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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
4.11.2013, 3-1, +8.48 Units, +42.4% ROI
YTD – 17-27-5, -41.91 Units, -17.1% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – 4/12/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
Phillies RL F5 (-.5, +??) RL FG (-1.5, +140) (Lannan / Nolasco)
Lannan over Nolasco is not a hard choice to make, but the greatest difference in potential in this game comes from the offenses. Versus an average offensive rating of 32 pts / 4.5 runs per nine innings, the Phillies come in today at 40.4 / 5.4 while the Marlins show me only 25.5 / 3.4. Those are both major league lows for probable performance versus left handed pitching.
Mets F5 (-??) FG (-113) (Niese / Worley)
No comparison on the hill as both have been about what I expected to this date, Niese and Worley, one pretty darn good and the other pretty darn bad. The Mets have also rocked right handed starters for a 37.6 rating and 5 runs per nine innings, while the Twinkies have yet to see any lefty, much less a good one.
Diamondbacks F5 (+??) FG (+140) (Kershaw / Corbin)
I love Kershaw as much as the next guy but he is not going to win them all and the combination of Corbin plus the far better offense should be enough to carry the day. Respect for Kershaw created the line, but it does not reflect true probability. At +140 we need only a 41.7% chance of a win to make a play on the game, and I compute it a lot closer than that.
The SAD Diego Padres will have their day, but right now it does not look like it will be today. The Rockies are off to a much better start, as is
5 inning lines as soon as they open. I may not be home then and if not I will accept the opening lines at BetOnline or 5Dimes as the official numbers.
BOL