Personally, I'd be happy to donate - imo, you should get rid of that way of thinking.
I don't like the play(s) myself - Sabres are BAAAAD. But - "Any given Sunday, and it is Sunday." BOL - Go Sabres!!! (homer talk)
Personally, I'd be happy to donate - imo, you should get rid of that way of thinking.
I don't like the play(s) myself - Sabres are BAAAAD. But - "Any given Sunday, and it is Sunday." BOL - Go Sabres!!! (homer talk)
Personally, I'd be happy to donate - imo, you should get rid of that way of thinking.
I don't like the play(s) myself - Sabres are BAAAAD. But - "Any given Sunday, and it is Sunday." BOL - Go Sabres!!! (homer talk)
Here
is the mathematical point that most sports investors do not take into account concerning the “happy to donate” portion of
my post. If you go into every ‘play’
expecting to win’ you will be disappointed at the very least 30% of the
time. Say you take a game, and you
consider the injuries, team fatigue, goalie, B2B game, home/away ice, team
momentum, day of the week, Corsi/Fenwick, SOG/SA, team Save%, ect, ect, ect….
Then
you see the line at +200 on this team for this game. Understand that the Line is telling you that
the Book believes that this team has a 1 in 3.5 (28%) chance of winning this
game. You do the calculations, the
research, and simulations, and you determine that this team actually has a 1 in
2.25 chance of winning this game, or a 40% chance of winning this game, or you
found the line was off slightly. Fact is
3 of every 5 bet you make that have this exact chance of winning will lose, BUT
2 of every 5 bets you make with these exact chances will win. So, your argument that I should “get rid of
that way of thinking” is incorrect. If
you are making bet/plays/picks with the thought that if a bet pays off, or
doesn’t determines whether you win, or not, is actually incorrect,
mathematically—and mathematically is the only true ‘constant’ in sports betting.
I’ll
elaborate; I make this bet that has a +200 line, fully knowing I will lose this
bet 60% of the time I make a play with these exact (or quite close) win/lose
chances, and will win it only 40% of the time.
So, I accept the fact that I, more often than not, will lose this ticket
(or “donate” lol), BUT it is still (win, or lose on this particular play) a
winning play, and a Value Play, because if I am doing my work/research/simulations
correctly, and have the percentage chances calculated correctly on every +200 line
bet (or any other Line play based on profitable math), then I win, because I I
will win $200 X 2 times or of 5 (= $400), and lose these plays 3 X $100 out of
5 = -$300, with a net profit of
$100. No expand this thinking to what
the outcome of 1,000 bets that I make on a +200 line whereas I have a 40%
chance of winning (=$20,000).. Same
concept as if there is a 50/50 shot of a coin flip that you start the flip with
tails up, they say that with the coin weight of the head pulling the head
downward, and the starting in that position gives you a 51% chance of it
landing tails up. But you pay me 55
dollars each heads, and I pay you $50 each tails, you have a 1% advantage on
the coin, but I have a 10% advantage on money…. I will lose more than I win,
but I will break you for every cent you have (no matter how much that is) if we
play long enough…… so…. Maybe I should stick with that way of “thinking”, what
do you think?
Personally, I'd be happy to donate - imo, you should get rid of that way of thinking.
I don't like the play(s) myself - Sabres are BAAAAD. But - "Any given Sunday, and it is Sunday." BOL - Go Sabres!!! (homer talk)
Here
is the mathematical point that most sports investors do not take into account concerning the “happy to donate” portion of
my post. If you go into every ‘play’
expecting to win’ you will be disappointed at the very least 30% of the
time. Say you take a game, and you
consider the injuries, team fatigue, goalie, B2B game, home/away ice, team
momentum, day of the week, Corsi/Fenwick, SOG/SA, team Save%, ect, ect, ect….
Then
you see the line at +200 on this team for this game. Understand that the Line is telling you that
the Book believes that this team has a 1 in 3.5 (28%) chance of winning this
game. You do the calculations, the
research, and simulations, and you determine that this team actually has a 1 in
2.25 chance of winning this game, or a 40% chance of winning this game, or you
found the line was off slightly. Fact is
3 of every 5 bet you make that have this exact chance of winning will lose, BUT
2 of every 5 bets you make with these exact chances will win. So, your argument that I should “get rid of
that way of thinking” is incorrect. If
you are making bet/plays/picks with the thought that if a bet pays off, or
doesn’t determines whether you win, or not, is actually incorrect,
mathematically—and mathematically is the only true ‘constant’ in sports betting.
I’ll
elaborate; I make this bet that has a +200 line, fully knowing I will lose this
bet 60% of the time I make a play with these exact (or quite close) win/lose
chances, and will win it only 40% of the time.
So, I accept the fact that I, more often than not, will lose this ticket
(or “donate” lol), BUT it is still (win, or lose on this particular play) a
winning play, and a Value Play, because if I am doing my work/research/simulations
correctly, and have the percentage chances calculated correctly on every +200 line
bet (or any other Line play based on profitable math), then I win, because I I
will win $200 X 2 times or of 5 (= $400), and lose these plays 3 X $100 out of
5 = -$300, with a net profit of
$100. No expand this thinking to what
the outcome of 1,000 bets that I make on a +200 line whereas I have a 40%
chance of winning (=$20,000).. Same
concept as if there is a 50/50 shot of a coin flip that you start the flip with
tails up, they say that with the coin weight of the head pulling the head
downward, and the starting in that position gives you a 51% chance of it
landing tails up. But you pay me 55
dollars each heads, and I pay you $50 each tails, you have a 1% advantage on
the coin, but I have a 10% advantage on money…. I will lose more than I win,
but I will break you for every cent you have (no matter how much that is) if we
play long enough…… so…. Maybe I should stick with that way of “thinking”, what
do you think?
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