...From an offensive standpoint, the thing that sticks out with VCU is that they’re aggressive. They don’t come down and jack up stupid shots, they attack and they keep attacking until they can kick out for an open shot, or get into the lane and score or dish for an easy bucket. If you were to just look at VCU both this year and last and see the stats, you would focus on the fact that they shoot the 3-ball a heckuva lot, but if you were to watch the games, it is not really a focal point it just happens because the slashers and attackers force so many openings against opponent defenses. This is the type of offense I want going against Richmond. From an intangible perspective, clearly, the familiarity is here with both teams as kids are familiar with one another and the emotion in this one should be pretty high for both teams this early in the year. As young as Dayton is, I think they’re walking into a bad situation here. They’re on the tail end of a five game roady and have Iona on tap. Furthermore, they’re walking into a hostile environment that even an experienced team has had difficulty with in past years. From the looks of it, VCU really hasn’t gone against this style of defense in past years other than playing Richmond each and every year, but the familiarity is there. Shaka’s main man, associate head coach Mike Rhoades is the main reason. Having coached at nearby D-III Randolph Macon for ten years before joining Smart’s Staff, he ran the exact same offense and defense that Richmond employs on a nightly basis. Him using that system at the D-III level led to multiple tournament appearances, and numerous top 25 rankings. He’s familiar with what Richmond wants to do from an offensive and defensive standpoint, and a full four normal practices this week should be plenty of prep time. I say normal, because they’re at home, they’re not traveling, and they’re sticking to the normal routine, while Richmond has been far from that. Clearly, I have put a ton of emphasis on the matchups and what each team does within its offensive and defensive philophies. But I think the bottom line is that I don’t trust Richmond in this spot. They are young, and while pretty talented, they have yet to go into any environment they’re going into tonight on national television, adding to that a fifth straight game on the road, against an offense that is going to attack your defense and against a defense that is going to pressure the living piss out of inexperienced guards. Richmond has yet to see any kind of full court pressure, so given the above, Shaka’s probably going to take advantage of that, and come after them early as these Richmond guards have shown a knack for turning the ball over at times. Here’s what I’m hoping for. I need VCU to get off to a fast start. I need VCU to attack as they always do. I need the crowd to play a factor. I need Richmond to lose a bit of focus and get away from slowing the pace and get up and down a bit. And most importantly, I need one really important matchup to go in my favor, and that matchup lies on each team’s bench. Richmond’s best offensive weapon comes off the bench in freshman Kendal Anthony. He’s a 5’8” quick as a jet skinny toothpick guard who is the leading scorer and main distributor of the basketball in this offense. He can attack, and he can shoot the 3. When he comes in the game, this Richmond team becomes a much better offensive weapon than the starting five they trot out for the tip. He brings this team energy, and has sparked them off the bench in numerous games thus far. In fact, he just put up a career high 21 points at Wake Forest. Hello Kendal, meet Briante Weber. As Richmond looks for an offensive spark off the bench, Shaka turns to defense (Granted, Weber could start tonight as he has started a few games this year, but as of late Shaka has gone with the better offense to start games). Weber should have one goal tonight, and that’s to slow down Anthony. At 6’3” and as toothpick skinny as Anthony and just as quick, he should have no problems in containing him. In the game against Seton Hall, I saw a kid flying all over the friggin place and immediately chucked it up to being early in the season and Shaka really hasn’t taught the kid anything within the scheme. Then I watched the WKU game, and followed the 2nd WKU game, and most recently the two home games, and I realized ya know what, this is what this kid does. He gets after it, and he puts pressure on the opposing guards (usually the team’s best scorer) unlike anything I have ever seen from the standpoint of staying within a defensive system. What has he done this year? Well, he’s currently second in the country in steals per minutes played, a stat that could be even better had this team had any offensive presence early on in the season. He guarded Theodore from Seton Hall and held him to a rough shooting outing (Theo had all of his points from the foul line late). This kid took Releford completely out of the Alabama game, a major reason they stayed remotely close for the entire game. He guarded PG Blake Nash in the USF game, held him to 0 field goals, their offense never got on track and they scored 46 points. For those of you who fall in love with tough gritty players that actually like to defend in today’s game, enjoy watching Weber, this kid has what it takes. And that’s the difference. When you can slow down the spark that Anthony brings to the table, more than likely your chances of winning the ballgame become really good. I expect a bit of a chess match with Shaka early. I think he’s best to keep Weber on the bench until Anthony enters, but I’d be OK with both starting. They should find themselves on each other early and often, and it should be the key matchup in how this one turns out. Outside of the matchups, VCU has a nice sold out home court advantage here. Along with that, they have the familiarity of what they’ll want to do tonight and should have the upper hand against a team that really hasn’t seen any pressure and is going on the road for the fifth straight game with darling Iona on deck.
2* Virginia Commonwealth ML -150
GL