Tennessee at Jacksonville:
Tennessee opened at pick-em, and was bet up by Sharps to as high as
-2.5. We’re now seeing Titans -2 everywhere. Jacksonville backers became
convinced the full field goal was never going to come into play. This
is right in the teaser window that Sharps like to exploit. The Jaguars
+8 will be in a lot of teasers over the weekend because the six-point
move crosses both the 3 and the 7. The Jaguars may lead the division at
the moment but the market obviously sees Tennessee as the superior
neutral field team based on this price.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Baltimore opened at -7, and has been bet up to -8. That will also be in
the teaser window (from the other direction to Baltimore -2) if the line
doesn’t move much before kickoff. I’ve talked to a few Sharps who were
impressed with Cleveland last week but betting support for the Browns is
more likely to come in home dog rather than road dog roles unless
Cleveland hangs close again this week. Some support for the Under after
good outings by both defenses in Week 1.
Buffalo at Carolina:
Looks like a tug-of-war developing between Carolina -7 and Buffalo +7.5.
Sharps don’t think much of Buffalo this season but it’s hard to ask for
blowouts early in the season with so many low scoring games being
played, and Cam Newton looked rusty last week. Sharps who won with
Carolina over SF didn’t mind laying the seven, but won’t lay the hook.
Dog lovers are brought in by that hook.
New England at New Orleans:
Before the Monday nighters were played, some shops had posted New
England -4.5. Seeing the Saints struggles in Minnesota, others opened at
New England -6.5. We’re now seeing a tug-of-war between New England -6
and New Orleans +6.5. Dog lovers know that Brees has a great chance to
either spring an upset or come in through the back door at home against a
Patriots defense that was soft vs. Kansas City, while systems players
have noted that New England has a huge edge in preparation time. The
Pats played a week ago Thursday and New Orleans is on a short week after
MNF. Strong support for the Over in what figures to be a track meet
between two good offensive teams with shaky looking defensive units.
Tennessee at Jacksonville:
Tennessee opened at pick-em, and was bet up by Sharps to as high as
-2.5. We’re now seeing Titans -2 everywhere. Jacksonville backers became
convinced the full field goal was never going to come into play. This
is right in the teaser window that Sharps like to exploit. The Jaguars
+8 will be in a lot of teasers over the weekend because the six-point
move crosses both the 3 and the 7. The Jaguars may lead the division at
the moment but the market obviously sees Tennessee as the superior
neutral field team based on this price.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Baltimore opened at -7, and has been bet up to -8. That will also be in
the teaser window (from the other direction to Baltimore -2) if the line
doesn’t move much before kickoff. I’ve talked to a few Sharps who were
impressed with Cleveland last week but betting support for the Browns is
more likely to come in home dog rather than road dog roles unless
Cleveland hangs close again this week. Some support for the Under after
good outings by both defenses in Week 1.
Buffalo at Carolina:
Looks like a tug-of-war developing between Carolina -7 and Buffalo +7.5.
Sharps don’t think much of Buffalo this season but it’s hard to ask for
blowouts early in the season with so many low scoring games being
played, and Cam Newton looked rusty last week. Sharps who won with
Carolina over SF didn’t mind laying the seven, but won’t lay the hook.
Dog lovers are brought in by that hook.
New England at New Orleans:
Before the Monday nighters were played, some shops had posted New
England -4.5. Seeing the Saints struggles in Minnesota, others opened at
New England -6.5. We’re now seeing a tug-of-war between New England -6
and New Orleans +6.5. Dog lovers know that Brees has a great chance to
either spring an upset or come in through the back door at home against a
Patriots defense that was soft vs. Kansas City, while systems players
have noted that New England has a huge edge in preparation time. The
Pats played a week ago Thursday and New Orleans is on a short week after
MNF. Strong support for the Over in what figures to be a track meet
between two good offensive teams with shaky looking defensive units.
Arizona at Indianapolis:
Arizona’s been a solid -7 all week. Many bettors are waiting to see
which quarterback the Colts are going to choose. Scott Tolzien was awful
last week in Los Angeles. Jacoby Brissett is seen as having a better
shot to at least compete. Not likely to be a highly bet game because
that’s a high price for a shaky road favorite. Sharps will likely fade
any move off the key number of seven just for line value. Sportsbooks
are hesitant to bring -7.5 or -8 into play because that will cause a
flood of teasers with Arizona in them. Most want to wait and see what
these squads do in week 2 before investing either way, as they both
looked just awful in week 1.
Philadelphia at Kansas City:
Very interesting game and betting dynamic here. Sharps love Philadelphia
as a dark horse in the NFC East. You saw that line move at Washington
last week…and then the Eagles covered easily. But, Kansas City looked
GREAT last week at New England, and now has a lot of extra time to
prepare. An opener of KC -4.5 has been bet up to -5.5 or -6 because
Eagles money isn’t sure if this is the place to make a stand against the
systems players, though they would come in big on the dog if the seven
comes into play
Minnesota at Pittsburgh:
Some similarities here to the game above. The host is a quality AFC team
with extra preparation time. The visitor is a decent NFC dog that would
get more support if not for the short turnaround. Even so, an opener of
Pittsburgh -6.5 has been bet down to -6 or -5.5 because Minnesota has a
very good defense and the Steelers couldn’t separate themselves
convincingly from the Browns last week. Of the two games, Sharps clearly
prefer taking a shot on the Vikings rather than the Eagles.
Chicago at Tampa Bay:
We’re now up to Tampa Bay -7 after the game opened at -5.5 earlier this
week. Awkward handicapping spot because the Bucs could be rusty after
so much time off. Their game with Miami was postponed by weather last
week and their starters sat out the preseason finale. Chicago covered
vs. Atlanta, and could have won outright, but they didn’t have great
stats in that game, so Sharps like getting Tampa Bay at anything under a
touchdown.
Arizona at Indianapolis:
Arizona’s been a solid -7 all week. Many bettors are waiting to see
which quarterback the Colts are going to choose. Scott Tolzien was awful
last week in Los Angeles. Jacoby Brissett is seen as having a better
shot to at least compete. Not likely to be a highly bet game because
that’s a high price for a shaky road favorite. Sharps will likely fade
any move off the key number of seven just for line value. Sportsbooks
are hesitant to bring -7.5 or -8 into play because that will cause a
flood of teasers with Arizona in them. Most want to wait and see what
these squads do in week 2 before investing either way, as they both
looked just awful in week 1.
Philadelphia at Kansas City:
Very interesting game and betting dynamic here. Sharps love Philadelphia
as a dark horse in the NFC East. You saw that line move at Washington
last week…and then the Eagles covered easily. But, Kansas City looked
GREAT last week at New England, and now has a lot of extra time to
prepare. An opener of KC -4.5 has been bet up to -5.5 or -6 because
Eagles money isn’t sure if this is the place to make a stand against the
systems players, though they would come in big on the dog if the seven
comes into play
Minnesota at Pittsburgh:
Some similarities here to the game above. The host is a quality AFC team
with extra preparation time. The visitor is a decent NFC dog that would
get more support if not for the short turnaround. Even so, an opener of
Pittsburgh -6.5 has been bet down to -6 or -5.5 because Minnesota has a
very good defense and the Steelers couldn’t separate themselves
convincingly from the Browns last week. Of the two games, Sharps clearly
prefer taking a shot on the Vikings rather than the Eagles.
Chicago at Tampa Bay:
We’re now up to Tampa Bay -7 after the game opened at -5.5 earlier this
week. Awkward handicapping spot because the Bucs could be rusty after
so much time off. Their game with Miami was postponed by weather last
week and their starters sat out the preseason finale. Chicago covered
vs. Atlanta, and could have won outright, but they didn’t have great
stats in that game, so Sharps like getting Tampa Bay at anything under a
touchdown.
Miami at the LA Chargers:
The Chargers opened at -5, but have been bet down to -4 or -3.5 because
of a mostly poor showing at Denver. They did get close at the end
because of turnovers, but managed to lose while looking remarkably like
last year's snake bit San Diego Chargers. Late week money has come in
on the “weather” teams Tampa Bay and Miami. Interesting. Definitely a
“freshness” mismatch because Miami’s starters haven’t played in so long
while San Diego is coming off the Monday Nighter. Will the Fins and the
Bucs be rusty, or “rarin’ to go"? That’s the question for bettors in
these last two games.
NY Jets at Oakland:
Most stores opened around Oakland -13.5 or -14. For a while, everyone
was at -14. As I write this on Friday morning, everyone is back to
-13.5. Very interesting that the Jets would get that kind of support
from Sharps. They had horrible stats last week, and Oakland is a team
that can put points on the board. Important to note that Sharps didn’t
wait to see if the public pushed Oakland any higher (which definitely
could have happened). They wanted their money in at +14. That’s actually
pretty strong support for this ugly dog, but one difference between
Sharps and casual bettors is that Sharps buy numbers while squares buy
teams, so they will almost automatically take any double-digit underdog
in the NFL.
Washington at LA Rams:
Looks like a tug-of-war is developing here between the Rams -2.5 and
Washington +3. The opener of LAR -2 has been bet up throughout the week.
Stores are finally testing the key number of three because nobody
wanted Washington. Jared Goff beat Indy handily last week. Bettors will
be more impressed if he cashes vs. Washington. I’m guessing Washington
will either be in Sharp teasers at +8.5, or in regular bets at +3. Two
teams seemingly heading in opposite directions based on Week 1.
Miami at the LA Chargers:
The Chargers opened at -5, but have been bet down to -4 or -3.5 because
of a mostly poor showing at Denver. They did get close at the end
because of turnovers, but managed to lose while looking remarkably like
last year's snake bit San Diego Chargers. Late week money has come in
on the “weather” teams Tampa Bay and Miami. Interesting. Definitely a
“freshness” mismatch because Miami’s starters haven’t played in so long
while San Diego is coming off the Monday Nighter. Will the Fins and the
Bucs be rusty, or “rarin’ to go"? That’s the question for bettors in
these last two games.
NY Jets at Oakland:
Most stores opened around Oakland -13.5 or -14. For a while, everyone
was at -14. As I write this on Friday morning, everyone is back to
-13.5. Very interesting that the Jets would get that kind of support
from Sharps. They had horrible stats last week, and Oakland is a team
that can put points on the board. Important to note that Sharps didn’t
wait to see if the public pushed Oakland any higher (which definitely
could have happened). They wanted their money in at +14. That’s actually
pretty strong support for this ugly dog, but one difference between
Sharps and casual bettors is that Sharps buy numbers while squares buy
teams, so they will almost automatically take any double-digit underdog
in the NFL.
Washington at LA Rams:
Looks like a tug-of-war is developing here between the Rams -2.5 and
Washington +3. The opener of LAR -2 has been bet up throughout the week.
Stores are finally testing the key number of three because nobody
wanted Washington. Jared Goff beat Indy handily last week. Bettors will
be more impressed if he cashes vs. Washington. I’m guessing Washington
will either be in Sharp teasers at +8.5, or in regular bets at +3. Two
teams seemingly heading in opposite directions based on Week 1.
Dallas at Denver:
Some really good games this week. Dallas opened at -2, and has been
either -2 or -2.5 since then. That puts Denver in the teaser window on a
strong home field. How will the public bet a game like this? Squares
normally love betting Dallas, but they also love betting Denver at home.
Those who went to bed after the third quarter late Monday Night will
bet Denver, while those who stayed up for the whole game might go with
Dallas! This will be a heavily bet game in the late afternoon TV window.
Dallas might have to move down to pick-em or -1 for Sharps to take them
at this tough site. Denver (+) will be in Sharp teasers, and as a team
side if the key number of three comes into play.
San Francisco at Seattle:
Seattle opened at -13 in a bounce back spot on a strong home field
against an opponent that couldn’t hang with Carolina last week. The line
was driven up to the key number of -14. That slowed down the Seattle
money and brought in some Sharp dog money. I have seen a +13.5 or two
out there. Might be a tug-of-war on game day around the key number. As
noted, a lot of old school Sharps will take any double-digit dog in this
league.
Green Bay at Atlanta:
Atlanta opened on the key number of three. Many stores may just adjust
their vigorish prices because they don’t want to move the line and risk
the game landing on three and having to pay out “only winners”
afterward. Looks like there’s more interest on Green Bay at the
three…but Atlanta -2.5 would bring in Sharps and squares alike, while
also setting up Green Bay +8.5 in two-team teasers. Very tricky game for
sportsbooks…and a lot of people will want to bet this playoff rematch
that might also be a playoff preview.
MONDAY NIGHT
Detroit at NY Giants:
The Giants are going to be -3 if Odell Beckham Jr. can’t play, and more
like -3.5 or -4 if he can. The assumption now is that he’s going to be
out, or hobbled if he tries to go. Monitor the markets over the weekend
to see how Sharps end up betting this one once more information is
known. As it is Sharps are waiting to see what number they can get
against a very ordinary (sans Beckham) looking Giants offense..
Dallas at Denver:
Some really good games this week. Dallas opened at -2, and has been
either -2 or -2.5 since then. That puts Denver in the teaser window on a
strong home field. How will the public bet a game like this? Squares
normally love betting Dallas, but they also love betting Denver at home.
Those who went to bed after the third quarter late Monday Night will
bet Denver, while those who stayed up for the whole game might go with
Dallas! This will be a heavily bet game in the late afternoon TV window.
Dallas might have to move down to pick-em or -1 for Sharps to take them
at this tough site. Denver (+) will be in Sharp teasers, and as a team
side if the key number of three comes into play.
San Francisco at Seattle:
Seattle opened at -13 in a bounce back spot on a strong home field
against an opponent that couldn’t hang with Carolina last week. The line
was driven up to the key number of -14. That slowed down the Seattle
money and brought in some Sharp dog money. I have seen a +13.5 or two
out there. Might be a tug-of-war on game day around the key number. As
noted, a lot of old school Sharps will take any double-digit dog in this
league.
Green Bay at Atlanta:
Atlanta opened on the key number of three. Many stores may just adjust
their vigorish prices because they don’t want to move the line and risk
the game landing on three and having to pay out “only winners”
afterward. Looks like there’s more interest on Green Bay at the
three…but Atlanta -2.5 would bring in Sharps and squares alike, while
also setting up Green Bay +8.5 in two-team teasers. Very tricky game for
sportsbooks…and a lot of people will want to bet this playoff rematch
that might also be a playoff preview.
MONDAY NIGHT
Detroit at NY Giants:
The Giants are going to be -3 if Odell Beckham Jr. can’t play, and more
like -3.5 or -4 if he can. The assumption now is that he’s going to be
out, or hobbled if he tries to go. Monitor the markets over the weekend
to see how Sharps end up betting this one once more information is
known. As it is Sharps are waiting to see what number they can get
against a very ordinary (sans Beckham) looking Giants offense..
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