Hello everyone, I'm starting this thread as a tribute/continuation in honor of the legendary thread started by SportsMavin last year. The thread was a great exercise and practice of the "right way to handicap NBA games" In the process: Longtime to brand-new gamblers learned and sharpened their craft immensely. There was many familiar posters who all got to know eachother and become "e-friends" if you will. BUT...
For some reason, Covers decided to move the whole thread to "website promotions" Without even offering an explanation to all of the handicapping writers who spent hours of their time contributing to the collection of work offered in that thread... So, I'm making this thread in hopes that we can "start off where we left off"
Hello everyone, I'm starting this thread as a tribute/continuation in honor of the legendary thread started by SportsMavin last year. The thread was a great exercise and practice of the "right way to handicap NBA games" In the process: Longtime to brand-new gamblers learned and sharpened their craft immensely. There was many familiar posters who all got to know eachother and become "e-friends" if you will. BUT...
For some reason, Covers decided to move the whole thread to "website promotions" Without even offering an explanation to all of the handicapping writers who spent hours of their time contributing to the collection of work offered in that thread... So, I'm making this thread in hopes that we can "start off where we left off"
The rule in the old thread was that you HAD to offer an explanation or insight as to why your rolling with any given pick...
For me, This is just a hunch... A little wager to kick of the season and make the game entertaining. But I think the Bulls will be up to the challenge. And D-Rose is bound to have a great game. I think this is anyones game. Bulls have a solid chance at winning outright, so I'll gladly take the 5 points.
The rule in the old thread was that you HAD to offer an explanation or insight as to why your rolling with any given pick...
For me, This is just a hunch... A little wager to kick of the season and make the game entertaining. But I think the Bulls will be up to the challenge. And D-Rose is bound to have a great game. I think this is anyones game. Bulls have a solid chance at winning outright, so I'll gladly take the 5 points.
In honor of Mavins old thread, I'm going to post the tutorials that Mavin contributed again. The tutorials where great and I go back and read em sometimes to sharpen up on my game. Give me a sec and I'll copy and paste em here
In honor of Mavins old thread, I'm going to post the tutorials that Mavin contributed again. The tutorials where great and I go back and read em sometimes to sharpen up on my game. Give me a sec and I'll copy and paste em here
"Although
I've been following the Covers.com for years - I was always as an
observer, trying to get the info and use it for my own benefit. There is
almost a year now that I didn't have to deposit any funds into my
betting accounts and managed even to keep withdrawing my winnings month
after month for some time. And those were no accidental string of events
that led to it, but the result of thorough study of the markets, trends
and the right usage of all the vast info displayed daily here.
I
want to share that knowledge with you for free and no hidden agendas
whatsoever. And yes, please remember that the Money Management is the
key to create the Steady Monthly Income month in and month out.
"Although
I've been following the Covers.com for years - I was always as an
observer, trying to get the info and use it for my own benefit. There is
almost a year now that I didn't have to deposit any funds into my
betting accounts and managed even to keep withdrawing my winnings month
after month for some time. And those were no accidental string of events
that led to it, but the result of thorough study of the markets, trends
and the right usage of all the vast info displayed daily here.
I
want to share that knowledge with you for free and no hidden agendas
whatsoever. And yes, please remember that the Money Management is the
key to create the Steady Monthly Income month in and month out.
The
next thing is deciding what are the criteria for betting the game. Are
you a spot play bettor? Or are you betting by the strength of the QB or a
pitcher? Or a dominant player/s you believe will perform well based on
stats (basketball)? Or are you a totals bettor? Are you using all the
stats available or are you looking at the line movements and betting
accordingly? With the public or against?Can you identify reverse line
movements or are you using the strategy of - most games based on line
movement will win? Are you following injury reports? And how are using
the absence of a start player in a first game without him? Against the
team or for the team?
The
next thing is deciding what are the criteria for betting the game. Are
you a spot play bettor? Or are you betting by the strength of the QB or a
pitcher? Or a dominant player/s you believe will perform well based on
stats (basketball)? Or are you a totals bettor? Are you using all the
stats available or are you looking at the line movements and betting
accordingly? With the public or against?Can you identify reverse line
movements or are you using the strategy of - most games based on line
movement will win? Are you following injury reports? And how are using
the absence of a start player in a first game without him? Against the
team or for the team?
Handicapping
sports by yourself can be very time consuming. One take is not enough
for true analysis. You have to get the lines as early as possible and
check on them throughout the day in order not only to see when the
changes occur but also finding out the reasons for it. For an example -
if some player has been scratched or not, if some new circumstances
forcing the move. And if not - then there must be some money involved,
because the lines and the odds do not change by themselves. If they do
by an initiation of the books - that happens as a Reverse Line Movement
when the books are inviting you to bet on a certain outcome and you
should be able to identify that. It is important to determine if RLM
happens throughout the day or few hours before the game. So, as I said
in the beginning - if you're intending to dedicate to handicapping only
few moments - you better reconsider handicapping by yourself. Because
you might get lucky occasionally - but that won't last for long.
Handicapping
sports by yourself can be very time consuming. One take is not enough
for true analysis. You have to get the lines as early as possible and
check on them throughout the day in order not only to see when the
changes occur but also finding out the reasons for it. For an example -
if some player has been scratched or not, if some new circumstances
forcing the move. And if not - then there must be some money involved,
because the lines and the odds do not change by themselves. If they do
by an initiation of the books - that happens as a Reverse Line Movement
when the books are inviting you to bet on a certain outcome and you
should be able to identify that. It is important to determine if RLM
happens throughout the day or few hours before the game. So, as I said
in the beginning - if you're intending to dedicate to handicapping only
few moments - you better reconsider handicapping by yourself. Because
you might get lucky occasionally - but that won't last for long.
I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going
against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a
flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it
- I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that
possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to
roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line
opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over
the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and
rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to
say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is
as sweet as the one you won!
I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going
against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a
flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it
- I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that
possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to
roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line
opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over
the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and
rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to
say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is
as sweet as the one you won!
2. Should I follow/tail the leaders of the Contests, and if yes - which?
Well,
that's a very tricky subject. I'll start with Streak Survivor contest.
Some years ago already, I organized myself an excel file entering the
names of the leaders from the first page (50) of the streak survivor
contest. After seeing that I need to narrow the list down - I started
selecting them by a following criteria: less than 15 losses on a page of
50 plays. I chose the first 5 and eliminated opposing picks. That
worked for few days until it came clear to me that most leaders bet on
the same game which becomes very popular and I can't really risk take
the same bet 4 or 5 times because the losses occur in 50% rate more or
less. Soon I realized that there is a reason very little of them reach
21 or more consecutive wins. Then I started charting monthly leaders of
streak survivor in order to benefit from those who even after they lose a
game - are back to the winning ways. That also worked for few days
until again I realized that the leaders mostly take the same bet and
fall together. Again, with consistency and some luck - for a short
period of time some gains can be made, but that is not exactly the
steady source of income as they cool off fast and no one stays hot when
the month ends. And then you have to start from 0 again.
The
second source I tried was approaching the League Contests. Well, there
the guys bet 10-15 games a night and that's not realistic for me as one
bad day can erase few days of hard work and at all - I'm not built to
bet so many games at the same time. The only person I had success with
was moman years back in NBA contest. He never repeated that success in a
years to come.
Then
I went to office pools and all kinds of different contests initiated by
Covers as Hawaiian contest with 3 games. Here too, there were some
successes, but not really for a long time or time enough to build a
methodology based on it.
2. Should I follow/tail the leaders of the Contests, and if yes - which?
Well,
that's a very tricky subject. I'll start with Streak Survivor contest.
Some years ago already, I organized myself an excel file entering the
names of the leaders from the first page (50) of the streak survivor
contest. After seeing that I need to narrow the list down - I started
selecting them by a following criteria: less than 15 losses on a page of
50 plays. I chose the first 5 and eliminated opposing picks. That
worked for few days until it came clear to me that most leaders bet on
the same game which becomes very popular and I can't really risk take
the same bet 4 or 5 times because the losses occur in 50% rate more or
less. Soon I realized that there is a reason very little of them reach
21 or more consecutive wins. Then I started charting monthly leaders of
streak survivor in order to benefit from those who even after they lose a
game - are back to the winning ways. That also worked for few days
until again I realized that the leaders mostly take the same bet and
fall together. Again, with consistency and some luck - for a short
period of time some gains can be made, but that is not exactly the
steady source of income as they cool off fast and no one stays hot when
the month ends. And then you have to start from 0 again.
The
second source I tried was approaching the League Contests. Well, there
the guys bet 10-15 games a night and that's not realistic for me as one
bad day can erase few days of hard work and at all - I'm not built to
bet so many games at the same time. The only person I had success with
was moman years back in NBA contest. He never repeated that success in a
years to come.
Then
I went to office pools and all kinds of different contests initiated by
Covers as Hawaiian contest with 3 games. Here too, there were some
successes, but not really for a long time or time enough to build a
methodology based on it.
3. Should I find some great handicapper from various forums and stick with his picks no matter what?
Ok,
I've searched for such "supercapper" and at times found one. Or at
least I thought I did. The problem starts to occur when either the
"supercapper" get cold, becomes a tout, or stops showing up on a
permanent bases.
Let's
define the "supercapper". That's not a tipster who occasionally shows
up with some hot tip. I have nothing against, but you can't base your
strategy of betting on occasional tipsters as good as they can be. So,
the "supercapper" has offer his picks on a daily basis. Not too many
plays (5 at the most) and have a certain set values as the sports he's
good at, time of the day he shows up (otherwise you'll have to spend the
most of the day waiting for his plays - because if you don't - the
line or the odds can be very different from the ones he capped and
you'll have to take unnecessary risks as the result) and most important
one - no chasing after losing plays.
At
times I was sure I was at the right time with the right "supercapper",
but that didn't last long. You simply have to identify the moment you
stop tailing the guy and switching to another one who becomes hot and
will take time until he'll get cold. Well, too many variables to throw
money on. Although, there were few that stayed hot long enough of their
disciplined play - they either went tout, or were banned because of most
probably the monkey business, or simply disappeared making money for
themselves without sharing it anymore. I even followed some to their own
sites until eventually there too they became touts or got cold. In
other words - tailing others on a permanent basis is not viable and
doesn't hold the water for long enough. So, you're back to square one
with a bit more knowledge about sports handicapping and more convinced
that you have to take many variables into account when talking about
methodology.
3. Should I find some great handicapper from various forums and stick with his picks no matter what?
Ok,
I've searched for such "supercapper" and at times found one. Or at
least I thought I did. The problem starts to occur when either the
"supercapper" get cold, becomes a tout, or stops showing up on a
permanent bases.
Let's
define the "supercapper". That's not a tipster who occasionally shows
up with some hot tip. I have nothing against, but you can't base your
strategy of betting on occasional tipsters as good as they can be. So,
the "supercapper" has offer his picks on a daily basis. Not too many
plays (5 at the most) and have a certain set values as the sports he's
good at, time of the day he shows up (otherwise you'll have to spend the
most of the day waiting for his plays - because if you don't - the
line or the odds can be very different from the ones he capped and
you'll have to take unnecessary risks as the result) and most important
one - no chasing after losing plays.
At
times I was sure I was at the right time with the right "supercapper",
but that didn't last long. You simply have to identify the moment you
stop tailing the guy and switching to another one who becomes hot and
will take time until he'll get cold. Well, too many variables to throw
money on. Although, there were few that stayed hot long enough of their
disciplined play - they either went tout, or were banned because of most
probably the monkey business, or simply disappeared making money for
themselves without sharing it anymore. I even followed some to their own
sites until eventually there too they became touts or got cold. In
other words - tailing others on a permanent basis is not viable and
doesn't hold the water for long enough. So, you're back to square one
with a bit more knowledge about sports handicapping and more convinced
that you have to take many variables into account when talking about
methodology.
4.Should I integrate all the written above methods and play the games that are in agreement with all the conditions above?
If you read all that I've written so far, the answer is NO. You can't integrate greatly unknown values.
5.
Should I put aside everything I do and focus on sports betting as a
profession that will support me and my family in a steady fashion?
Bit
risky if you have no prior experience. Easy does it. Start small, learn
the trade and then decide if you're gifted enough to do it.
6. Should I buy picks? And if yes - how I know who is for real and who is just a prank?
Those
that are really good - making enough money themselves not to need
selling their picks and others stay hot for a limited period of times.
More than that - I came across sites that have few handicappers who post
opposite picks on the same game. What the hell - one of them is always
right. I know few that are having private sites and it's not easy to get
into there. Besides, you need lots of money to start with in order to
be able to afford occasional juice when the losses occur.
So, what to do then? And how? And with what bankroll?
4.Should I integrate all the written above methods and play the games that are in agreement with all the conditions above?
If you read all that I've written so far, the answer is NO. You can't integrate greatly unknown values.
5.
Should I put aside everything I do and focus on sports betting as a
profession that will support me and my family in a steady fashion?
Bit
risky if you have no prior experience. Easy does it. Start small, learn
the trade and then decide if you're gifted enough to do it.
6. Should I buy picks? And if yes - how I know who is for real and who is just a prank?
Those
that are really good - making enough money themselves not to need
selling their picks and others stay hot for a limited period of times.
More than that - I came across sites that have few handicappers who post
opposite picks on the same game. What the hell - one of them is always
right. I know few that are having private sites and it's not easy to get
into there. Besides, you need lots of money to start with in order to
be able to afford occasional juice when the losses occur.
So, what to do then? And how? And with what bankroll?
I
started with 2000$ bankroll and knew I had to be very careful with that
bankroll as I had more or less 20 plays in me playing straight bets of
100% per unit and even less playing the odds to get 100$ as a winning
unit. I decided in the beginning to do it playing straight bets.
So, I will do the same here again.
I
have week days graded by their characteristics and the action. Mondays
are NBA plays with underdog's having the clear edge. MNF is a public
fade and usually under day. Not always. But most will do.
Tuesdays
are a regular handicapping day in NBA as is Wednesday and Thursday is a
totally different story. NBA has usually 3 games offered on that day
and fading the public is a root from which I develop my handicapping. It
is usually Under day as well as Underdog day mostly. Fridays are back
to normal handicapping day and Saturday has usually College Football
(not anymore) and NBA action that Unders and Underdogs have to be looked
at as a root.
Sunday is the best days as NFL kicks in and some NBA plays as well always made me a profit.
So,
the first thing I do is eliminating the games I don't touch. I do that
after checking the matchups on Covers, read the previews, interviews,
look at the notes I took in past games of the teams and checking ATS
columns. If Totals play attracts my attention - I check on the officials
to see if there are any trends holding (MLB and NBA). I mark the
opening lines and never look back at the games I did not like in the
beginning (call it a gut feeling if you want). For an example: I didn't
like any plays today in NBA. Any! Not the totals nor the spreads. I did
lean on Under in College Football, but after the line dropped 3 points -
I decided to stay away. Days that I don't like any plays happen once in
a while and that's no big deal for me as I try not to be impulsive
gambler but the one who is playing the games he believes in them without
a doubt. Smallest of the doubts - I'm out. If you want to make the
money on a permanent bases in sports handicapping - that is the only
way. Again - the bet you didn't lose is as good as the bet you won.
I
started with 2000$ bankroll and knew I had to be very careful with that
bankroll as I had more or less 20 plays in me playing straight bets of
100% per unit and even less playing the odds to get 100$ as a winning
unit. I decided in the beginning to do it playing straight bets.
So, I will do the same here again.
I
have week days graded by their characteristics and the action. Mondays
are NBA plays with underdog's having the clear edge. MNF is a public
fade and usually under day. Not always. But most will do.
Tuesdays
are a regular handicapping day in NBA as is Wednesday and Thursday is a
totally different story. NBA has usually 3 games offered on that day
and fading the public is a root from which I develop my handicapping. It
is usually Under day as well as Underdog day mostly. Fridays are back
to normal handicapping day and Saturday has usually College Football
(not anymore) and NBA action that Unders and Underdogs have to be looked
at as a root.
Sunday is the best days as NFL kicks in and some NBA plays as well always made me a profit.
So,
the first thing I do is eliminating the games I don't touch. I do that
after checking the matchups on Covers, read the previews, interviews,
look at the notes I took in past games of the teams and checking ATS
columns. If Totals play attracts my attention - I check on the officials
to see if there are any trends holding (MLB and NBA). I mark the
opening lines and never look back at the games I did not like in the
beginning (call it a gut feeling if you want). For an example: I didn't
like any plays today in NBA. Any! Not the totals nor the spreads. I did
lean on Under in College Football, but after the line dropped 3 points -
I decided to stay away. Days that I don't like any plays happen once in
a while and that's no big deal for me as I try not to be impulsive
gambler but the one who is playing the games he believes in them without
a doubt. Smallest of the doubts - I'm out. If you want to make the
money on a permanent bases in sports handicapping - that is the only
way. Again - the bet you didn't lose is as good as the bet you won.
Showtime in LA, but it will be the Clippers that will be putting on a show. Unfortunately, the line got away from me and it is at -10 now, but I was able to secure LAC TT. Lakers line up is full of horrible defenders. They lost Artest and Kobe is out, who is going to guard Chris Paul? I think Clippers will be able to put up a lot of points tonights, not so sure about the Lakers, so just sticking with LAC TT.
This one is pretty risky, but CHI has something to prove. Should be a great game and it will be close. Will take CHI +5.5 here.
Showtime in LA, but it will be the Clippers that will be putting on a show. Unfortunately, the line got away from me and it is at -10 now, but I was able to secure LAC TT. Lakers line up is full of horrible defenders. They lost Artest and Kobe is out, who is going to guard Chris Paul? I think Clippers will be able to put up a lot of points tonights, not so sure about the Lakers, so just sticking with LAC TT.
This one is pretty risky, but CHI has something to prove. Should be a great game and it will be close. Will take CHI +5.5 here.
I had a great start of the season going 0-2. I might just seat and watch tonight. There were a lot of players changing teams this off season. It is really hard to evaluate at this point.
I had a great start of the season going 0-2. I might just seat and watch tonight. There were a lot of players changing teams this off season. It is really hard to evaluate at this point.
Portland -5 and a half.....thought this was my strongest pick until i saw that everybody on this forum is taking them and I'm wondering why the line went down instead of up...Still looks like a gift to me with the improving blazers team and a stagnet suns team that has been decimated in the last 3 years...
miami and philly under 98 and a half (at halftime)...Miamis D should shut down Philly and despite their own output it should deff keep this total below..
Sac-3.....I love what i saw them work on in the defensive side of the ball, they could always score the ball but their lack of defense absolutely killed them last year. Plus they got rid of what they didn't need and have a great young trio of talent that is only going to get better this year.
Toronto-8....A little worried again because maybe their look in the preseason was a little too telling in how they might succeed this year but you can't really mess with results and until they show me otherwise I'm taking them against a very weak and dismantled boston team.
Houston-12.....This team is going to be dangerous this season...add that with the defense of Howard and teams in the west better look out this year...Also they play much better at home and point differential is way higher then most...
Portland -5 and a half.....thought this was my strongest pick until i saw that everybody on this forum is taking them and I'm wondering why the line went down instead of up...Still looks like a gift to me with the improving blazers team and a stagnet suns team that has been decimated in the last 3 years...
miami and philly under 98 and a half (at halftime)...Miamis D should shut down Philly and despite their own output it should deff keep this total below..
Sac-3.....I love what i saw them work on in the defensive side of the ball, they could always score the ball but their lack of defense absolutely killed them last year. Plus they got rid of what they didn't need and have a great young trio of talent that is only going to get better this year.
Toronto-8....A little worried again because maybe their look in the preseason was a little too telling in how they might succeed this year but you can't really mess with results and until they show me otherwise I'm taking them against a very weak and dismantled boston team.
Houston-12.....This team is going to be dangerous this season...add that with the defense of Howard and teams in the west better look out this year...Also they play much better at home and point differential is way higher then most...
Love, love,love this line right here. I expect a good game from Wall in the boys and was actually believing that Washington would be slightly favored here. I just think Washington is the better team. It's early, So it's a little hard to get too in depth. But This is my favorite play of the day.
Love, love,love this line right here. I expect a good game from Wall in the boys and was actually believing that Washington would be slightly favored here. I just think Washington is the better team. It's early, So it's a little hard to get too in depth. But This is my favorite play of the day.
Portland -5 and a half.....thought this was my strongest pick until i saw that everybody on this forum is taking them and I'm wondering why the line went down instead of up...Still looks like a gift to me with the improving blazers team and a stagnet suns team that has been decimated in the last 3 years...
miami and philly under 98 and a half (at halftime)...Miamis D should shut down Philly and despite their own output it should deff keep this total below..
Sac-3.....I love what i saw them work on in the defensive side of the ball, they could always score the ball but their lack of defense absolutely killed them last year. Plus they got rid of what they didn't need and have a great young trio of talent that is only going to get better this year.
Toronto-8....A little worried again because maybe their look in the preseason was a little too telling in how they might succeed this year but you can't really mess with results and until they show me otherwise I'm taking them against a very weak and dismantled boston team.
Houston-12.....This team is going to be dangerous this season...add that with the defense of Howard and teams in the west better look out this year...Also they play much better at home and point differential is way higher then most...
GOOD LUCK AS ALWAYS....
Nice picks Melo. Hope you slay the bookies again like last year
Portland -5 and a half.....thought this was my strongest pick until i saw that everybody on this forum is taking them and I'm wondering why the line went down instead of up...Still looks like a gift to me with the improving blazers team and a stagnet suns team that has been decimated in the last 3 years...
miami and philly under 98 and a half (at halftime)...Miamis D should shut down Philly and despite their own output it should deff keep this total below..
Sac-3.....I love what i saw them work on in the defensive side of the ball, they could always score the ball but their lack of defense absolutely killed them last year. Plus they got rid of what they didn't need and have a great young trio of talent that is only going to get better this year.
Toronto-8....A little worried again because maybe their look in the preseason was a little too telling in how they might succeed this year but you can't really mess with results and until they show me otherwise I'm taking them against a very weak and dismantled boston team.
Houston-12.....This team is going to be dangerous this season...add that with the defense of Howard and teams in the west better look out this year...Also they play much better at home and point differential is way higher then most...
GOOD LUCK AS ALWAYS....
Nice picks Melo. Hope you slay the bookies again like last year
I'm seeing a lot of love for Toronto on these boards... It's easy to understand why. Bostons lost many of their key players and Toronto finished off their season well last year and made a few nice tweaks. But laying 8 on Toronto still makes me a little nervous. I think they probably cover, and I'll be rooting for em. But I kinda wanna see how this new look Boston team looks before wagering against em.
I'm seeing a lot of love for Toronto on these boards... It's easy to understand why. Bostons lost many of their key players and Toronto finished off their season well last year and made a few nice tweaks. But laying 8 on Toronto still makes me a little nervous. I think they probably cover, and I'll be rooting for em. But I kinda wanna see how this new look Boston team looks before wagering against em.
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