Great opportunity for parlay material here. If this was a 3 rounder I'd be comfortable laying -350. In a 5 rounder I think a more accurate line is -550ish. In a 3 rounder it's possible Munoz could get a garbage decision like Davis, but over 5 have to like Machida to win 3-5 rounds or stop a tired Munoz.
Great opportunity for parlay material here. If this was a 3 rounder I'd be comfortable laying -350. In a 5 rounder I think a more accurate line is -550ish. In a 3 rounder it's possible Munoz could get a garbage decision like Davis, but over 5 have to like Machida to win 3-5 rounds or stop a tired Munoz.
Mark Munoz is an upper middle of the pack 185'er who looked great in his last fight against Boetsch. After all the Machida hype (and the urine drinking) subsided, he's 3-4 since 2010, and hasn't been all that impressive. He could easily have lost the decision to Hendo as well (though perhaps the Rampage fight could have gone his way). The point is: he was no world beater at 205. He's making his first cut to 185, against a fairly rugged guy. It won't be an easy fight for Lyoto.
Mark Munoz is an upper middle of the pack 185'er who looked great in his last fight against Boetsch. After all the Machida hype (and the urine drinking) subsided, he's 3-4 since 2010, and hasn't been all that impressive. He could easily have lost the decision to Hendo as well (though perhaps the Rampage fight could have gone his way). The point is: he was no world beater at 205. He's making his first cut to 185, against a fairly rugged guy. It won't be an easy fight for Lyoto.
Machida often weighed in under 205. I'm not sure he ever cut weight. Machida tends to get himself in fights that are closer than they should be. He backs up but lands the more significant strikes But it's no question who the more skillful fighter is
Machida often weighed in under 205. I'm not sure he ever cut weight. Machida tends to get himself in fights that are closer than they should be. He backs up but lands the more significant strikes But it's no question who the more skillful fighter is
I think the only reason that the line is only -350 is because of the weight cut combined with the fact that he stepped in to take this fight. If he had been planning for this fight the whole time I think the line would be a bit higher because he would be more intune with the actual cut. Altho he's came in well under the 206 limit on more than one occasion, many time with a weight cut its the final 10 lbs that are the biggest hurdle ( I say 10 because the final 1-5 you can drain a sig amt of water weight but all in all same idea)
However rush I will agree with you that if Machida's cut goes well, that -350 may be a little low. Yes Munoz looked great last fight and is an upper end MW. However if wrestlers at 205 had a hard time taking Machida down I would like to think that Munoz is as well. I mean Davis is a bigger/better wrestler than Munoz and Davis wasn't able to get a significant takedown all fight... the funny thing about all this, is that other than his BJ fight, this might be the first time Machida is actually going to come in the bigger man.
I think the only reason that the line is only -350 is because of the weight cut combined with the fact that he stepped in to take this fight. If he had been planning for this fight the whole time I think the line would be a bit higher because he would be more intune with the actual cut. Altho he's came in well under the 206 limit on more than one occasion, many time with a weight cut its the final 10 lbs that are the biggest hurdle ( I say 10 because the final 1-5 you can drain a sig amt of water weight but all in all same idea)
However rush I will agree with you that if Machida's cut goes well, that -350 may be a little low. Yes Munoz looked great last fight and is an upper end MW. However if wrestlers at 205 had a hard time taking Machida down I would like to think that Munoz is as well. I mean Davis is a bigger/better wrestler than Munoz and Davis wasn't able to get a significant takedown all fight... the funny thing about all this, is that other than his BJ fight, this might be the first time Machida is actually going to come in the bigger man.
I'm not concerned about the weight cut one bit. He has a good team around him, and the cut won't be too big.
I basically see Munoz as a smaller, poor man's Bader, and I was all too happy to lay Machida -300 against Bader a weight class above this contest in a 15 minute fight. I also laid -300 on him against Davis, unfortunately. Basically I will always lay -300 to -350 on Machida against non top 5 talent.
I'm not concerned about the weight cut one bit. He has a good team around him, and the cut won't be too big.
I basically see Munoz as a smaller, poor man's Bader, and I was all too happy to lay Machida -300 against Bader a weight class above this contest in a 15 minute fight. I also laid -300 on him against Davis, unfortunately. Basically I will always lay -300 to -350 on Machida against non top 5 talent.
Safe matchup for Lyoto here. Munoz is a poor striker and won't take Machida down. Over 5 Rds hard to envision how he wins. To beat machida you need to be active with the hands on the feet and out point him because he can be economical with his output. Munoz is never going to beat machida on the feet. And his chances of taking him down are slim.
Safe matchup for Lyoto here. Munoz is a poor striker and won't take Machida down. Over 5 Rds hard to envision how he wins. To beat machida you need to be active with the hands on the feet and out point him because he can be economical with his output. Munoz is never going to beat machida on the feet. And his chances of taking him down are slim.
Gotta laugh at guys acting like they're going out on a limb picking Machida. At that price, he needs to win almost 80% of the time to b/e. For your sake I hope he does, but it's definitely not an insightful, creative, or brilliant pick.
Gotta laugh at guys acting like they're going out on a limb picking Machida. At that price, he needs to win almost 80% of the time to b/e. For your sake I hope he does, but it's definitely not an insightful, creative, or brilliant pick.
Gotta laugh at guys acting like they're going out on a limb picking Machida. At that price, he needs to win almost 80% of the time to b/e. For your sake I hope he does, but it's definitely not an insightful, creative, or brilliant pick.
Gotta laugh at the morons that think Munoz is a top 185 pounder.
He beat Boetsch
Everyone that just watched the fight knows Dollaway did too. Maybe Dollaway is top 10
Gotta laugh at guys acting like they're going out on a limb picking Machida. At that price, he needs to win almost 80% of the time to b/e. For your sake I hope he does, but it's definitely not an insightful, creative, or brilliant pick.
Gotta laugh at the morons that think Munoz is a top 185 pounder.
He beat Boetsch
Everyone that just watched the fight knows Dollaway did too. Maybe Dollaway is top 10
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