 23@ Broncos 29 Vegas Line
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
Saturday, January 8, 2011 Saints 36 @ Seahawks 41 Vegas Line
New Orleans Saints -10.0
Saturday, December 30, 2000 Rams 28@Saints 31 Vegas Line
St. Louis Rams -5.5
Saturday, December 29, 1979 Eagles 17@ Buccaneers 24 Vegas Line
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Sunday, January 10, 2016 Seahawks ?? @ Vikings ?? Vegas Line Seattle Seahawks - 5 For now big (for postseason standards 4+ for the home team is really big number for me) home dogs cover 4-0 ATS in the NFL history and the most interesting part here is that they are 4-0 SU in these games. Do you think Vikings have a chance to repeat the history and make this 5-0... I think at least they have pretty good chance to cover here... 5 points are spicy and Hawks can win with a field goal in ugly game here....
Situational play. Laying many points for road favorite is not good idea as a whole. Taking:
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 (-125)
Interesting part is that Vikes + 5 and Vikes + 5.5 were on same price (-125) in my book. I gladly take the 5.5 I rare buy points cause this is long term losing strategy but somehow i feel really good when i see + 5.5
Since 1978 (i can't get vegas lines before that) we have only 5 situations in which there was 4+ points home dog in the postseason. Here are the games:
Sunday, January 8, 2012 Steelers 23@ Broncos 29 Vegas Line
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
Saturday, January 8, 2011 Saints 36 @ Seahawks 41 Vegas Line
New Orleans Saints -10.0
Saturday, December 30, 2000 Rams 28@Saints 31 Vegas Line
St. Louis Rams -5.5
Saturday, December 29, 1979 Eagles 17@ Buccaneers 24 Vegas Line
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Sunday, January 10, 2016 Seahawks ?? @ Vikings ?? Vegas Line Seattle Seahawks - 5 For now big (for postseason standards 4+ for the home team is really big number for me) home dogs cover 4-0 ATS in the NFL history and the most interesting part here is that they are 4-0 SU in these games. Do you think Vikings have a chance to repeat the history and make this 5-0... I think at least they have pretty good chance to cover here... 5 points are spicy and Hawks can win with a field goal in ugly game here....
Situational play. Laying many points for road favorite is not good idea as a whole. Taking:
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 (-125)
Interesting part is that Vikes + 5 and Vikes + 5.5 were on same price (-125) in my book. I gladly take the 5.5 I rare buy points cause this is long term losing strategy but somehow i feel really good when i see + 5.5
HOU has played a pretty cup cake schedule as well, the most recent stretch of dominant D performances have all come against so/so o-lines which plays to their strength (must be nice getting 6 games against TEN, JAX, IND).
HOU has played a pretty cup cake schedule as well, the most recent stretch of dominant D performances have all come against so/so o-lines which plays to their strength (must be nice getting 6 games against TEN, JAX, IND).
Agree 100%. Public perception is deception at times. I'll probably play one game this weekend (Steelers). When you look at a game and your first instinct is to hammer a side, it's usually the wrong one.
But wasn't your first instinct to hammer steelers?
Agree 100%. Public perception is deception at times. I'll probably play one game this weekend (Steelers). When you look at a game and your first instinct is to hammer a side, it's usually the wrong one.
But wasn't your first instinct to hammer steelers?
do you really believe in Hou. Your reasoning in the Pitt game is reasonable/understandable but a rare trend based on 3 games is not reasonable at all.bol either way.
do you really believe in Hou. Your reasoning in the Pitt game is reasonable/understandable but a rare trend based on 3 games is not reasonable at all.bol either way.
What i like in this 1-14 trend is not that it backs Texans as a play. They aren't very good team and Chiefs are clearly better. But is every time the better team win especially on the playoffs ??? Of course no! There are so many examples during the years that the worse (on paper) team won against better (again on paper) team. I know that any team can show up at any given sunday... that's what i believe. And i believe that team who just won 10 straight games will get worse line in the first postseason game. Cause bettors like more betting on good winning teams. But that will give us barely 50% cover in long term. I prefer to bet on crap dog teams in NFL and laying 3 points at road for Chiefs for me is a bad line and bad bet tonight. I don't say to you that KC - 3 has no chance... KC are more than capable of winning... they are favorites.... but pregame i like my chances with the points. I had good feeling for the home side and when i found this trend i just love my pick. Every guy here look for trends that point to the side he want to play before that. We use than as an insuranse... that's all. I just post what i find and what i think have pretty good logic behind (like the trends i posted in my previous posts.) BOL guys... some of us will win some of us will lose tonight... the only sure thing is that the bookmakers will be again ahead
What i like in this 1-14 trend is not that it backs Texans as a play. They aren't very good team and Chiefs are clearly better. But is every time the better team win especially on the playoffs ??? Of course no! There are so many examples during the years that the worse (on paper) team won against better (again on paper) team. I know that any team can show up at any given sunday... that's what i believe. And i believe that team who just won 10 straight games will get worse line in the first postseason game. Cause bettors like more betting on good winning teams. But that will give us barely 50% cover in long term. I prefer to bet on crap dog teams in NFL and laying 3 points at road for Chiefs for me is a bad line and bad bet tonight. I don't say to you that KC - 3 has no chance... KC are more than capable of winning... they are favorites.... but pregame i like my chances with the points. I had good feeling for the home side and when i found this trend i just love my pick. Every guy here look for trends that point to the side he want to play before that. We use than as an insuranse... that's all. I just post what i find and what i think have pretty good logic behind (like the trends i posted in my previous posts.) BOL guys... some of us will win some of us will lose tonight... the only sure thing is that the bookmakers will be again ahead
Redskins schedule was garbage. They lost every game against legit playoff type opponents. I just can't take Cousins over Rodgers... no way. Packers o-line is garbage recently but i can't trust on Redskins defense ant the TO machine Kirk in his first playoff big pressure game against much more experienced team.
And as you know i like the numbers. Here you are one amazing trend. Teams that won less than 5 games in previous season (Washington Redskins) are 2-14 SU and 1-14-1 ATS in playoffs next season. Home teams are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Home favorite teams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. I don't know if this one is legit but i like it
Redskins schedule was garbage. They lost every game against legit playoff type opponents. I just can't take Cousins over Rodgers... no way. Packers o-line is garbage recently but i can't trust on Redskins defense ant the TO machine Kirk in his first playoff big pressure game against much more experienced team.
And as you know i like the numbers. Here you are one amazing trend. Teams that won less than 5 games in previous season (Washington Redskins) are 2-14 SU and 1-14-1 ATS in playoffs next season. Home teams are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Home favorite teams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. I don't know if this one is legit but i like it
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