2014 NFL record is 3-4
Don't feel like writing up something huge. Already did that for the Jets game.
The pick: GIANTS +4 over Cowboys (Strong)
You like trends? Here's one for you.
Blindly betting the underdog in Dallas games since 2010 has yielded a 43-24 ATS record. That's outrageous.
The Giants are not only the underdog, they are the underdog at home. I have watched the Giants forever and I couldn't tell you how far you'd have to go back to find the Giants as >3 pt underdog at home to the Cowboys.
This is their hated division rival. When I tell you the Giants get up to play the Cowboys more than any other team, I mean it.
The Cowboys could be 15-0 and the Giants could be 0-15 and the Giants will come to play against the Cowboys.
You want an ULTRA-Strong side? Tease the Giants up over 10 to 10.5. Wow. To me that is a dream line. Then do what you will with the other line (I'd take the Jets of course but that is just me). Only 2 games in the past 10 have been decided by more than >10 pts between these two. Ya just don't find teases like this.
But I'm not teasing this. I'll take the 4. It's a huge amount of insurance.
If you have any inclination that the Giants will lay down tomorrow or that "their season is over", I am here to tell you you are sadly mistaken.
Yes the Giants are ravaged with injuries. But there is one position where things have improved drastically. While Victor Cruz no longer is there, ODell Beckham has been a godsend. This kid is amazing and already, long time Giants fans are saying he could become one of the greatest receivers in Giants history (that is not an exaggeration). He'll see a lot of action tomorrow.
The run game for the Giants? Piss poor. But Jennings is back to full strength (he was on limited work last week) and I expect more from him this week.
I also expect more from Eli. He won't be throwing 5 interceptions. I'd be surprised if he threw even 1. Without the turnovers, it is very tough to play in Giants stadium in late November on a windy Sunday night.
The elements definitely favor the Giants here (just like they would have the Bills if that game was played in Buffalo).
Look at the Giants previous two games. The Seattle game, in the toughest venue in sports, was decided on turnovers.
The ball bounced the right way TWICE into Seattle's arms on fumbles on the goahead TD in the fourth and then a Manning tipped INT in the endzone that turned into a score made the final score look much worse than it was. Yes they ran for 350. That is awful, but even at that, the Giants fought to the finish and were in it for the overwhelming majority of that game.
San Fran last week? Even with FIVE INT's the Giants had first and goal at the 5 yard line to win it and had some of the worst playcalling I have seen in Giants history occur (three straight fade routes). Even at that, if the Giants were just outside the 10 yard line they kick the FG and then use time outs. That would have covered the +4, the same line as the one shown here.
So you have a game where they play neck and neck for 3.5 quarters in Seattle and have the next game come a dropped third down catch from winning vs. San Fran. Both losses but now the hated Cowboys come to MetLife Stadium for the Giants to unleash their frustrations on.
Lastly, why are the Cowboys worldbeaters now? Remember how worried bettors and Jerry Jones were about the Cowboys vs. the Jags two weeks ago? Yeah they covered handily but there was some real hand-wringing there. Now all of a sudden they beat the Jags and they are a #1 seed in the NFC? Please. Earn your stripes with a convincing win and cover over the Giants here and I'll listen. Many posters here did not want any part of the 7.5 given to the Jags, even with Romo. Now they'll just throw 4 at an opponent that always gets up for them?
This is no give up game, Coughlin is still playing for his job, the Giants always get up for the Cowboys, you NEVER get this many points at home with the Giants vs. the Cowboys.
Take the 4 and run.
The second game is JUST outside a pick so I'm only calling it a lean. It is JUST not strong enough for me to pull the trigger at the moment but that may change.
Lean: Browns +3 over Falcons
I really don't like the Falcons here.
Who did they beat this year?
The hated Saints who they always get up for in the first game.
The Saints are 4-6 just like the Falcons. That's an impressive win?
Then they beat the Panthers last week who are in complete disarray and really are one of the worst teams in football at the moment with a QB who isn't healthy mentally or physically.
Then they beat the a true worst team in football in the Bucs twice?
These are good wins? They are 4-6 in the worst division in the NFL people! This is not a good team.
It's not a team that should be laying points to the Browns who play in a division light years ahead of this one.
All of a sudden, the Browns are in last place after last week's loss.
Now the Falcons are 'more motivated' at 4-6 to win their division, a division in which they were 2-6 in two weeks ago as one of the worst teams going, more motivated than the Browns who will need to scratch and claw with everything they have to get back to the top of theirs?
No way.
Oh and here's a footnote. One of the 4 wins for the Falcons I posted, in favor of the Bucs. I lost that post with the Bucs +3.
If you want to read about how the refs literally gift wrapped that game to the Falcons, here is a link you might be interested in.
That 10 point win was no sound 10 point win. First it should have been a 3 pt push with the Bucs getting intercepted on the 4 yard line to end it, and couple that with the evidence in this article and you have a VERY shaky Falcons team laying points with 3 wins and 1 very questionable one. That's a bad team and that bad team is laying points. No way...
And who's to say if the Falcons lose, their playoff hopes are dead. They aren't! They could still be in first at the end of the week.
The Browns will definitely fall deeper into the dungeon of their division if they lose though.
I'll take the better team, with a FG, in a venue that Matty Ice no longer owns, against a team that literally has beaten but one quality opponent (and that opponent is even questionable).
Fade it please. I always love to be on Vegas's side.