Thanksgiving Day Plays
Thursday, November 27, 12:30 PM, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: The early game on Turkey Day finds us gearing up for a battle between the Lions and the Bears. Traditionally, I like the home team in the first matchup of the holiday games. Lets look at a couple of things here. The Bears are coming in on a 2 game winning streak, but those wins are against weak competition. They were lucky to survive against TB last week as they scored all 21 of their points in the 3rd quarter. They just don't have their air-tight defense they've been used to in years past that has made them so tough. Meanwhile, the Lions defense is pretty good, but what was supposed to be their strong point in their offense, has not been impressive to this point. If they start clicking, and this could very well be the game that jump starts their offense, then they'll be way better than average on both sides of the ball. That could keep them from sliding into a 3 game losing streak. I think they finally find a way to hang a couple of TD's on the board in this game instead of settling for all them FG's. Something tells me that both Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson come up big in this one. Stafford has got to break out of his interception throwing funk and I feel like he has another 300+ yard passing game with a couple of TD's at home here. The Bears have been embarrassed in their last 2 road games against teams with a winning record and now they have to face a team, which granted hasn't looked up to par thus far, still leads the NFL only allowing around 17 points per contest. The Bears give up on average over 300 yards per game and they may be missing key players on the defensive side of the ball in CB Kyle Fuller and LB Lance Briggs. I think QB Jay Cutler continues his struggles as he's committed 10 turnovers in the last 5 games and the Bears as a whole have been outscored 41-0 in the 1st quarter over the last 6 games! Don't get me wrong, I think Forte will still be a beast to deal with, but I just don't think the team as a whole will have what it takes to come away with the W in this one. I'll take the home chalk Detroit Lions -7.
Thursday, November 27, 4:30 PM, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: This is the first of two evenly matched teams record-wise for the evening. Both the Eagles and Cowboys are coming in with 8-3 records and will be slugging it out for sole possession of the NFC East. The Eagles have dropped 3 of their last 4 road games but have won 3 of their last 4 in Dallas. Sanchez doesn't look too bad filling in for the injured Nick Foles at the QB position. Against the Titans last week, he had his third straight 300 yard passing game and LeSean McCoy ran for 130 yards on his own. On the other side for Dallas, Tony Romo has stepped it up as well. He has thrown for 7 TD's with no INT's over his last 2 games. The Boys are on a 2 game losing streak at home so they'll be hungry for a win. Dallas also has a RB that is doing very well in DeMarco Murray. Granted the Eagles have been vulnerable through the air allowing 266 yards per contest in that category and ranking 30th in the league, but Dallas hasn't exactly been what you call "stout" in that department either. They've allowed over 278 yards through the air on average spanning across their last 4 games. Plus they've allowed on average 160 rushing yards in their past 2 games. Romo will have to contend with the play of the Eagles linebacker, Connor Barwin. He's tied for 2nd in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Sanchez is averaging over 328 passing yards per game since taking over for Foles but you have to take into account that Dallas has an interception in each of their last 4 games so he'll have to be particularly careful with his throwing decisions in this one. Philadelphia has been one of the top scoring offenses in the league this year averaging over 31 points per game and Darren Sproles averages 6.4 yards per carry when rushing. The Eagles know that stopping Murray is a MUST since he is having a monster year so expect them to put forth the extra effort to slow him down. I know this won't be the conventional pick but give me the Philadelphia Eagles +3.
Thursday, November 27, 8:30 PM, Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: The night game has a battle of two, 7-4 teams, both in a playoff push, facing off. The Seahawks have lost 6 consecutive games to the 49ers in San Francisco. Look for Colin Kaepernick and the rest of this 49ers bunch to have revenge on their minds in this game as they were beat in last years NFC title game by a tipped pass intended for Crabtree in the end zone that turned into an interception that ended the game and their hopes of getting to the Super Bowl. Both teams boast pretty good defenses. Seattle's defense allows about 297 yards per game while SanFrans defense allows 300. Tit for tat in that department. The 49ers squeaked past the Washington Redskins last week 17-13 while Seattle beat up on Arizona 19-3. Seattle may be in the heads of the 49ers as well by winning 3 of their last 4 meetings and covering the spread in each of those games and covering 6 straight in the series between the two teams. I look for Sherman to match up with Boldin all night and keep him in check as I feel he is a bigger threat than Crabtree here. The Seahawks have been very sound on the defensive side of the ball in recent past weeks only allowing 88 rushing yards per game and about 208 passing yards per game. That's 6th and 3rd ranking in the NFL respectively in those categories. Wilson has been pretty efficient with his passes and making the key throws when he's had to. I think the Seattle zone-based defense will prevail in this one and since Gore hasn't been running all that great the past couple of games, I'll take the Seahawks in this defensive battle. They only allow 19.8 points per game on average and Wilson has been pretty responsible with the ball throwing for over 2,200 yards with 14 TD's against only 5 picks. Lynch has added another 9 TD's with his legs. Wilson has been able to move his offense pretty effectively with his legs this season totally 644 rushing yards himself. I understand that this Seattle team isn't as tough on the road as they are at home, but something tells me that they stand up to the test here. Seattle Seahawks +1.
Yes I know I'm going to get bashed for these plays and I know they're not going to be the "popular" picks. But, they are what I'm playing. BOL everyone and I hope everybody has a great and wonderful Thanksgiving!
Just a Reminder:
*Dec. 28 - Regular season ends.
*Jan. 3-4, 2015 - Wild-card playoffs.
*Jan. 10-11 - Divisional playoffs.
*Jan. 18 - Conference championships.
*Jan. 25 - Pro Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.
*Feb. 1 - Super Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.