2017 Record: 25-26
The pick:
Clippers +5.5 over Jazz
This is the good, the bad and the ugly from the perspective of a Clippers backer.
First,
The Ugly
1. The Clippers cannot guard Hayward or Johnson, try as they might. Iso-Joe cannot be stopped at the moment. We can only hope some of his shots, which are prayers, do not fall. I cannot even make that call as to whether they will because he's been brilliant.
Now this is scary: Haward who was still recovering from his tainted avocado sandwich, dehydrated and tired according to local press, was 9-16 for 24 points. What can he do when healthy. Well we saw in Game 3 when he went for 21 in the first quarter. Aside of the time he's been sick, he's been unstoppable.
This is truly the ugly. If MAJOR adjustments are not made on these two players, the Clippers will lose. And I don't know what adjustments can be made. That is why Doc rushed his son back to play (his son is a good defender regardless of your low opinion of him). No change. Joe and Hayward killed them.
2. The wings are too small and the Utah's ball movement is superb.
Utah is swinging the ball around the perimeter to perfection. They are just missing shots.
I really hope Doc addresses the defense in this area because I couldn't even keep count of how many open shots (and worse 3's) Utah blew. And they were wide open. Of course, they hit many of them too which gave them the win.
I just look at this Clipper team without Blake and keep thinking "They look like Munchkins out there". Paul, JJ, Crawford, and ancient Pierce (god help us), Felton. Tiny, tiny, tiny. They have no size and this is part of the problem guarding JJ and Hayward. You have to live with what you have here. No adjustments. Just please shore up the rotations on the perimeter.
The Bad
3. Utah is as slow as molasses.
Utah Runs one of, if not the slowest pace in the NBA taking the most number of shots with under 6 seconds. It reminds you a lot of Wisconsin. If they control the clock and pace, like they did last game, you will lose. They held the Clippers to a eye-popping 43 at the half.
Now this can be attack. Doc HAS to have the Clips control and push the pace here. They clearly are not as talented as the Jazz right now nor are they fully healthy. But there is hope. The Jazz because they milk the clock SO much, make a spread like 5.5 VERY valuable, and when their shots don't fall, the Clips can have significant runs scoring lightening fast on breaks (8-0 run in the 4th and a 7-0 run to open the game). This can be exploited. Doc has had TWO FULL GAMES of tape to adjust. He'll be on his third to attack this area.
4. The veteran presence on Utah is bothersome.
I hate that Johnson, Hill and Diaw have significant (and championship) playoff experience. It just opened my eyes last game because for as young and 'inexperienced' Utah as a team is in the playoffs in recent years, to these three on their rosters, the first round of the playoffs is a ho-hum experience. That is BAD for Clippers backers because it give Utah great balance psyche-wise in a spot like this.
Now for where our bet resides,
The Good
5. This is a significant spread. These games have been decided by 2,8,7, and 5 and 4 for an average margin of victory of less than 5.2.
Scal, that's right at 5.5 right? No.
Not in a do or die game. You can certainly shrink up that margin in theory in a do or die so not only is the average margin of victory less than 5.5 and you get a full 5.5, the Clips 'all-hands-on-deck" pressure should make it even closer, even in a loss.
6. You have to KILL the Clips
Yes Blake is gone but remember, if this team loses in the first round they could be disbanded. That is a lot to swallow as a Clippers player. Redik and Blake may go and you have to give Paul $200 million? Really. He'll earn his paycheck tomorrow. He knows what's at stake. And all the fringe players (Felton, Rivers, Speights may be jettisoned) making them leave blood on the floor as well.
You get a very special thing when you back a high profile team in an end of an era spot like this one for the Clips. That should be enough with the insurance of these points.
7. The Refs.
We all know it. The NBA LOVES game 7's folks. How do we know? In a must win for the Clips (because heading to Utah in the altitude in a historically tough city to win in is a bad thing), the refs granted 29 FT attempts to 16 for the Jazz, in a game the Jazz controlled the paint in!
We know what they were doing. It's not a conspiracy. It's a profitable venture to blow the whistle and extend the series for the team that is at a disadvantage, and the Clippers clearly are. So if we can get some key whistles again, we can get a win or get inside this number. Forget about what I said about the Bucks and the refs a few posts ago. This is the Clippers. This is Chris Paul. They matter. The Bucks will one day but not too much right now. We may be seeing an end of en era here so any help from the refs is more than welcome and to be expected.
When the NBA WANTS you in a game 7, you usually get a game 7, AND we get points! Utah will have to play a nearly flawless game to KILL the Clips and that is hard sell when the Clips are in a spot where they almost certainly shouldn't throw in the towel.
We don't need a win. 5.5 is very valuable. Do I wish it was 6 or 7? Yes. But 5.5 isn't chopped liver in a do or die game. I'll take it all with the less talented injured but leave the canvas bloody mentality (with an assist from the refs).