Pre-All Star Break
31-27-3 NBA +0u
5-1 NCAAB +4.9u
Post-All Star Break
59-42 NBA +19.9u
3-0 NCAAB +3u
NBA Regular Season: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.9u
NBA Playoffs: 29-16 (64.4%) +17.25u
Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-110)
I took this line last night because it will slide to +4.5 by game time. In my write-up for game 1, I said Dallas was a public dog and it felt like backing Miami at home was like backing the underdog. I bet Miami, and they won that game pretty easily. It only took that one game for Miami to regain their place on the top of the public's most wanted list. I've been on Dallas ever since. This was a great series to be fading the public - and when you're fading the public, there's no better scenario than to fade a public dog.
Let me eat my own words now. Dallas entering game 6 in Miami is once again a public dog. Dallas has really only WON 1 out of their 3 victories this series. The other two, were MIAMI LOSSES, not Dallas wins. Miami is the better team. They play better defense and they have two of the most prolific scorers in the NBA. I've said this before, and I'll say it again: if they execute, they will win. Problem is, they haven't been executing. Why is that? Well, for starters, none of the Miami players are playing with a sense of urgency. They all believe that there are 10 more championship runs coming in the next 10 years. They already believe that they are a dynasty. Dallas on the other hand, is a veteran team with a better coach. They are playing with EXTREME URGENCY. They know that this one series is their last chance to win the Larry O'Brien trophy. Their fans know this as well. They're playing for broke and executing when it counts, and Miami just isn't. They're waltzing through this series like they've already won it... well they haven't. All of a sudden, the public has realized all of this, and they're back on Dallas. So based on what I've said in the beginning of this write-up, I should be jumping all over Miami in game 6. Well, I'm not - and I'll tell you why.
I'm writing this from a hotel room in Miami. I've been here for the last 5 days. I've spent a lot of time walking around the city and I've gone to sports bars every night for some action. Do you know how many people I've heard talking about Miami being in the finals? Not one. Nobody is wearing jerseys, no bars are having specials for the games, no cars or buildings are decorated - I even was at a Marlins game during game 5 and they only flashed the Heat score on the big screen once during the game - when they were winning in the first half (nobody cheered). Nobody cares about the Heat, and the way they're playing right now, even less people are paying attention. When the Heat come home for game 6, they're going to play in an arena full of pink-hatted fans all holding their breath. Even if they build a big lead during the game, the arena won't feel safe. Home court advantage? They never had it. Don't expect the Miami fans to give them the lift they need when they return home from Dallas.
Dallas should seize this opportunity. I feel like I'm beating a dead bush by saying this again, but game 6 is Dallas' game 7. They've played their last 2 games with game 7 intensity, and they'll carry this momentum into game 6 when Miami's home court and moral will be at its weakest. If Dallas loses this game, they'll be in serious trouble for game 7. The series will turn overnight into a winner-take-all home game for the Heat. Their fans will suddenly feel hope again and their players will believe that they can get it done after all. Even if Dallas covers the spread but loses game 6, I will likely by on Miami in game 7. That being said, you would be a fool to not bet Dallas in game 6. The Miami players know that there will be half-a-dozen more championship opportunities. The Miami fans know this. Even the NBA knows this. Dallas knows that this is their last chance. I even expect Dallas to get some help from the officials again even in Miami since it will make a better story if they win. Nobody will cry over a Miami loss, because there's always next year. I actually think it will be better for Miami (and the NBA) in the long run if Dallas wins this year. Miami will lose their sense of entitlement and it will send a message to other teams that just having a super-trio does not necessarily equal easy championships. Better coaching and better team ball wins championships. If they lose (and assuming they stay healthy), Miami will be a very dangerous team for many years to come. They will win multiple championships.
But this year, looks to be Dallas' year. I think Dallas will win game 6, but 2-1 on the ML isn't worth the 5.5 points I can get on a straight wager. Take the points here knowing that you're on the right team (not necessarily the better team).