I will go into some behind the curtain mathematical details
here, it might bore you, it might interest you…anyway… you mentioned Dallas /
Winnipeg as it was harder than normal to cap, but it isn’t, there are
consistencies 1) the line setters do a lot more work than most gamblers 2) Books have detailed expectations on
any/every game they offer 3) most ‘gamblers’
don’t, they just want to win, when they lose, they come back just wanting to
win. 4) Line setters/Books are a lot
smarter in this arena than most ‘gamblers’ and definitely less emotional, and
more focused. Anyway, look at this
Dallas/Winnipeg game:
Of course we know Dallas is a top scoring team in the NHL
& a bottom team in GAA. We know
Winnipeg has been scoring big (4 G/G in their last 5). So 5.5 goals seems like a no brainer…right? Well, we know the line opened at Over -125,
and closed at -140, let’s just use the -125 as an example:
The Book expects that this game will go Over about 67% (give
or take)…. Which means that, for instance, if you play the Over, the Book
expects to pay you out 3.35 times out of 6—they expect to make a minimum of 10%
on every game offered they bring in $331 on this bet, and pay out $300 ($100
bets as an example (sometimes more if they see an edge) So if they have 6 games
with this line, they expect to pay out 3.35 of every 6 bets they take in… BUT,
they expect to win (take money) 2.65 times (of ever 6 bets exactly like this
one @ -125). So, they expect this game goes Over 55.8% of the time… looking at
it like this, there was a flat line percentage expectations of this going Over
5.58 times out of 10. This is important
information, though you might be wondering why I am going into it here. So, there are no sure things, this example
simply states (Line talking to you) that this game goes Over
Here is the point, you have to do one of a few things if you
are going to find a mathematical ‘Edge’ that exposes an inadequate line. So, that means if Dallas and Winnipeg played
this exact game 100 times, it would go Over (or reverse, but we’ll use Over for
this) MORE than 75 times out of 100, giving you a 8%, or more edge, if not, it
is not worth the play.
The ONLY way you can find a solidified Edge, is to do one of
a few things…. 1) spend about 2 to 3 hours per game researching (everything
from shooting % season/last 10 games, opponent shooting % season/last 10 games,
Corsi, Fenwick, S/GM, SA/G, PP/PK, Goalie season/L10/hm/rd/and compared to career
average, home/road performance, Shots per goal For/Against, recent
injuries/team news, and a lot more), or 2) hire an agency that does this for
you, or 3) expect to lose your money b/c the Book is working harder than you
are and it is the natural order of things that they profit….. he who works the
hardest will experience the most success…
Soo many ‘gamblers’ jump on ESPN.com quickly look at a few
stats, trends, ect and put their money on a game, and are frustrated that they
lose more than they make… lol… that is EXACTLY what is supposed to happen.
Personally, I am grateful for this natural order of things, if not, I would not
be able to find anyone to take my bets..
Golden rules of Gambling (or investing, your choice):
1)
Always have a solid 8% + advantage in EVERY GAME
you bet, the bigger the edge, the more units you invest.
2)
NEVER get up when you win, nor down when you
lose. If you have an 8% + edge of the
lines you play, you will DEFINITELY have a healthy ROI, and your biggest
concern will be getting ‘cut off’ by the Book and have to scramble to find
places for your action.
3)
Work harder/be more knowledgeable than the ‘gamblers’,
or the line will kick your behind (money moves lines, and most of that money is
from the general public gamblers)… there is no other option
Hope this was enlightening, entertaining, or at least worth
reading, if not…lol….oh well, I am a sports investor, not a journalist
I will go into some behind the curtain mathematical details
here, it might bore you, it might interest you…anyway… you mentioned Dallas /
Winnipeg as it was harder than normal to cap, but it isn’t, there are
consistencies 1) the line setters do a lot more work than most gamblers 2) Books have detailed expectations on
any/every game they offer 3) most ‘gamblers’
don’t, they just want to win, when they lose, they come back just wanting to
win. 4) Line setters/Books are a lot
smarter in this arena than most ‘gamblers’ and definitely less emotional, and
more focused. Anyway, look at this
Dallas/Winnipeg game:
Of course we know Dallas is a top scoring team in the NHL
& a bottom team in GAA. We know
Winnipeg has been scoring big (4 G/G in their last 5). So 5.5 goals seems like a no brainer…right? Well, we know the line opened at Over -125,
and closed at -140, let’s just use the -125 as an example:
The Book expects that this game will go Over about 67% (give
or take)…. Which means that, for instance, if you play the Over, the Book
expects to pay you out 3.35 times out of 6—they expect to make a minimum of 10%
on every game offered they bring in $331 on this bet, and pay out $300 ($100
bets as an example (sometimes more if they see an edge) So if they have 6 games
with this line, they expect to pay out 3.35 of every 6 bets they take in… BUT,
they expect to win (take money) 2.65 times (of ever 6 bets exactly like this
one @ -125). So, they expect this game goes Over 55.8% of the time… looking at
it like this, there was a flat line percentage expectations of this going Over
5.58 times out of 10. This is important
information, though you might be wondering why I am going into it here. So, there are no sure things, this example
simply states (Line talking to you) that this game goes Over
Here is the point, you have to do one of a few things if you
are going to find a mathematical ‘Edge’ that exposes an inadequate line. So, that means if Dallas and Winnipeg played
this exact game 100 times, it would go Over (or reverse, but we’ll use Over for
this) MORE than 75 times out of 100, giving you a 8%, or more edge, if not, it
is not worth the play.
The ONLY way you can find a solidified Edge, is to do one of
a few things…. 1) spend about 2 to 3 hours per game researching (everything
from shooting % season/last 10 games, opponent shooting % season/last 10 games,
Corsi, Fenwick, S/GM, SA/G, PP/PK, Goalie season/L10/hm/rd/and compared to career
average, home/road performance, Shots per goal For/Against, recent
injuries/team news, and a lot more), or 2) hire an agency that does this for
you, or 3) expect to lose your money b/c the Book is working harder than you
are and it is the natural order of things that they profit….. he who works the
hardest will experience the most success…
Soo many ‘gamblers’ jump on ESPN.com quickly look at a few
stats, trends, ect and put their money on a game, and are frustrated that they
lose more than they make… lol… that is EXACTLY what is supposed to happen.
Personally, I am grateful for this natural order of things, if not, I would not
be able to find anyone to take my bets..
Golden rules of Gambling (or investing, your choice):
1)
Always have a solid 8% + advantage in EVERY GAME
you bet, the bigger the edge, the more units you invest.
2)
NEVER get up when you win, nor down when you
lose. If you have an 8% + edge of the
lines you play, you will DEFINITELY have a healthy ROI, and your biggest
concern will be getting ‘cut off’ by the Book and have to scramble to find
places for your action.
3)
Work harder/be more knowledgeable than the ‘gamblers’,
or the line will kick your behind (money moves lines, and most of that money is
from the general public gamblers)… there is no other option
Hope this was enlightening, entertaining, or at least worth
reading, if not…lol….oh well, I am a sports investor, not a journalist
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