i'm going to try and get this out on tuesdays or wednesdays but it just depends on how busy i am each week.
week one, as you can tell from most of the bets in here, is about finding games where the spread is too high based on perceptions from last year. for instance, pittsburgh should be very good this season, but cleveland is better than people think and 9 points on the road is just too much to give, especially when, their best players sat ot all preseason./ i actually didn't think that would be a huge factor since bell is a veteran and has played with that offense for so long but when bell gets 32 yards on 10 carries, that obviously was a big factor. i'm sure he'll be fine this week.
week two is still about value if bettors aren't giving some of these teams we think are better enough credit. but it's also about overreactions to week one. some teams just aren't ready to play in week one. the saints were not a surprise. they've been a sh*t team with sh*t defensive coaching for years. the patriots was a big surprise. but, it happens, every season. the key is not to overreact to one week's performance, good or bad, especially when that week is week one.
the other key is if that some of these teams that played surprisingly well or poorly are actually pretty good or bad. now, which ones are those?
in any case, if you actually are interested in following the bets posted here, it pays to check in sunday night and monday. sometimes i see a team do something unexpected and then i look to see who they are playing the next week. if i like the matchup, i'll make sure i see the opening line. if i like it, i'll bet it. the last couple of seasons, these early bets beat the closing line just about every time. sometimes by quite a bit.
this week, i saw how dysfunctional houston was and how it app[ears the coaching staff has no idea what they are doing at qb. tha wouldn't be enough for an early bet but since the game is on thursday, they are playing a team that looked about as bad as possible, and i felt the line was too low, i put that one in. and then i kept looking and played 4 more. i may not keep them all, but the line movements will tell if making those early bets was a good idea. here are the bets that are in. i'll note line changes, if any, when i look at the games in more detail. if and when i buy out, i'll post it.
finally, a few major injury situations are still in limbo. if i miss it, you guys can let me know.
i'm going to try and get this out on tuesdays or wednesdays but it just depends on how busy i am each week.
week one, as you can tell from most of the bets in here, is about finding games where the spread is too high based on perceptions from last year. for instance, pittsburgh should be very good this season, but cleveland is better than people think and 9 points on the road is just too much to give, especially when, their best players sat ot all preseason./ i actually didn't think that would be a huge factor since bell is a veteran and has played with that offense for so long but when bell gets 32 yards on 10 carries, that obviously was a big factor. i'm sure he'll be fine this week.
week two is still about value if bettors aren't giving some of these teams we think are better enough credit. but it's also about overreactions to week one. some teams just aren't ready to play in week one. the saints were not a surprise. they've been a sh*t team with sh*t defensive coaching for years. the patriots was a big surprise. but, it happens, every season. the key is not to overreact to one week's performance, good or bad, especially when that week is week one.
the other key is if that some of these teams that played surprisingly well or poorly are actually pretty good or bad. now, which ones are those?
in any case, if you actually are interested in following the bets posted here, it pays to check in sunday night and monday. sometimes i see a team do something unexpected and then i look to see who they are playing the next week. if i like the matchup, i'll make sure i see the opening line. if i like it, i'll bet it. the last couple of seasons, these early bets beat the closing line just about every time. sometimes by quite a bit.
this week, i saw how dysfunctional houston was and how it app[ears the coaching staff has no idea what they are doing at qb. tha wouldn't be enough for an early bet but since the game is on thursday, they are playing a team that looked about as bad as possible, and i felt the line was too low, i put that one in. and then i kept looking and played 4 more. i may not keep them all, but the line movements will tell if making those early bets was a good idea. here are the bets that are in. i'll note line changes, if any, when i look at the games in more detail. if and when i buy out, i'll post it.
finally, a few major injury situations are still in limbo. if i miss it, you guys can let me know.
Houston @ Cincy -5 so far, so good, although watson's injury has been in the news more since sunday so i guess that's part of it. that really doesn't matter. houston has no clue what they are doing at qb either way.
first, cincy embarrassed themselves last week in a key divisional matchup. it's one game in week one but that could cost them the playoffs in this division. but, we like to bet on a team after a week where they were particularly bad, especially when it's a solid team and they re good enough to bounce back. any reversion here nd cincy should win this one fairly easily. the only way they don't is if watt, clwoney and mercilus show up (like i assumed they would last week) and dalton is running for his life and throwing picks like last week. that could happen and cincy could definitely lose.
and houston was the other team that embarrassed themselves well beyond what should be their talent/coaching floor so normally i would leave this alone or bet both of these teams if they were playing someone else. but, the qb situation, the coaching issues and the short week coupled with a line i thought was too low makes this a play for me. would i play it at 5? very possibly. i said in another thread i thought this should be 6/6.5 so obviously i had to jump on 3.
also, i don't want to forget our thursday night system. it's a different analysis, although related to the idea that bad coaches will not do well on a short week. in this one, i don't have an opinion. lewis is bad and gets a lot of garbage but he does get his team to the playoffs most seasons. o'brien is probably the better coach but doesn't have as good of a resume. i'm open to opinions but i don't think the coaching difference is clear enough for this to be a system play.
finally, just one thing about coaching. this is the kind of thing i like to point out and sometimes make a thread about in the nfl forum. late in the GB game, GB has the lead and is trying to run out the clock. it's 1st and 10 but they need a first down to end the game for certain. rodgers does his thing where he gets the defense to jump offsides and he has a free play. he throws it downfield, incomplete but there's another penalty on seattle. i think the second one was a 10 yard penalty (i don't recall the details), but it was a better penalty than a defensive offsides and an automatic first down. mccarthy, who's an idiot, takes the traditionally better penalty and gets the yardage and a 1st and 10. then rodgers overrules him and says, no fool, you take the defensive offsides. it's not an automatic first down, but it's first down already and you get a 1st and 5 rather than a 1st and 10 and all they need is a first down to end the game. 5 yards is shorter than 10 yards. and they showed rodgers point to his head, basically telling mccarthy, you have to be smart out here, not a f*cking idiot.
it wasn't a big deal, GB wins either way, but it's things like this that separate the smart coaches from the idiots. and every season, a few of these decisions cost teams big.
so anyway, no play on the thursday system for me, but a play on cincy at -3. if i try to middle out, i'll post.
Houston @ Cincy -5 so far, so good, although watson's injury has been in the news more since sunday so i guess that's part of it. that really doesn't matter. houston has no clue what they are doing at qb either way.
first, cincy embarrassed themselves last week in a key divisional matchup. it's one game in week one but that could cost them the playoffs in this division. but, we like to bet on a team after a week where they were particularly bad, especially when it's a solid team and they re good enough to bounce back. any reversion here nd cincy should win this one fairly easily. the only way they don't is if watt, clwoney and mercilus show up (like i assumed they would last week) and dalton is running for his life and throwing picks like last week. that could happen and cincy could definitely lose.
and houston was the other team that embarrassed themselves well beyond what should be their talent/coaching floor so normally i would leave this alone or bet both of these teams if they were playing someone else. but, the qb situation, the coaching issues and the short week coupled with a line i thought was too low makes this a play for me. would i play it at 5? very possibly. i said in another thread i thought this should be 6/6.5 so obviously i had to jump on 3.
also, i don't want to forget our thursday night system. it's a different analysis, although related to the idea that bad coaches will not do well on a short week. in this one, i don't have an opinion. lewis is bad and gets a lot of garbage but he does get his team to the playoffs most seasons. o'brien is probably the better coach but doesn't have as good of a resume. i'm open to opinions but i don't think the coaching difference is clear enough for this to be a system play.
finally, just one thing about coaching. this is the kind of thing i like to point out and sometimes make a thread about in the nfl forum. late in the GB game, GB has the lead and is trying to run out the clock. it's 1st and 10 but they need a first down to end the game for certain. rodgers does his thing where he gets the defense to jump offsides and he has a free play. he throws it downfield, incomplete but there's another penalty on seattle. i think the second one was a 10 yard penalty (i don't recall the details), but it was a better penalty than a defensive offsides and an automatic first down. mccarthy, who's an idiot, takes the traditionally better penalty and gets the yardage and a 1st and 10. then rodgers overrules him and says, no fool, you take the defensive offsides. it's not an automatic first down, but it's first down already and you get a 1st and 5 rather than a 1st and 10 and all they need is a first down to end the game. 5 yards is shorter than 10 yards. and they showed rodgers point to his head, basically telling mccarthy, you have to be smart out here, not a f*cking idiot.
it wasn't a big deal, GB wins either way, but it's things like this that separate the smart coaches from the idiots. and every season, a few of these decisions cost teams big.
so anyway, no play on the thursday system for me, but a play on cincy at -3. if i try to middle out, i'll post.
Tn @ Jax +1.5 slight move here, not enough to get excited about. if it gets to 3, that'll will matter.
i didn't understand TN as a favorite over oakland. oakland has issues but that was a lot to expect TN to keep up with them in week one. TN did pretty well but they need a more balanced offense to keep up with oakland. i do like TN though and think this should be easier. maybe Jax has a great defense, but i doubt it'll be very consistent, at least at this point. and this will be a tougher test than houston. mariota had a great game last season against jax in their first matchup. not as much in the second one but mariota got hurt in the 3rd quarter and cassel took over.
i think jax can be very good if they do what they did last week. significantly limit bortles, run fournette a lot and play good defense. that's a lot easier when you play houston who has no offense and no qb and you can be patient because the other team can't score. but that won't work every week. TN has a good defense and will know exactly what jax plans to do. TN should stack the line and force bortles to throw (who doesn't have one of his top receivers anymore). so, bortles should have to do more.
like last week, Jax's defense should be the key. if they can play very well again, it'll make jax's limited offensive game plan easier to execute. but if TN can run the ball and mariota plays well, jax will have to open things up and it should go lik it often did last season.
basically, i'm obviously not sold on jax after one week against the savage/watson combo. if they are valuing jac to have to win to cover and they are playing a better team, which i think they are at this point, i'll take that..
Cleveland @ Shrimp -7.5 cleveland got a little lucky playing pitt in week one when their best playing was getting back into shape. this, in a couple of respects, will be harder. one, it's on the road. 2, it's a better defense. a huge test for a rookie qb who was 20/30 but for only 222 yards so that tells us the passing game was fairly conservative. crowell did nothing. a short conservative passing game and no running game again this week and cleveland loses 27 - 10.
the shrimp aren't very good. let's remind everyone of that. their offense is terrible. they won't have dalton giving them 5 turnovers every week. they are going to have to score and flacco is going to have to play well to win consistently and to cover big spreads.
this one is almost in the category of: this team should never be giving 7+. so, i'd lean to cleveland based on that alone. my main concern is this defense is for real and cleveland with their rookie qb going on the road might need a couple of beatdowns before they are ready for a game like this.
the spread is right to me. the shrimp can only give so many but the cleveland on the road with a rookie qb against a great defense angle is not an insignificant issue.
Tn @ Jax +1.5 slight move here, not enough to get excited about. if it gets to 3, that'll will matter.
i didn't understand TN as a favorite over oakland. oakland has issues but that was a lot to expect TN to keep up with them in week one. TN did pretty well but they need a more balanced offense to keep up with oakland. i do like TN though and think this should be easier. maybe Jax has a great defense, but i doubt it'll be very consistent, at least at this point. and this will be a tougher test than houston. mariota had a great game last season against jax in their first matchup. not as much in the second one but mariota got hurt in the 3rd quarter and cassel took over.
i think jax can be very good if they do what they did last week. significantly limit bortles, run fournette a lot and play good defense. that's a lot easier when you play houston who has no offense and no qb and you can be patient because the other team can't score. but that won't work every week. TN has a good defense and will know exactly what jax plans to do. TN should stack the line and force bortles to throw (who doesn't have one of his top receivers anymore). so, bortles should have to do more.
like last week, Jax's defense should be the key. if they can play very well again, it'll make jax's limited offensive game plan easier to execute. but if TN can run the ball and mariota plays well, jax will have to open things up and it should go lik it often did last season.
basically, i'm obviously not sold on jax after one week against the savage/watson combo. if they are valuing jac to have to win to cover and they are playing a better team, which i think they are at this point, i'll take that..
Cleveland @ Shrimp -7.5 cleveland got a little lucky playing pitt in week one when their best playing was getting back into shape. this, in a couple of respects, will be harder. one, it's on the road. 2, it's a better defense. a huge test for a rookie qb who was 20/30 but for only 222 yards so that tells us the passing game was fairly conservative. crowell did nothing. a short conservative passing game and no running game again this week and cleveland loses 27 - 10.
the shrimp aren't very good. let's remind everyone of that. their offense is terrible. they won't have dalton giving them 5 turnovers every week. they are going to have to score and flacco is going to have to play well to win consistently and to cover big spreads.
this one is almost in the category of: this team should never be giving 7+. so, i'd lean to cleveland based on that alone. my main concern is this defense is for real and cleveland with their rookie qb going on the road might need a couple of beatdowns before they are ready for a game like this.
the spread is right to me. the shrimp can only give so many but the cleveland on the road with a rookie qb against a great defense angle is not an insignificant issue.
Like all of those. Only early grab I took so far is Chi +7 and a 6pt tease, Phi +11 / Pitt -.5 I
will be looking for Cards 1st half when it comes out, both teams looked
bad last week, but Colts are a whole different level of bad. No clue
how Pagano is still there, much less Tolzien. Even with Johnson gone and
Carson 'Pick' Palmer stinking it up, I dont know if Indy will be able
to capitalize on any turnovers. I dont like the hook on the td spread so
will hope for 4 1st half
Like all of those. Only early grab I took so far is Chi +7 and a 6pt tease, Phi +11 / Pitt -.5 I
will be looking for Cards 1st half when it comes out, both teams looked
bad last week, but Colts are a whole different level of bad. No clue
how Pagano is still there, much less Tolzien. Even with Johnson gone and
Carson 'Pick' Palmer stinking it up, I dont know if Indy will be able
to capitalize on any turnovers. I dont like the hook on the td spread so
will hope for 4 1st half
Buffalo @ Carolina -7.5 both of these teams played shitty teams last week so i didn't watch either game. bet against buffalo but really just because this team has no business giving 9 points to anyone. i saw the line closed at 7.5 so hopefully people who bet against buffalo got a good line. anyway, buffalo struggled to get to a 9 point margin. taylor was fine and mccoy had a good game but the jets are horrible and if the jets defensive back who intercepted taylor didn't run into his own man, the jets probably cover. buffalo's defense did well, but the jets are so bad on offense, it's really hard to draw any conclusions from that. so, i'm going to assume buffalo is terrible until they prove otherwise.
carolina had an odd line last week, only 5 against SF. i think part of that was newton was a question mark since he really didn't play all preseason. he didn't do much on sunday but the carolina gameplan was to run a lot and figure they didn't need to do anything special to win and they were right. so, can't really come away with anything from either team after week one. and i don't have a good read on carolina to begin with so this is one i'll probably avoid.
New England @ New Orleans -- damn, that was a bad pick on NO last night. horrible defense, bad OL, terrible coaching and brees doesn't even have the receivers to run the usual fast paced payton offense. i do think the defense will get better because they have better players than usual, but it'll take time. the offense will always be ok with brees but not necessarily on the road against a very good defense with a banged up OL. so, NO will get a few wins against lesser teams but they do not appear to be a 9-7 team like i thought they could be unless that defense comes together at some point. again, tyou can't get too married to week one but NO looked like the same old horrible, badly coached defense we've seen over and over.
i checked this line on sunday when i was looking and saw it was 4.5 (i'l check again in a minute). i thought thatw as too low even before NO's shitshow last night. i figured everyone would be putting money down on the NE bouceback. i thought it should be 6/6.5 before last night. NE's performance in week one had to be the most surprising. not because they didn't cover, that was a big line, but they looked like sh*t in every respect- brady, the offense, the defense, the coaching, the gameplan. you can't say one good thing about that effort. when was the last you could say that about NE in anything other than a letdown game?
anyway, NE will be fine. but, they seem to have a hard time keeping receivers on the field and they never seem to care about having a running game so that could be an issue at some point. and if they don't get a run defense, they will be in trouble. i'm going to throw this game out for both teams and just assume NE wasn't prepared. i guess it happens. NO should have an easier time scoring on NE than minnesota on the road. NE should be much better. NE should win, but i can see NO getting their points and keeping it close or getting the backdoor cover thjat we here at CD Sports love so much.
ok, so the line is 7 now that's a 2.5 point move since sunday. that's a little excessive. NO should be able to score. but do you want to bet against brady/belichik against a sh*t defense after the worst performance in recent memory? i don't. probably no play.
Buffalo @ Carolina -7.5 both of these teams played shitty teams last week so i didn't watch either game. bet against buffalo but really just because this team has no business giving 9 points to anyone. i saw the line closed at 7.5 so hopefully people who bet against buffalo got a good line. anyway, buffalo struggled to get to a 9 point margin. taylor was fine and mccoy had a good game but the jets are horrible and if the jets defensive back who intercepted taylor didn't run into his own man, the jets probably cover. buffalo's defense did well, but the jets are so bad on offense, it's really hard to draw any conclusions from that. so, i'm going to assume buffalo is terrible until they prove otherwise.
carolina had an odd line last week, only 5 against SF. i think part of that was newton was a question mark since he really didn't play all preseason. he didn't do much on sunday but the carolina gameplan was to run a lot and figure they didn't need to do anything special to win and they were right. so, can't really come away with anything from either team after week one. and i don't have a good read on carolina to begin with so this is one i'll probably avoid.
New England @ New Orleans -- damn, that was a bad pick on NO last night. horrible defense, bad OL, terrible coaching and brees doesn't even have the receivers to run the usual fast paced payton offense. i do think the defense will get better because they have better players than usual, but it'll take time. the offense will always be ok with brees but not necessarily on the road against a very good defense with a banged up OL. so, NO will get a few wins against lesser teams but they do not appear to be a 9-7 team like i thought they could be unless that defense comes together at some point. again, tyou can't get too married to week one but NO looked like the same old horrible, badly coached defense we've seen over and over.
i checked this line on sunday when i was looking and saw it was 4.5 (i'l check again in a minute). i thought thatw as too low even before NO's shitshow last night. i figured everyone would be putting money down on the NE bouceback. i thought it should be 6/6.5 before last night. NE's performance in week one had to be the most surprising. not because they didn't cover, that was a big line, but they looked like sh*t in every respect- brady, the offense, the defense, the coaching, the gameplan. you can't say one good thing about that effort. when was the last you could say that about NE in anything other than a letdown game?
anyway, NE will be fine. but, they seem to have a hard time keeping receivers on the field and they never seem to care about having a running game so that could be an issue at some point. and if they don't get a run defense, they will be in trouble. i'm going to throw this game out for both teams and just assume NE wasn't prepared. i guess it happens. NO should have an easier time scoring on NE than minnesota on the road. NE should be much better. NE should win, but i can see NO getting their points and keeping it close or getting the backdoor cover thjat we here at CD Sports love so much.
ok, so the line is 7 now that's a 2.5 point move since sunday. that's a little excessive. NO should be able to score. but do you want to bet against brady/belichik against a sh*t defense after the worst performance in recent memory? i don't. probably no play.
AZ @ Indy +7.5 indy sucks. we've been saying that for a couple of years. they really suck without luck who doesn't appear to be playing this week. if i were him, i'd milk that injury until management gets some decent players. anyway, to lose that badly to the rams is really bad. it's going to be hard to bet this team until they show something. but then again, everyone will be thinking that so expect some inflated lines. looks like brissett will be starting this week and that could be enough to make indy competitive against some teams. brissett has to be better than tolzien and might be a decent backup.
AZ is ok but palmer is about done. he should not be throwing 3 int's against detroit. add a lost fumble by johnson and AZ loses the turnover battle 4-1 to detroit. yet, they were still winning in the 4th quarter. but now johnson is out and that puts more pressure on palmer. so, you can't take AZ as big road favorite. they might destroy indy but i think you need to see AZ play well before you give a lot of points with them, especially on the road. but can you take indy. AZ has a decent defense. at some point, stafford will put points on you, but can you say that about indy? probably not.
two strong, competing angles. this spread is right to me, but it's too many points to give with AZ. but the colts are horrible. how do you let goff throw for 300+ yards and no int's? no opinion yet.
Philly @ KC -4.5 again, i'm not going to spend much time thinking about KC's win against new england. they looked great but i don't see that happening often. smith's and hunt's numbers were just ridiculous. i still see KC as a 7-8 win team. they did lose berry who is one of the top 3 players on the team, in my opinion and probably their team leader if that means anything.
Philly is a team we said to watch because they are supposed to have top level offensive and defensive lines. cox is a monster and had a field day against washington. he can do that any week. and they shut down washington's running game. i don't know who rob kelley is but washington usually has a pretty solid running game. and then when cousins needs to take the game over, we see what usually happens. philly was solid on offense. wentz was mostly good. i don't like philly's running game. when blount is your leader rusher, that's usually a problem. that guy is slower than shrimp with ankle weights carrying extra large burritos in both hands. they didn't need a running game against washington but probably will this week.
essentially, i like philly and think they are the better team. plus, i was looking for an inflated line after that beating of new england and i think i got it at 4.5. it's still 4.5 so we haven't lost anything with the early bet but no one seems to be jumping on this analysis. 5, 5.5 those ren;t key numbers and this isn't like to see 6 so if you want to bet philly, i'd do it before it moves against you.
AZ @ Indy +7.5 indy sucks. we've been saying that for a couple of years. they really suck without luck who doesn't appear to be playing this week. if i were him, i'd milk that injury until management gets some decent players. anyway, to lose that badly to the rams is really bad. it's going to be hard to bet this team until they show something. but then again, everyone will be thinking that so expect some inflated lines. looks like brissett will be starting this week and that could be enough to make indy competitive against some teams. brissett has to be better than tolzien and might be a decent backup.
AZ is ok but palmer is about done. he should not be throwing 3 int's against detroit. add a lost fumble by johnson and AZ loses the turnover battle 4-1 to detroit. yet, they were still winning in the 4th quarter. but now johnson is out and that puts more pressure on palmer. so, you can't take AZ as big road favorite. they might destroy indy but i think you need to see AZ play well before you give a lot of points with them, especially on the road. but can you take indy. AZ has a decent defense. at some point, stafford will put points on you, but can you say that about indy? probably not.
two strong, competing angles. this spread is right to me, but it's too many points to give with AZ. but the colts are horrible. how do you let goff throw for 300+ yards and no int's? no opinion yet.
Philly @ KC -4.5 again, i'm not going to spend much time thinking about KC's win against new england. they looked great but i don't see that happening often. smith's and hunt's numbers were just ridiculous. i still see KC as a 7-8 win team. they did lose berry who is one of the top 3 players on the team, in my opinion and probably their team leader if that means anything.
Philly is a team we said to watch because they are supposed to have top level offensive and defensive lines. cox is a monster and had a field day against washington. he can do that any week. and they shut down washington's running game. i don't know who rob kelley is but washington usually has a pretty solid running game. and then when cousins needs to take the game over, we see what usually happens. philly was solid on offense. wentz was mostly good. i don't like philly's running game. when blount is your leader rusher, that's usually a problem. that guy is slower than shrimp with ankle weights carrying extra large burritos in both hands. they didn't need a running game against washington but probably will this week.
essentially, i like philly and think they are the better team. plus, i was looking for an inflated line after that beating of new england and i think i got it at 4.5. it's still 4.5 so we haven't lost anything with the early bet but no one seems to be jumping on this analysis. 5, 5.5 those ren;t key numbers and this isn't like to see 6 so if you want to bet philly, i'd do it before it moves against you.
Minn @ Pitt -6 an interesting matchup. this wasn't up on saunda so i
haven't seen the line yet. i'd put it at pitt -4.5. pitt didn't look
great against cleveland but with bell just getting back and pitt
probably assuming thei could mail it in, we didn't see pitt's best
performance. even still, roethlisberger and brown were in top form with
each other and i'd expect bell to get back to normal this week. and as
good as minnesota's defense looked, stopping new orleans at home is not
the same as stopping bell and brown on the road. pitt will score their
24+. the question of course is what can minnesota's offense do.
pitt's defense isn't anything special but they have a way of getting
pressure on a qb. having cameron heyward doesn't hurt. so, we'll see
if minnesota has a real OL like they think they do after last night.
i'm skeptical. bradford is pretty good but not if he's udner pressure
and minnesota's running game is still questionable with cook.
i
see pitt playing much better on offense and probably getting pressure
on bradford which will cause him to have a much harder time than last
night. i think minnesota will be good on defense and will score but i
don't think it will be enough. basically, this will be a much harder
challenge for minnesota. 6.5 is more than i wanted to give against a
good defense. possible play on pitt.
Chicago @ TB nice effort by chicago last week staying close with atlanta practically all game. they actually should have won if their receivers could catch the ball. but it's probably good they didn't. we want the bears to stay under the radar because they have a decent defense and glennon is bad enough so bettors won't respect chicago but good enough to keep games close. chicago was just solid against atlanta. they gave up some big plays to ryan but that happens against atlanta. otherwise, they did well against the running game and were consistent on offense.
TB, of course, got postponed so we don't know what they look lik yet. they were 2.5 dogs to miami so they shouldn't be more than 4 here. TB might have a very good offense but if it isn't in sync yet, chicago could do well on defense again and keep this close.
ok, this line is 7. i have no idea why. how does TB go from +2.5 at miami to -7 here? i'll be looking to play chicago again at 7. might put it in soon as i don't see this staying at 7. like last week, that 7 wasn't around towards the weekend.
Minn @ Pitt -6 an interesting matchup. this wasn't up on saunda so i
haven't seen the line yet. i'd put it at pitt -4.5. pitt didn't look
great against cleveland but with bell just getting back and pitt
probably assuming thei could mail it in, we didn't see pitt's best
performance. even still, roethlisberger and brown were in top form with
each other and i'd expect bell to get back to normal this week. and as
good as minnesota's defense looked, stopping new orleans at home is not
the same as stopping bell and brown on the road. pitt will score their
24+. the question of course is what can minnesota's offense do.
pitt's defense isn't anything special but they have a way of getting
pressure on a qb. having cameron heyward doesn't hurt. so, we'll see
if minnesota has a real OL like they think they do after last night.
i'm skeptical. bradford is pretty good but not if he's udner pressure
and minnesota's running game is still questionable with cook.
i
see pitt playing much better on offense and probably getting pressure
on bradford which will cause him to have a much harder time than last
night. i think minnesota will be good on defense and will score but i
don't think it will be enough. basically, this will be a much harder
challenge for minnesota. 6.5 is more than i wanted to give against a
good defense. possible play on pitt.
Chicago @ TB nice effort by chicago last week staying close with atlanta practically all game. they actually should have won if their receivers could catch the ball. but it's probably good they didn't. we want the bears to stay under the radar because they have a decent defense and glennon is bad enough so bettors won't respect chicago but good enough to keep games close. chicago was just solid against atlanta. they gave up some big plays to ryan but that happens against atlanta. otherwise, they did well against the running game and were consistent on offense.
TB, of course, got postponed so we don't know what they look lik yet. they were 2.5 dogs to miami so they shouldn't be more than 4 here. TB might have a very good offense but if it isn't in sync yet, chicago could do well on defense again and keep this close.
ok, this line is 7. i have no idea why. how does TB go from +2.5 at miami to -7 here? i'll be looking to play chicago again at 7. might put it in soon as i don't see this staying at 7. like last week, that 7 wasn't around towards the weekend.
Miami @ San Diego -4.5 who's f*cking idea was it to have two MNF games in week one? anyway, the chargers got off to a bad start but finally got their sh*t together and finished well and got the cover for people who got on them early and got the 3.5. like TB, of course miami got an unscheduled bye so we don't know what to expect from them, other than the fact that this team has some serious flaws and cutler is so inconsistent.
the chargers had a tough start to the season. denver won't be that good but it's still a very good defense and a tough place to start the season on the road. this one should be easier. the chargers showed that they have the talent some of us are expecting in the second half. denver can deal with it because they have a very good defense but i'm not sure what miami has to stop them. miami has been moved around adn got up for a game that didn't happen and then had to fly out to the west coast to play a better team off a tough loss. i don't love that situation for miami. i'd say san diego should be 5.5/6. vegas has it at 4.5. not much of a difference. possible play on the chargers.
NYJ @ Oakland -14 the jets did next to nothing at buffalo and i don't think buffalo's defense is very good. oakland's defense is terrible, but they do have a few stars that can make a difference here. one point about oakland. i watched most of their game against TN. oakland has a very well coached offensive scheme, particularly their passing game. they might have the worst third down defense in the league. if that doesn't get better, they won't go very far this season despite having a great offense. it shouldn't matter this week. oakland can score as much as they want and the jets won't be able to keep up no matter how bad oakland's defense is. and mack should be able to cause some trouble with no pressure to make mistakes.
we never advocate taking double digit spreads. i think the last time i took one was seattle as a huge favorite over tampe and seattle lost 6-2. maybe i had the seattle team total over. anyway, i hate big favorites. but oakland should be able to name the score here. 14 is a fair spread.
Miami @ San Diego -4.5 who's f*cking idea was it to have two MNF games in week one? anyway, the chargers got off to a bad start but finally got their sh*t together and finished well and got the cover for people who got on them early and got the 3.5. like TB, of course miami got an unscheduled bye so we don't know what to expect from them, other than the fact that this team has some serious flaws and cutler is so inconsistent.
the chargers had a tough start to the season. denver won't be that good but it's still a very good defense and a tough place to start the season on the road. this one should be easier. the chargers showed that they have the talent some of us are expecting in the second half. denver can deal with it because they have a very good defense but i'm not sure what miami has to stop them. miami has been moved around adn got up for a game that didn't happen and then had to fly out to the west coast to play a better team off a tough loss. i don't love that situation for miami. i'd say san diego should be 5.5/6. vegas has it at 4.5. not much of a difference. possible play on the chargers.
NYJ @ Oakland -14 the jets did next to nothing at buffalo and i don't think buffalo's defense is very good. oakland's defense is terrible, but they do have a few stars that can make a difference here. one point about oakland. i watched most of their game against TN. oakland has a very well coached offensive scheme, particularly their passing game. they might have the worst third down defense in the league. if that doesn't get better, they won't go very far this season despite having a great offense. it shouldn't matter this week. oakland can score as much as they want and the jets won't be able to keep up no matter how bad oakland's defense is. and mack should be able to cause some trouble with no pressure to make mistakes.
we never advocate taking double digit spreads. i think the last time i took one was seattle as a huge favorite over tampe and seattle lost 6-2. maybe i had the seattle team total over. anyway, i hate big favorites. but oakland should be able to name the score here. 14 is a fair spread.
Washington @ Rams -- as i said, i might have gotten carried away with the early bets. this is the most uncharacteristic of my bets. but, it's hard to see the rams as a 3 point favorite over a team that has some talent. again, we don't want to focus on last year too much but washington had twice as many wins as the rams last season including some pretty good road wins. the rams usally have one or two good wins in theiur division and then can't beat anyone good. washington got beat up by philly last week but philly might be quite good. the rams played very possibly the worst team in the league.
basically, i think washington is the better team and last week's games don't really change must for me. looks like this is down to 2.5 but 3 should be available at some places. washington isn't a team i like but i made this bet because i felt 3, being a key number, was an overreaction.
Dallas @ Denver +2 seems like denver gets that late MNF home game every season and that's always a tough place for anyone to start the season. they beat luck and the colts at home in 2014, they beat the shrimp in 2015, they beat post super bowl carolina last year and a good chargers team this year. so they are good at that opening game but i don't think they are very good overall this season. siemien might be a little better, decent running game and very good defense, at least parts of it, but i expect them to be in the bottom half of their division.
they can certainly beat dallas if they can garbage down the run. they did pretty well against gordon st night after the first half. dallas looked good against NYG but playing on the road against a very good defense could be more difficult. the giants didn't look like they knew what they were doing on offense with beckham out. anyway, i'd give dallas the edge because i just don't think denver will be very good after coming down from opening night at home. they can win any game with their defense if siemien plays pretty well like last night. but, on average, i think they will look more like they did in the second half rather than the first. this isn't a terrible matchup for denver, but they are more of a pass defense and sack defense than a stop the run defense. dallas is the better team and you might see a letdown for denver or just them playing more like the 7 win team they should be. lean to dallas. at 2. i thought it would be 3.
Washington @ Rams -- as i said, i might have gotten carried away with the early bets. this is the most uncharacteristic of my bets. but, it's hard to see the rams as a 3 point favorite over a team that has some talent. again, we don't want to focus on last year too much but washington had twice as many wins as the rams last season including some pretty good road wins. the rams usally have one or two good wins in theiur division and then can't beat anyone good. washington got beat up by philly last week but philly might be quite good. the rams played very possibly the worst team in the league.
basically, i think washington is the better team and last week's games don't really change must for me. looks like this is down to 2.5 but 3 should be available at some places. washington isn't a team i like but i made this bet because i felt 3, being a key number, was an overreaction.
Dallas @ Denver +2 seems like denver gets that late MNF home game every season and that's always a tough place for anyone to start the season. they beat luck and the colts at home in 2014, they beat the shrimp in 2015, they beat post super bowl carolina last year and a good chargers team this year. so they are good at that opening game but i don't think they are very good overall this season. siemien might be a little better, decent running game and very good defense, at least parts of it, but i expect them to be in the bottom half of their division.
they can certainly beat dallas if they can garbage down the run. they did pretty well against gordon st night after the first half. dallas looked good against NYG but playing on the road against a very good defense could be more difficult. the giants didn't look like they knew what they were doing on offense with beckham out. anyway, i'd give dallas the edge because i just don't think denver will be very good after coming down from opening night at home. they can win any game with their defense if siemien plays pretty well like last night. but, on average, i think they will look more like they did in the second half rather than the first. this isn't a terrible matchup for denver, but they are more of a pass defense and sack defense than a stop the run defense. dallas is the better team and you might see a letdown for denver or just them playing more like the 7 win team they should be. lean to dallas. at 2. i thought it would be 3.
San Francisco @ Seattle -13.5 i don't think SF is as bad as they were last year. hyde is good until he gets injured. hoyer is pretty bad but can play a conservative game if they are in that kind of game. the team drafted some very good defensive players recently so they might get a decent defense at this point. so, they'll surprise people and conver some games this season. but they are still pretty bad and pretty young.
seattle looked like the same tea, they've been. great defense (although you can only keep rodgers down for so long) and questionable offense because the OL is so bad. and no one to run the ball. i guess rawls is playing this week but i'm not sure that makes a huge difference. seattle should win their division because their defense is great and the offense is good enough against a lot of teams. but they are still majorly flawed and will struggle against some teams.
13.5 seems a little high here. how bad are that OL and running game? you can't give double digit spreads with teams that have those issues. you can't be quick to take SF either. seattle could completely shut SF down and seattle will be able to get into the 20's or more agaisnt SF if their defense dominates and limits SF possessions and affects field position. remember, the same thing happened last season. seattle's OL was a disaster and they put up 12 and 3 against miami and the rams (neither had great defenses) and then they were huge favorites against SF and won 37-18. i can see this going either way. i'd lean to SF because seattle's problems are real and giving double digits spreads with a team like that is a loser over time.
Gb @ Atl -2.5 took this at 2 because i felt this should be 3/3.5. i think two is an overreaction to Atl struggling against chicago and GB beating seattle which is more name than talent right now. Atlanta at home is a 30-40 point offense. i'm not sure GB's defense can do much to change that. of course GB can score and they have the better QB but rodgers has a lot less to work with and they haven't been as good on the road. it's as simple as that for me. similar defenses. Atlanta has a better offense and is at home. 2 doesn't seem right to me. the line has only moved to 2.5 which doesn't mean much.
Detroit @ NYG -3.5 detroit needed 4 turnovers to finally pull ahead of AZ in the 4th quarter at home. that's not great. they relied on the passing game too much and couldn't run the ball. the giants have a good rush defense so they'll probably play the same kind of game this week. the giants were a mess. no running game and not much of a passing gameplan without beckham. for me, whether beckham plays is very important for this one. similar offenses but the giants will be much better with beckham for obvious reasons. the giants have the better defense and are at home. if he plays, this should be -5 or so. it's 3.5 now so that's a fair line. with beckham, i'd lean to the giants.
San Francisco @ Seattle -13.5 i don't think SF is as bad as they were last year. hyde is good until he gets injured. hoyer is pretty bad but can play a conservative game if they are in that kind of game. the team drafted some very good defensive players recently so they might get a decent defense at this point. so, they'll surprise people and conver some games this season. but they are still pretty bad and pretty young.
seattle looked like the same tea, they've been. great defense (although you can only keep rodgers down for so long) and questionable offense because the OL is so bad. and no one to run the ball. i guess rawls is playing this week but i'm not sure that makes a huge difference. seattle should win their division because their defense is great and the offense is good enough against a lot of teams. but they are still majorly flawed and will struggle against some teams.
13.5 seems a little high here. how bad are that OL and running game? you can't give double digit spreads with teams that have those issues. you can't be quick to take SF either. seattle could completely shut SF down and seattle will be able to get into the 20's or more agaisnt SF if their defense dominates and limits SF possessions and affects field position. remember, the same thing happened last season. seattle's OL was a disaster and they put up 12 and 3 against miami and the rams (neither had great defenses) and then they were huge favorites against SF and won 37-18. i can see this going either way. i'd lean to SF because seattle's problems are real and giving double digits spreads with a team like that is a loser over time.
Gb @ Atl -2.5 took this at 2 because i felt this should be 3/3.5. i think two is an overreaction to Atl struggling against chicago and GB beating seattle which is more name than talent right now. Atlanta at home is a 30-40 point offense. i'm not sure GB's defense can do much to change that. of course GB can score and they have the better QB but rodgers has a lot less to work with and they haven't been as good on the road. it's as simple as that for me. similar defenses. Atlanta has a better offense and is at home. 2 doesn't seem right to me. the line has only moved to 2.5 which doesn't mean much.
Detroit @ NYG -3.5 detroit needed 4 turnovers to finally pull ahead of AZ in the 4th quarter at home. that's not great. they relied on the passing game too much and couldn't run the ball. the giants have a good rush defense so they'll probably play the same kind of game this week. the giants were a mess. no running game and not much of a passing gameplan without beckham. for me, whether beckham plays is very important for this one. similar offenses but the giants will be much better with beckham for obvious reasons. the giants have the better defense and are at home. if he plays, this should be -5 or so. it's 3.5 now so that's a fair line. with beckham, i'd lean to the giants.
i think that's everyone. to recap, here are the plays that are in. lines have moved on 4 of them and are the same on one but only one big move so still worth looking at..
Cincy -3 Philly +4.5 TN even Atl -2 Washington +3
i like a lot of these games. it's going to be a struggle to pare these down. chicago, pitt and SD all look good, among a few others.
i think that's everyone. to recap, here are the plays that are in. lines have moved on 4 of them and are the same on one but only one big move so still worth looking at..
Cincy -3 Philly +4.5 TN even Atl -2 Washington +3
i like a lot of these games. it's going to be a struggle to pare these down. chicago, pitt and SD all look good, among a few others.
Like all of those. Only early grab I took so far is Chi +7 and a 6pt tease, Phi +11 / Pitt -.5 I
will be looking for Cards 1st half when it comes out, both teams looked
bad last week, but Colts are a whole different level of bad. No clue
how Pagano is still there, much less Tolzien. Even with Johnson gone and
Carson 'Pick' Palmer stinking it up, I dont know if Indy will be able
to capitalize on any turnovers. I dont like the hook on the td spread so
will hope for 4 1st half
i think we're on the smae page again. i probably won't play AZ/Indy, at least it's too far down the list and the list is longer than it should be so i probably won't get to it. i do like chicago and pitt. that chicago line is odd. i just don't see how TB goes from an underdog in miami to 7 point favorites. i guess chicago gets no respect. i don't see how that stays at 7. might have to bet it just to lock in that number.
Like all of those. Only early grab I took so far is Chi +7 and a 6pt tease, Phi +11 / Pitt -.5 I
will be looking for Cards 1st half when it comes out, both teams looked
bad last week, but Colts are a whole different level of bad. No clue
how Pagano is still there, much less Tolzien. Even with Johnson gone and
Carson 'Pick' Palmer stinking it up, I dont know if Indy will be able
to capitalize on any turnovers. I dont like the hook on the td spread so
will hope for 4 1st half
i think we're on the smae page again. i probably won't play AZ/Indy, at least it's too far down the list and the list is longer than it should be so i probably won't get to it. i do like chicago and pitt. that chicago line is odd. i just don't see how TB goes from an underdog in miami to 7 point favorites. i guess chicago gets no respect. i don't see how that stays at 7. might have to bet it just to lock in that number.
If Philly had opened last week in KC my guess is it would have been 3 ( probably bet up ta 3') so for it to be at 4' now i would say is indeed an over reaction.Now we know Eagles are tough but Washington was in that game until the last turnover with just a couple minutes left. I dont think Chiefs will turn it over 4 times and their secondary is at least a tad better than Wash. I wanna jump on the + but think Chiefs can pull out a 6 - 9, 10 pt victory.
If Philly had opened last week in KC my guess is it would have been 3 ( probably bet up ta 3') so for it to be at 4' now i would say is indeed an over reaction.Now we know Eagles are tough but Washington was in that game until the last turnover with just a couple minutes left. I dont think Chiefs will turn it over 4 times and their secondary is at least a tad better than Wash. I wanna jump on the + but think Chiefs can pull out a 6 - 9, 10 pt victory.
I'll start with the Bears +7 at Tampa. Chicago can play a little football. Tampa is not in a good position here.
the only thing holding me back is i don't get the line. i really didn't get Cincy -2.5 last week. i kind of get this one. people think TB is going to be good from day one because they added some nice free agents and had a good draft. and no one likes chicago. but 7 seems high. it doesn't appear to be moving now, so i'll wait (and probably pay -125 or so again on friday ).
I'll start with the Bears +7 at Tampa. Chicago can play a little football. Tampa is not in a good position here.
the only thing holding me back is i don't get the line. i really didn't get Cincy -2.5 last week. i kind of get this one. people think TB is going to be good from day one because they added some nice free agents and had a good draft. and no one likes chicago. but 7 seems high. it doesn't appear to be moving now, so i'll wait (and probably pay -125 or so again on friday ).
Cincy -6.5 this will get too high if it keeps going. might already be there. have to consider a middle if you got it at 3.
TN -2.5 really only worth mentioning if it gets to 3
Shrimp -8.5 probably should come up with a number at which the shrimp become autofades. let's say -3.
NE -6.5/7 not sure where this opened but i know it was 4.5 when i looked on monday before the saints game. a big move and it's getting too big, although 4.5 was too low.
KC -5.5 we have our first early bet moving against us although 5 and 5.5 are generally meaningless. if this goes to 6, we definitely made a mistake. still like philly at 4 or better.
Pitt -5.5 it's not clear from my writeup but this was a solid 6.5 yesterday. i didn't bet it early because i could see people getting excited about minnesota. nice to get this under 6. i'm still waiting just because i have too many plays written down.
Cincy -6.5 this will get too high if it keeps going. might already be there. have to consider a middle if you got it at 3.
TN -2.5 really only worth mentioning if it gets to 3
Shrimp -8.5 probably should come up with a number at which the shrimp become autofades. let's say -3.
NE -6.5/7 not sure where this opened but i know it was 4.5 when i looked on monday before the saints game. a big move and it's getting too big, although 4.5 was too low.
KC -5.5 we have our first early bet moving against us although 5 and 5.5 are generally meaningless. if this goes to 6, we definitely made a mistake. still like philly at 4 or better.
Pitt -5.5 it's not clear from my writeup but this was a solid 6.5 yesterday. i didn't bet it early because i could see people getting excited about minnesota. nice to get this under 6. i'm still waiting just because i have too many plays written down.
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