\/------Last 8 Days of NCAA Basketball Stats to be Added to Overall Stats------\/
Saturday February 2, 2013 through Saturday, February 9, 2013
6 pushes 72 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread 339 games 678 teams
6 Pushes Valp @ Cleve St, E. ich @ Toledo, Nevad @ N. Mex, Maryland @ VA Tech, Wash St @ S. Cal, TN St @ Austin P.
12 by -0.5 Geo Wash, St Mary's, Port St, Seton Hall, UNC Char, Creigh, SMiss, TN Tech, Manh, Kent, Seattle, AZ ST.
10 by -1 Rutgers, Wyoming, UC Irvine, Vandy, NC ST, AZ St, Elon, S. Dak, Miss St, Portland St.
19 by -1.5 Harvard, Air Force, VA Comm, Duque, Missouri, Richmond, Ark St, UC Davis, IUPUI, Iona, Stanford, Wright St, Northeastern, Memphis, N. Iowa, NC St, S. Dak St, Neb Oma, CS Sacram.
11 by -2 Loy MD, Houston, Depaul, N. IL, St. joe, E. IL, Loy Mary, Siena, Kansas St, SIU Edward, Montana
13 by -2.5 Old Dom, FL, Iowa St, Idaho, lA Tech, Iona, Oregon, Princeton, Mich, St. Joe, Col St, Ark St, Davidson
7 by -3 E. Car, Elon, S. Utah, C. FL, LSU, Pepper, Idaho St.
Buy 0.5 point 12 (1.77%) loses to pushes 6 (0.88%) pushes to wins 18 (2.65%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point
Buy 1 point 10 (1.47%) pushes 18 (2.65%) wins 28 (4.13%) total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 points 19 (2.80%) pushes 28 (4.13%) wins 47 (6.93%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 points 11 (1.62%) pushes 47 (6.93%) wins 58 (8.55%) total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 points 13 (1.92%) pushes 58 (8.55%)wins 71 (10.47%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 points 7 (1.03%) pushes 71 (10.47%) wins 78 (11.5%) total bets affected by buying 3 points
On
3 points, on average 11.5% of bets that normally would have been a
loss would be either a push or a win, but on the other 88.5% of the
bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than
"normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.
Paying 77% more for only 11.5% insurance!
If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!
\/------Last 8 Days of NCAA Basketball Stats to be Added to Overall Stats------\/
Saturday February 2, 2013 through Saturday, February 9, 2013
6 pushes 72 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread 339 games 678 teams
6 Pushes Valp @ Cleve St, E. ich @ Toledo, Nevad @ N. Mex, Maryland @ VA Tech, Wash St @ S. Cal, TN St @ Austin P.
12 by -0.5 Geo Wash, St Mary's, Port St, Seton Hall, UNC Char, Creigh, SMiss, TN Tech, Manh, Kent, Seattle, AZ ST.
10 by -1 Rutgers, Wyoming, UC Irvine, Vandy, NC ST, AZ St, Elon, S. Dak, Miss St, Portland St.
19 by -1.5 Harvard, Air Force, VA Comm, Duque, Missouri, Richmond, Ark St, UC Davis, IUPUI, Iona, Stanford, Wright St, Northeastern, Memphis, N. Iowa, NC St, S. Dak St, Neb Oma, CS Sacram.
11 by -2 Loy MD, Houston, Depaul, N. IL, St. joe, E. IL, Loy Mary, Siena, Kansas St, SIU Edward, Montana
13 by -2.5 Old Dom, FL, Iowa St, Idaho, lA Tech, Iona, Oregon, Princeton, Mich, St. Joe, Col St, Ark St, Davidson
7 by -3 E. Car, Elon, S. Utah, C. FL, LSU, Pepper, Idaho St.
Buy 0.5 point 12 (1.77%) loses to pushes 6 (0.88%) pushes to wins 18 (2.65%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point
Buy 1 point 10 (1.47%) pushes 18 (2.65%) wins 28 (4.13%) total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 points 19 (2.80%) pushes 28 (4.13%) wins 47 (6.93%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 points 11 (1.62%) pushes 47 (6.93%) wins 58 (8.55%) total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 points 13 (1.92%) pushes 58 (8.55%)wins 71 (10.47%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 points 7 (1.03%) pushes 71 (10.47%) wins 78 (11.5%) total bets affected by buying 3 points
On
3 points, on average 11.5% of bets that normally would have been a
loss would be either a push or a win, but on the other 88.5% of the
bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than
"normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.
Paying 77% more for only 11.5% insurance!
If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!
People have brought up that "they only pick the games
that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of
the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.
A
few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas
the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5
points as compared to any other amount. The bottom line is that the
amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the
amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.
A
few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have
low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher
original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on
games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3
points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near
being profitable.
A
few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable
to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that
number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was
ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.
Though the stats DID
show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6
or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED.
DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY.
People have brought up that "they only pick the games
that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of
the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.
A
few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas
the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5
points as compared to any other amount. The bottom line is that the
amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the
amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.
A
few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have
low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher
original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on
games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3
points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near
being profitable.
A
few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable
to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that
number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was
ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.
Though the stats DID
show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6
or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED.
DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY.
\/------------UPDATED STATS AFTER ADDING ABOVE GAMES------------\/
THE LAST 22 DAYS OF NCAA BASKETBALL GAMES:
Saturday, January 19, 2013 Through Saturday, February 9, 2013
817 Games 1634 Teams 11 Original Spreads Were Originally Pushes 187 Games Covered Between 0.5 to 3 Points of Original Spreads
ATS
Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post
the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out,
hence less sifting through games for my data.
Buy 0.5 Point (-120) 36 Loss to a Push (2.20%) 11 Pushes to a Win (0.67%) 2.88% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points
Buy 1 Point (-130) 37 Loss to a Push (2.26%) 47 Loss to a Win (2.88%) 5.14% of total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 Points (-140) 28 Pushes (1.71%) 84 Wins (5.14%) 6.85% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 Points (-155) 29 Pushes (1.77%) 112 Wins (6.85%) 8.63% of total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 Points (-175) 32 Pushes (1.96%) 141 Wins(8.63%) 10.59% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 Points (-195) 25 Pushes (1.53%) 173 Wins (10.59%) 12.12% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
Paying -195 on ALL bets where 3 points were bought and only getting a return of 12.12% of bets affected by it.
\/------------UPDATED STATS AFTER ADDING ABOVE GAMES------------\/
THE LAST 22 DAYS OF NCAA BASKETBALL GAMES:
Saturday, January 19, 2013 Through Saturday, February 9, 2013
817 Games 1634 Teams 11 Original Spreads Were Originally Pushes 187 Games Covered Between 0.5 to 3 Points of Original Spreads
ATS
Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post
the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out,
hence less sifting through games for my data.
Buy 0.5 Point (-120) 36 Loss to a Push (2.20%) 11 Pushes to a Win (0.67%) 2.88% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points
Buy 1 Point (-130) 37 Loss to a Push (2.26%) 47 Loss to a Win (2.88%) 5.14% of total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 Points (-140) 28 Pushes (1.71%) 84 Wins (5.14%) 6.85% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 Points (-155) 29 Pushes (1.77%) 112 Wins (6.85%) 8.63% of total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 Points (-175) 32 Pushes (1.96%) 141 Wins(8.63%) 10.59% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 Points (-195) 25 Pushes (1.53%) 173 Wins (10.59%) 12.12% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
Paying -195 on ALL bets where 3 points were bought and only getting a return of 12.12% of bets affected by it.
People don't take the time to look at their gambling habits IN-DEPTH and
don't realize where they are really wasting their money.
Do people really believe that sports books ALLOW BUYING OF POINTS because it is ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE GAMBLER and NOT THEM?!?!?
The
probabilities are all there and the prices for point buying also...now
it's just up to people to realize that the money that they "SAVE" from
buying points, IS NOT GREATER, than the juice they pay to buy those
points ON THE GAME WHERE THE POINTS DID NOT MATTER. Besides people not understanding what they are LOSING by buying points, people buy points FOR PEACE OF MIND.
It
DOES feel good to buy points. It makes you feel like you are NOT going
to lose, but really it should only make you feel 2.2% better on "The
Hook" and only 12.03% on 3 points.
PEACE OF MIND is what you are REALLY buying AND that peace of mind is EXPENSIVE! Nothing in life is free.
People don't take the time to look at their gambling habits IN-DEPTH and
don't realize where they are really wasting their money.
Do people really believe that sports books ALLOW BUYING OF POINTS because it is ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE GAMBLER and NOT THEM?!?!?
The
probabilities are all there and the prices for point buying also...now
it's just up to people to realize that the money that they "SAVE" from
buying points, IS NOT GREATER, than the juice they pay to buy those
points ON THE GAME WHERE THE POINTS DID NOT MATTER. Besides people not understanding what they are LOSING by buying points, people buy points FOR PEACE OF MIND.
It
DOES feel good to buy points. It makes you feel like you are NOT going
to lose, but really it should only make you feel 2.2% better on "The
Hook" and only 12.03% on 3 points.
PEACE OF MIND is what you are REALLY buying AND that peace of mind is EXPENSIVE! Nothing in life is free.
YEP! One thing I have NOT mentioned is that in basketball, the point scoring is linear in 1, 2 or 3 point increments. Football is mainly 3 and 7 and there fore COULD be PROFITABLE...but the research and analysis is TOO COMPLEX for me to keep track of and run results on.
BUT, IMHO, I would imagine that as it would seem like a good idea to buy to 3 or 7, my personal opinion would be that it would LOSE MORE MONEY through the JUICE you would pay on ALL of the bets where buying the POINTS WOULD NOT MATTER.
These sport books don't put OPTIONS out there that are to the GAMBLER'S ADVANTAGE instead of THEIR advantage.
MORE WAYS FOR A BETTOR TO LOSE THEIR MONEY.
BUT, I may one day do some research on Buying Points in Football....as for now I can not say, or say, that point buying in football is PROFITABLE over LOSING MORE MONEY.
YEP! One thing I have NOT mentioned is that in basketball, the point scoring is linear in 1, 2 or 3 point increments. Football is mainly 3 and 7 and there fore COULD be PROFITABLE...but the research and analysis is TOO COMPLEX for me to keep track of and run results on.
BUT, IMHO, I would imagine that as it would seem like a good idea to buy to 3 or 7, my personal opinion would be that it would LOSE MORE MONEY through the JUICE you would pay on ALL of the bets where buying the POINTS WOULD NOT MATTER.
These sport books don't put OPTIONS out there that are to the GAMBLER'S ADVANTAGE instead of THEIR advantage.
MORE WAYS FOR A BETTOR TO LOSE THEIR MONEY.
BUT, I may one day do some research on Buying Points in Football....as for now I can not say, or say, that point buying in football is PROFITABLE over LOSING MORE MONEY.
Buying points in FB is crucial. Especially in NFL, most games end with a FB or TD.
Buying points in BB is a lose/lose. half point costs 10%? Please, forget it! It might save in one or 2 games, but in a long run, it's a lose/lose (Basketball).
Buying points in FB is crucial. Especially in NFL, most games end with a FB or TD.
Buying points in BB is a lose/lose. half point costs 10%? Please, forget it! It might save in one or 2 games, but in a long run, it's a lose/lose (Basketball).
Buying points in FB is crucial. Especially in NFL, most games end with a FB or TD.
Buying points in BB is a lose/lose. half point costs 10%? Please, forget it! It might save in one or 2 games, but in a long run, it's a lose/lose (Basketball).
I'M GOING TO CALL YOU OUT ON:
"Especially in NFL, most games end with a Fg or TD."
FALSE
(Not trying to be an *ss, just pointing out that it is a MYTH)
Buying points in FB is crucial. Especially in NFL, most games end with a FB or TD.
Buying points in BB is a lose/lose. half point costs 10%? Please, forget it! It might save in one or 2 games, but in a long run, it's a lose/lose (Basketball).
I'M GOING TO CALL YOU OUT ON:
"Especially in NFL, most games end with a Fg or TD."
FALSE
(Not trying to be an *ss, just pointing out that it is a MYTH)
I can't imagine people are actually dumb enough to buy points or tease basketball.
These games have totals upwards of 120 a majority of the time. Why not trying teasing an NFL game with a total of 45 or so, meaning you are actually getting something of value as you lay more juice.
I can't imagine people are actually dumb enough to buy points or tease basketball.
These games have totals upwards of 120 a majority of the time. Why not trying teasing an NFL game with a total of 45 or so, meaning you are actually getting something of value as you lay more juice.
\/-----NFL DATA ON BUYING 1/2 POINT NEAR OR ON 3 OR 7 POINTS-----\/
First things first....let me put this highly believed thought to rest:
MOST NFL games end by 3 or 7.
FALSE
Out of the 256 games of the 2012 NFL Regular Season, there were only 60 games that ended by 3 or 7.
60/256 = 23.4% or a little under 1 out of every 4 games ends by a FG or TD.
-------------------------------------------------
To
derive these stats, I pulled them from VegasInsider.com, I've been
using them for all the NCAA and NBA point-buying data, and am sticking
with them just because of familiarity, so a few of the Ending Spreads
may differ from Covers.com as far as "closing spreads" may be.
I'm
not going to type up every stat for every week as it is a lot of data,
but will give you the Totals as I did above for finding out how many
games end by a FG or TD.
Now here is the data VS the SPREAD:
Out of the 256 games played in the regular season, 136 games had a spread that was either ON 3 or 7 OR 1/2 point away from 3 or 7.
Given
that, on any game where it is ON 3 or 7, I will buy the "HOOK" or 1/2
point FOR THE WIN and will use the -120 juice for the 1/2 point. So,
each game in this category WINS you $100 on the
$120 bet. Also, since I'm assuming nobody is dumb enough to buy 1/2
point on BOTH teams, i will assume we only bought points on 1 of the 2
teams to get a win instead of a push.
Also,
on games where it is 1/2 point AWAY FROM 3 or 7, I will buy the "HOOK"
or 1/2 point FOR THE PUSH and will also use the -120 juice for the 1/2
point. So, each game in this category will "SAVE" a $120 bet. Also, in each of these games, the 1/2 point will only be bought for 1 of the 2 teams as you either buy 1/2 point on -3.5 or +2.5, or -7.5 or +6.5.
(Hopefully that all made sense)
Of the 136 games that had a spread that was near or on 3 or 7,...10 games would have pushed instead of lost and 3 would have won instead of pushed.
13 out of 136 bets would have been affected by buying the 1/2 point or 9.56%.
WAS IT WORTH IT?!?!?
10 bets x $120 on the pushes = $1,200 3 bets x winning $100 = $300
$1,500 TOTAL SAVINGS
What you paid in juice:
The
rest of the 123 bets (or 90.44%) regardless of win or lose, you paid an
extra $10 in juice whether you lost $10 more than only betting $110 on
the ORIGINAL SPREAD at -110 odds to get the same Win Amount OR you lost
$10 more than you would have had you Only bet $110 on the -110 ORIGINAL
SPREAD....SO:
123 X $10 = $1,230 paid in juice. CONCLUSION:
THE AMOUNT OF MONEY "SAVED" ($1,500) BY BUYING THE "HOOK" OR 1/2 POINT NEAR 3 OR 7 WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE AMOUNT PAID FOR THE 1/2 POINT ON ALL THE GAMES WHERE IT DID NOT MATTER.
BUYING 1/2 POINT ON GAMES NEAR OR ON 3 OR 7 WAS PROFITABLE DURING THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON.
Small Caution:
Although 1 full regular season does seem like a good sample size, I'd
be interested in furthering the research with a bigger sample size,
maybe with post-season included.
These numbers are good enough for me to convince me that buying points CAN be PROFITABLE at least in the NFL.
ONE LAST STAT I NOTICED: BESIDES THE 3 GAMES THAT PUSHED ON 3 OR 7, THERE WERE ONLY 2 GAMES OUT OF 256 GAMES IN THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON THAT PUSHED ON A NUMBER DIFFERENT FROM 3 OR 7.
Week
12 there was a push on +/-1 and in Week 13 there was a push on
+/-8,...so I think it is safe to conclude that buying 1/2 point ANYWHERE
OTHER THAN 3 OR 7 WAS A WASTE OF YOUR MONEY IN THE 2012 NFL REGULAR
SEASON.
Best of Luck Guys, I finally took
the time to research buying 1/2 points near 3 or 7 which turned out to
be PROFITABLE in the 2012 NFL Regular Season and it was a WASTE OF MONEY
ANYWHERE OTHER THAN 3 OR 7.....NOT EVEN ON OR NEAR 10 POINTS!
\/-----NFL DATA ON BUYING 1/2 POINT NEAR OR ON 3 OR 7 POINTS-----\/
First things first....let me put this highly believed thought to rest:
MOST NFL games end by 3 or 7.
FALSE
Out of the 256 games of the 2012 NFL Regular Season, there were only 60 games that ended by 3 or 7.
60/256 = 23.4% or a little under 1 out of every 4 games ends by a FG or TD.
-------------------------------------------------
To
derive these stats, I pulled them from VegasInsider.com, I've been
using them for all the NCAA and NBA point-buying data, and am sticking
with them just because of familiarity, so a few of the Ending Spreads
may differ from Covers.com as far as "closing spreads" may be.
I'm
not going to type up every stat for every week as it is a lot of data,
but will give you the Totals as I did above for finding out how many
games end by a FG or TD.
Now here is the data VS the SPREAD:
Out of the 256 games played in the regular season, 136 games had a spread that was either ON 3 or 7 OR 1/2 point away from 3 or 7.
Given
that, on any game where it is ON 3 or 7, I will buy the "HOOK" or 1/2
point FOR THE WIN and will use the -120 juice for the 1/2 point. So,
each game in this category WINS you $100 on the
$120 bet. Also, since I'm assuming nobody is dumb enough to buy 1/2
point on BOTH teams, i will assume we only bought points on 1 of the 2
teams to get a win instead of a push.
Also,
on games where it is 1/2 point AWAY FROM 3 or 7, I will buy the "HOOK"
or 1/2 point FOR THE PUSH and will also use the -120 juice for the 1/2
point. So, each game in this category will "SAVE" a $120 bet. Also, in each of these games, the 1/2 point will only be bought for 1 of the 2 teams as you either buy 1/2 point on -3.5 or +2.5, or -7.5 or +6.5.
(Hopefully that all made sense)
Of the 136 games that had a spread that was near or on 3 or 7,...10 games would have pushed instead of lost and 3 would have won instead of pushed.
13 out of 136 bets would have been affected by buying the 1/2 point or 9.56%.
WAS IT WORTH IT?!?!?
10 bets x $120 on the pushes = $1,200 3 bets x winning $100 = $300
$1,500 TOTAL SAVINGS
What you paid in juice:
The
rest of the 123 bets (or 90.44%) regardless of win or lose, you paid an
extra $10 in juice whether you lost $10 more than only betting $110 on
the ORIGINAL SPREAD at -110 odds to get the same Win Amount OR you lost
$10 more than you would have had you Only bet $110 on the -110 ORIGINAL
SPREAD....SO:
123 X $10 = $1,230 paid in juice. CONCLUSION:
THE AMOUNT OF MONEY "SAVED" ($1,500) BY BUYING THE "HOOK" OR 1/2 POINT NEAR 3 OR 7 WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE AMOUNT PAID FOR THE 1/2 POINT ON ALL THE GAMES WHERE IT DID NOT MATTER.
BUYING 1/2 POINT ON GAMES NEAR OR ON 3 OR 7 WAS PROFITABLE DURING THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON.
Small Caution:
Although 1 full regular season does seem like a good sample size, I'd
be interested in furthering the research with a bigger sample size,
maybe with post-season included.
These numbers are good enough for me to convince me that buying points CAN be PROFITABLE at least in the NFL.
ONE LAST STAT I NOTICED: BESIDES THE 3 GAMES THAT PUSHED ON 3 OR 7, THERE WERE ONLY 2 GAMES OUT OF 256 GAMES IN THE 2012 NFL REGULAR SEASON THAT PUSHED ON A NUMBER DIFFERENT FROM 3 OR 7.
Week
12 there was a push on +/-1 and in Week 13 there was a push on
+/-8,...so I think it is safe to conclude that buying 1/2 point ANYWHERE
OTHER THAN 3 OR 7 WAS A WASTE OF YOUR MONEY IN THE 2012 NFL REGULAR
SEASON.
Best of Luck Guys, I finally took
the time to research buying 1/2 points near 3 or 7 which turned out to
be PROFITABLE in the 2012 NFL Regular Season and it was a WASTE OF MONEY
ANYWHERE OTHER THAN 3 OR 7.....NOT EVEN ON OR NEAR 10 POINTS!
Hold on....I wasn't convinced that only 256 games from 1 regular season was a big enough sample...I'm going through previous regular seasons right now and the numbers are different AND I also caught some INACCURACIES in my sifting through the data.
I had to switch to Covers.com which took some getting used to, but I've double checked all my data and FOR NOW, I can at least say that in 2012-13 regular season, after switching to Cover's stats and final odds, the numbers are not 13 out of 136 (9.56%) where 1/2 point mattered....but the numbers have dropped to 9 out of 121 games or 7.44% of games were affected by buying 1/2 point.
More to come, I wanted to sift through at least the scores and spreads that Covers has for the NFL in which they go back only 7 full season to 06-07.
I will post sometime today, but I need a bigger sample and need to sift through data so the percentages are a better average of probability.
Hold on....I wasn't convinced that only 256 games from 1 regular season was a big enough sample...I'm going through previous regular seasons right now and the numbers are different AND I also caught some INACCURACIES in my sifting through the data.
I had to switch to Covers.com which took some getting used to, but I've double checked all my data and FOR NOW, I can at least say that in 2012-13 regular season, after switching to Cover's stats and final odds, the numbers are not 13 out of 136 (9.56%) where 1/2 point mattered....but the numbers have dropped to 9 out of 121 games or 7.44% of games were affected by buying 1/2 point.
More to come, I wanted to sift through at least the scores and spreads that Covers has for the NFL in which they go back only 7 full season to 06-07.
I will post sometime today, but I need a bigger sample and need to sift through data so the percentages are a better average of probability.
Great thread. To me, buying points, as shown in your statistical data, makes absolutely no sense in basketball. This is due to the massive amount of variants due to big point totals, larger swings, faster paced game, etc. I don't want to get any further into it as I have no interest in writing another paper right now on top of studying for 3 mid terms. Again, great thread that SHOULD help numerous people.
Great thread. To me, buying points, as shown in your statistical data, makes absolutely no sense in basketball. This is due to the massive amount of variants due to big point totals, larger swings, faster paced game, etc. I don't want to get any further into it as I have no interest in writing another paper right now on top of studying for 3 mid terms. Again, great thread that SHOULD help numerous people.
I do agree with you. Statistically, it's a lose/lose if buying points in any sports.
I do buy .5 points in football only in favorites of 3.5 or 7.5 and only in the game I think the probability of a close game is high. This is only good for selective players who play 1-3 games/week with high unit.
With mass players (5-10 games/week, no matter high or low unit), buying points will be a lose/lose in a long run.
I do agree with you. Statistically, it's a lose/lose if buying points in any sports.
I do buy .5 points in football only in favorites of 3.5 or 7.5 and only in the game I think the probability of a close game is high. This is only good for selective players who play 1-3 games/week with high unit.
With mass players (5-10 games/week, no matter high or low unit), buying points will be a lose/lose in a long run.
I do agree with you. Statistically, it's a lose/lose if buying points in any sports.
I do buy .5 points in football only in favorites of 3.5 or 7.5 and only in the game I think the probability of a close game is high. This is only good for selective players who play 1-3 games/week with high unit.
With mass players (5-10 games/week, no matter high or low unit), buying points will be a lose/lose in a long run.
It doesn't matter how big or small the unit is,...it's all about the percentage of WHATEVER you bet. The probabilities and juice PERCENTAGES are all the same....it's just a matter of HOW MUCH you lose, but just because you are "saving" or losing $1000 as compared to a guy with a budget of $10, it is all RELATIVE to what your bank roll is and what you can afford.
All I am saying is it doesn't matter that you bet HIGH UNITS, it'll still take the same percentage of your bankroll or bet as it does a poor man. It's all relative.
AND,...I'm ready to post 7 years of NFL Regular Season data on point buying 1/2 point to 3 and 7 in this forum, NBA, and NFL DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE NFL SEASON IS OVER AND NODODY VISITS THE NFL FORUM RIGHT NOW.
I'm going to post in in the basketball forums because it is COMMONLY THOUGHT that it is OK or PROFITABLE to buy to 3 or 7 seeing as MOST people believe that MOST football games end in a winning margin of 3 or 7.
FALSE
I will post soon, look for the 7 Season of NFL Data.
I do agree with you. Statistically, it's a lose/lose if buying points in any sports.
I do buy .5 points in football only in favorites of 3.5 or 7.5 and only in the game I think the probability of a close game is high. This is only good for selective players who play 1-3 games/week with high unit.
With mass players (5-10 games/week, no matter high or low unit), buying points will be a lose/lose in a long run.
It doesn't matter how big or small the unit is,...it's all about the percentage of WHATEVER you bet. The probabilities and juice PERCENTAGES are all the same....it's just a matter of HOW MUCH you lose, but just because you are "saving" or losing $1000 as compared to a guy with a budget of $10, it is all RELATIVE to what your bank roll is and what you can afford.
All I am saying is it doesn't matter that you bet HIGH UNITS, it'll still take the same percentage of your bankroll or bet as it does a poor man. It's all relative.
AND,...I'm ready to post 7 years of NFL Regular Season data on point buying 1/2 point to 3 and 7 in this forum, NBA, and NFL DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE NFL SEASON IS OVER AND NODODY VISITS THE NFL FORUM RIGHT NOW.
I'm going to post in in the basketball forums because it is COMMONLY THOUGHT that it is OK or PROFITABLE to buy to 3 or 7 seeing as MOST people believe that MOST football games end in a winning margin of 3 or 7.
FALSE
I will post soon, look for the 7 Season of NFL Data.
I did a BIGGER SAMPLING of data of the last 7 NFL Regular Seasons and the average amount of games that were affected was NOT great enough to make a profit overall.
Check out the last 7 seasons worth of data under the title:
NCAA FORUM - BUYING THE HOOK TO 3 AND 7 IN THE NFL - FULL 7 YEARS OF STATS AND PROBABILITIES INSIDE
I did a BIGGER SAMPLING of data of the last 7 NFL Regular Seasons and the average amount of games that were affected was NOT great enough to make a profit overall.
Check out the last 7 seasons worth of data under the title:
NCAA FORUM - BUYING THE HOOK TO 3 AND 7 IN THE NFL - FULL 7 YEARS OF STATS AND PROBABILITIES INSIDE
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