I took Valpo last night @-2.5. The line has since moved to -3.5. In that regard i feel better about -2.5. But this game feels like a down to the wire nail biter tonight. It will be nationally televised, Horizon league conference championship game. Teams have split this year, both winning on their home courts.
Valpov has been good ats this year, going 16-11 overall, 9-6@home. Green Bay ats is 15-13 overall, 7-9 away. (1-4 ats away last 5)
SOS Valpo 206 SOS Green bay 89(this concerns me)
I love sophomore Alec Peters, 6'9 big that dominates the paint. Valpo edges out green bay in rebounding, slightly on defense mostly because of his presence. I am NOT too familiar w/ green bays big and power forward play and how they will fair against Valpo. I do know that green bays senior Keifer Sykes is their scoring leader each night at guard.
Valpo from the arc 6.68per game Green bay from the arc 4.35 per game
In championship games like these, it can always come down to free throw's.
Valpo 67.64% from the line Green bay 64.55% from the line
I see the homecourt in Valpo rocking tonight, a much helpful edge.
Any additional opinions and angles would be much appreciated. I lean to the under as well in this one.
I took Valpo last night @-2.5. The line has since moved to -3.5. In that regard i feel better about -2.5. But this game feels like a down to the wire nail biter tonight. It will be nationally televised, Horizon league conference championship game. Teams have split this year, both winning on their home courts.
Valpov has been good ats this year, going 16-11 overall, 9-6@home. Green Bay ats is 15-13 overall, 7-9 away. (1-4 ats away last 5)
SOS Valpo 206 SOS Green bay 89(this concerns me)
I love sophomore Alec Peters, 6'9 big that dominates the paint. Valpo edges out green bay in rebounding, slightly on defense mostly because of his presence. I am NOT too familiar w/ green bays big and power forward play and how they will fair against Valpo. I do know that green bays senior Keifer Sykes is their scoring leader each night at guard.
Valpo from the arc 6.68per game Green bay from the arc 4.35 per game
In championship games like these, it can always come down to free throw's.
Valpo 67.64% from the line Green bay 64.55% from the line
I see the homecourt in Valpo rocking tonight, a much helpful edge.
Any additional opinions and angles would be much appreciated. I lean to the under as well in this one.
Sykes a combined 6 for 30 (20%) in the 2 matchups this season. He's kicking behind right now and should have a good to great game tonight. Both games were super tight. T. Walker doubtful tonight. He was difference maker in the valpo win. That's my angle.
Sykes a combined 6 for 30 (20%) in the 2 matchups this season. He's kicking behind right now and should have a good to great game tonight. Both games were super tight. T. Walker doubtful tonight. He was difference maker in the valpo win. That's my angle.
I see a tightly contested game. Valpo is better on paper and recent form. If I had to pick though I'll take the points. Desperation for Both teams to make the tourney. I see under as well.
Should be noted that WGB beat valpo at home but did NOT cover, they won by a point.
I see a tightly contested game. Valpo is better on paper and recent form. If I had to pick though I'll take the points. Desperation for Both teams to make the tourney. I see under as well.
Should be noted that WGB beat valpo at home but did NOT cover, they won by a point.
Valpo has an average of 0.9 points more per game than green bay. it should be a tight game. it might be agood idea to buy a couple of points and make Valpo the underdog. then sit back and cash that ticket. i like doing that during tournament time sure you pay for it by laying more down but you turned favorite into a underdog and you dont sweat it. So many games are just won by a point or two during tournment time.
Valpo has an average of 0.9 points more per game than green bay. it should be a tight game. it might be agood idea to buy a couple of points and make Valpo the underdog. then sit back and cash that ticket. i like doing that during tournament time sure you pay for it by laying more down but you turned favorite into a underdog and you dont sweat it. So many games are just won by a point or two during tournment time.
OP had game at -2.5, the line is sitting at 4 now which is a big difference to me.
Also looking at Sagarin...
Green Bay Ranked 70 with SOS 169
Valpo Ranked 72 with SOS 202
Predicts Valpo by 3 points
So not quite the disparity in SOS mentioned by the OP
Valpo dominates the smart chart and takes the supergrid 4-2.
biggest supergrid stat is away team scoring vs home team defense...Valpo has a huge edge here. Valpo also has the rebounding edge according to supergrid.
OP had game at -2.5, the line is sitting at 4 now which is a big difference to me.
Also looking at Sagarin...
Green Bay Ranked 70 with SOS 169
Valpo Ranked 72 with SOS 202
Predicts Valpo by 3 points
So not quite the disparity in SOS mentioned by the OP
Valpo dominates the smart chart and takes the supergrid 4-2.
biggest supergrid stat is away team scoring vs home team defense...Valpo has a huge edge here. Valpo also has the rebounding edge according to supergrid.
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