people who are discrediting ferrer clearly have hardly watched him play, plus nadal coming off a very psyically demanding match.
i expect this to go at least 4 sets, but am expecting 4 or 5 setter
people who are discrediting ferrer clearly have hardly watched him play, plus nadal coming off a very psyically demanding match.
i expect this to go at least 4 sets, but am expecting 4 or 5 setter
Fact: Their 2 meetings this year on European clay courts have seen Ferrer win a set.
Fact: Prior to this year, Nadal had won 18 straight sets on European clay courts between the 2 players.
What changed between those 2 facts? Nadal had a shitload of time off from playing top tennis. Nadal may own Ferrer, but Nadal is not in the form of his life. Normal Nadal beats the Joker in 4 sets (at worst) in their SF. The fact he was down a break in the 5th set says less about the Joker being world #1, and more about Nadal not being fully at his normal FO standards (something visible at various stages throughout this tourney), which is obviously entirely understandable given the amount of top class tennis he's missed....
nadal went 5 sets for the second time yesterday in 9 years!!!
What a suprise. And for the first time in many years he's coming off having missed a lot of top tennis. Coincidence? Yeeeeah. You're reading too much of the past, and not enough of the present, into matters. Normal Nadal destroys Ferrer here, but you're not getting normal Nadal. If he does win in 3 sets, you'll be talking about his having won a tiebreak (which is a lottery) or having just avoided one (a 7-5 scoreline). IMO Ferrer will get cleaned out in at least 1 set, but in at least 1 of the other 2 (if not both) he's going to go close to winning it himself. It's on a knife edge whether Nadal wins 3-0 or 3-1 (3-2 wouldn't be a shocker, but I don't rate Ferrer enough. To me this is about Nadal not fully being there, rather than ferrer forcing such a result of his own racquet alone).
In his first 5 FO finals, Nadal had 2 sets feature a 7 game winner. In his last 2 FO finals, he's had 4 sets feature a 7 game winner. 7 game winning sets are lottery sets. Not even Nadal in the FO final has perfect record for 7 game sets.
Finally, a less tangible point but soemthing that can't be overlooked. Nadal has no reason to psycholoigcally fear or be concerned about Ferrer, because of his already established clay dominance. But Ferrer is playing in his first Slam final, and he knows he might not get another chance, ever. This guy isn't going to give away any set, even down 0-2 he's going to bring the kitchen sink to try and win the 3rd. I'd want to know, if I was betting Nadal 3-0, that up 2-0 his opponent was likely going to be crushed & give up (it's how so many 2-0s turn into 3-0s, after all). But this is the wrong situation - an experienced player playing his first Slam final - for that scenario to happen.
Nadal could win 3-0, but this isn't the FO final I'd bet on it happening.
Fact: Their 2 meetings this year on European clay courts have seen Ferrer win a set.
Fact: Prior to this year, Nadal had won 18 straight sets on European clay courts between the 2 players.
What changed between those 2 facts? Nadal had a shitload of time off from playing top tennis. Nadal may own Ferrer, but Nadal is not in the form of his life. Normal Nadal beats the Joker in 4 sets (at worst) in their SF. The fact he was down a break in the 5th set says less about the Joker being world #1, and more about Nadal not being fully at his normal FO standards (something visible at various stages throughout this tourney), which is obviously entirely understandable given the amount of top class tennis he's missed....
nadal went 5 sets for the second time yesterday in 9 years!!!
What a suprise. And for the first time in many years he's coming off having missed a lot of top tennis. Coincidence? Yeeeeah. You're reading too much of the past, and not enough of the present, into matters. Normal Nadal destroys Ferrer here, but you're not getting normal Nadal. If he does win in 3 sets, you'll be talking about his having won a tiebreak (which is a lottery) or having just avoided one (a 7-5 scoreline). IMO Ferrer will get cleaned out in at least 1 set, but in at least 1 of the other 2 (if not both) he's going to go close to winning it himself. It's on a knife edge whether Nadal wins 3-0 or 3-1 (3-2 wouldn't be a shocker, but I don't rate Ferrer enough. To me this is about Nadal not fully being there, rather than ferrer forcing such a result of his own racquet alone).
In his first 5 FO finals, Nadal had 2 sets feature a 7 game winner. In his last 2 FO finals, he's had 4 sets feature a 7 game winner. 7 game winning sets are lottery sets. Not even Nadal in the FO final has perfect record for 7 game sets.
Finally, a less tangible point but soemthing that can't be overlooked. Nadal has no reason to psycholoigcally fear or be concerned about Ferrer, because of his already established clay dominance. But Ferrer is playing in his first Slam final, and he knows he might not get another chance, ever. This guy isn't going to give away any set, even down 0-2 he's going to bring the kitchen sink to try and win the 3rd. I'd want to know, if I was betting Nadal 3-0, that up 2-0 his opponent was likely going to be crushed & give up (it's how so many 2-0s turn into 3-0s, after all). But this is the wrong situation - an experienced player playing his first Slam final - for that scenario to happen.
Nadal could win 3-0, but this isn't the FO final I'd bet on it happening.
I agree with you--but line is -116? not -400? So not unlikely he can get a set.
I agree with you--but line is -116? not -400? So not unlikely he can get a set.
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