November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 55-41, +51.10
February Leans: 52-45
As Conference Tournament’s get into full gear, just a couple thoughts from me. First and foremost, my main focus is on teams who hold value. What do I mean by value? Clearly, it’s a different type of value than in the regular season. In regular season, you have those certain spots where lookaheads, letdowns, travel, short rest, no prep, and on and on and on. Some of those spots still tend to open up in the postseason, however the greater focus of value or where I see it slightly changes. Where did I have these teams projected prior to any ball being tossed up in the air in conference play? Why did these teams not project to finish the season where I thought they would? Did they give up, have no shot at a conference crown, injuries, a couple bad defeats here or there? This is just a personal opinion, but my center of attention is aimed at underachieving pups. I will take some chances on short favorites if the value is there, but more a focal point of pups. And, I don’t have any statistical analysis or anything that is proven, but an over is never dead, regardless of the score. Teams will foul a ton earlier than normal, and most games come with a ton more foul shots than a regular season game because of it. Again, just a few thoughts from my perspective. Within the Big South tournament that kicks off today, I don’t have too much interest in any game that UNC Asheville takes part in. They played an extremely tough non-conference schedule, and that experience led to a four game win in the conference regular season. Rounds 2 and 3 are taking place on their home court (these couple first games today are at the #7 and #8 seeds home gymnasiums). Nobody really is in the same class as UNC Asheville. Maybe a Coastal Carolina, who did beat UNC Asheville, but that game was on the road and meant absolutely nothing to Asheville as they had the conference locked up. Assuming Asheville takes care of business with their first two games, they get the final at home on Saturday. With that said, I don’t see any value in the first round games in the Big South. I projected VMI to be in the upper half of the Big South, and they did have a disappointing regular season because they don’t defend. They play an extremely fast paced tempo, and in that type of game can probably outscore Radford on that basis alone. These two met twice in the regular season, and the awkwardness is this. The low possession game yielded more points than the high possession game. This is a common theme with bad defenses and fast paces. You never really know what you’re going to get. I think with Radford, I had them projected to be one of the better defenses in a really fast conference which really means something to me if the game ever gets slowed down. If you have been reading, I’m more of a defensive type of guy, so this is a game that probably isn’t in my best interest to gauge how it’s going to play out. In the other game between the 8 and 9 (High Point and GW), I actually projected both to be in the cellar, so no interest in trying to determine which team will suck less tonight. Future spots in the tournament that might open up of interest to me occur in the second round. I’m expecting VMI to continue their ultra fast pace tonight, and if that occurs, they will have played their sixth straight game over 73 possessions and then go on the road where they only have 1 road win on the year (coincidentally against Radford) against at team in Coastal Carolina who’s going to slow them down in a noon game on Wednesday in a rematch of a 2nd round game in last year’s tournament (which came in with a CC victory by the score of 89-81). Winthrop has immediate double revenge – awfully tough to beat a team 3 times in one season. Charleston Southern also draws Liberty in their first game, when they have played a few close ballgames this year, and Liberty’s been playing better ball as of late (I projected Liberty a few spots ahead of CSouthern), so I am definitely interested there and probably get some points. Rest of the tourney, I will see how it plays out.
Other games today – yuck. No interest in the SWAC. No interest in Big Sky suck versus suck in a game that means nothing. One little note there, is that NAU has been playing a bit of zone lately, and teams have been lighting the piss out of them. Montana State will shoot a ton as it’s their main source of offensive output. Notre Dame doesn’t interest me on the back-end of a two game roady with virtually no prep time against size and an opponent that defends the arc pretty well and an opponent that will get tons of extra opportunities based on size alone in the paint. Since the opening week of the season, Brey’s been horrific with no time to prep (two days). Lost to Georgia on a neutral by 4, and lost to Rutgers on the road by 7, although they did beat Sacred Heart at home by 41 and Dartmouth by 18. They come into a totally different style, probably one they’re more suited to play, I just don’t think a snail pace and a burn is something they want to utilize against Georgetown, who won’t mind it. Tough spot for Notre Dame, but I’m not touching it. Kansas in an obvious letdown spot, possible sandwich, but technically still playing for an outright conference championship. With no Nash, uh, offense falls to Page, and uh, Johnson will be guarding him. No clue how they score or where the offense comes from, but no interest in backing Kansas on the road after Saturday’s comeback. I don’t do Texas Tech games.
Nothing tonight, other than the Daytona I posted Sunday.
GL