Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-65-5, 60.8% ATS):
This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in
nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us
using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have
had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added
time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have
some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifier: Dallas -3.
Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-100-5, 61.8% ATS):
It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great
fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to
adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road
game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have
over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and
this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a
loss. Qualifier: Detroit +7.
Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-146-6, 58.2% ATS):
This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming
off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which
lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the
foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the
team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Cincinnati +1 and
Tampa Bay +5.
Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (86-59-5, 59.3% ATS):
This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do
not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their
next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often
leading to added line value. Qualifier:Philadelphia -11.
Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (101-65-5, 60.8% ATS):
This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in
nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us
using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have
had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added
time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have
some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifier: Dallas -3.
Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-100-5, 61.8% ATS):
It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great
fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to
adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road
game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have
over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and
this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a
loss. Qualifier: Detroit +7.
Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-146-6, 58.2% ATS):
This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming
off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which
lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the
foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the
team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Cincinnati +1 and
Tampa Bay +5.
Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (86-59-5, 59.3% ATS):
This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do
not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their
next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often
leading to added line value. Qualifier:Philadelphia -11.
Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (88-61-4, 58.9% ATS):
The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous
angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back
from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just
played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the
previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifiers: Philadelphia -11
and Washington +9.
Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (95-66-5, 59.0% ATS):
This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams
that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams
on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the
team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4
percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before
presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been
profitable at 43-36-4, 54.4 percent ATS. Qualifiers: New York Giants +3
and San Diego -4.
Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (88-61-4, 58.9% ATS):
The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous
angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back
from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just
played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the
previous margin ATS instead of straight up. Qualifiers: Philadelphia -11
and Washington +9.
Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (95-66-5, 59.0% ATS):
This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams
that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams
on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the
team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4
percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before
presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been
profitable at 43-36-4, 54.4 percent ATS. Qualifiers: New York Giants +3
and San Diego -4.
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-10 SU and ATS in the first of back-to-back home games versus a winning opponent.
The Baltimore Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS on Monday Nights versus NFC opponents.
Dallas is 0-6 SU and ATS when favored versus a division opponents
playing with triple revenge-exact (from losses in last three meetings),
and also 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on Sunday nights versus an opponent off a
pair of SU losses.
The Houston Texans are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-11 ATS as favorites in the first of back-to-back division games.
The New York Giants are 8-1 SU and ATS on Sunday nights off a pair of SU losses.
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-10 SU and ATS in the first of back-to-back home games versus a winning opponent.
The Baltimore Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS on Monday Nights versus NFC opponents.
Dallas is 0-6 SU and ATS when favored versus a division opponents
playing with triple revenge-exact (from losses in last three meetings),
and also 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on Sunday nights versus an opponent off a
pair of SU losses.
The Houston Texans are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-11 ATS as favorites in the first of back-to-back division games.
The New York Giants are 8-1 SU and ATS on Sunday nights off a pair of SU losses.
Jax is 11-1 ATS road gms with Same season revenge N.E. is 11-1 SU vs NFC North opponents Miami is 38-15 ATS vs AFC West opponents Dall is 12-3 ATS on road off bye N.Or is 6-18 ATS vs AFC North
Jax is 11-1 ATS road gms with Same season revenge N.E. is 11-1 SU vs NFC North opponents Miami is 38-15 ATS vs AFC West opponents Dall is 12-3 ATS on road off bye N.Or is 6-18 ATS vs AFC North
November ATS Team Records Home Teams in November: Indy is 20-32 ATS ( 1-1 this yr.) NYG are 15-32 ATS ( 0-2 this yr.) ................................................................................................................ Road Teams in November ATS Det is 15-28 ATS ( 0-1 this yr.) Cinci is 27-16 ATS ( 1-0 this yr.) ............................................................................................................ Dogs in November Det is 22-39 ATS NYG are 11-31 ATS ( 0-3 this yr.) T.Bay is 37-21 ATS ( 2-1 this yr.) ............................................................................................................ Favorites in Novemger Dall is 41-25 ATS ( 1-1 this yr.) ............................................................................................................ Division in November Dall is 25-15 ATS
November ATS Team Records Home Teams in November: Indy is 20-32 ATS ( 1-1 this yr.) NYG are 15-32 ATS ( 0-2 this yr.) ................................................................................................................ Road Teams in November ATS Det is 15-28 ATS ( 0-1 this yr.) Cinci is 27-16 ATS ( 1-0 this yr.) ............................................................................................................ Dogs in November Det is 22-39 ATS NYG are 11-31 ATS ( 0-3 this yr.) T.Bay is 37-21 ATS ( 2-1 this yr.) ............................................................................................................ Favorites in Novemger Dall is 41-25 ATS ( 1-1 this yr.) ............................................................................................................ Division in November Dall is 25-15 ATS
Coach Smith as a favorite: 37-25 ATS in his coaching career
Atlanta was outgained by Carolina (Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games)
Falcons outscored 91 to 21 in 4th quarter (last eight games)
Falcons defense: #32 (403 yards – only team above 400)
The SU winner of the last 38 Cleveland games has covered 33 times (spread has mattered only five times)
Hoyer completed just 20 passes on 50 attempts last week
First three games C. Mack out: Browns had 83 attempts for 158 yards (1.9 per attempt) Fourth game: 170 rushing on 52 attempts vs. Bengals (3.3 yards per attempt) Sunday: Browns rushed for only 58 yards on 24 carries (2.4 ypc)
Coach Smith as a favorite: 37-25 ATS in his coaching career
Atlanta was outgained by Carolina (Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games)
Falcons outscored 91 to 21 in 4th quarter (last eight games)
Falcons defense: #32 (403 yards – only team above 400)
The SU winner of the last 38 Cleveland games has covered 33 times (spread has mattered only five times)
Hoyer completed just 20 passes on 50 attempts last week
First three games C. Mack out: Browns had 83 attempts for 158 yards (1.9 per attempt) Fourth game: 170 rushing on 52 attempts vs. Bengals (3.3 yards per attempt) Sunday: Browns rushed for only 58 yards on 24 carries (2.4 ypc)
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
It’s also supposed to be rainy in Seattle, and that’s also caused a
small but significant dip in the total. An opener of 42 is down to 41.
42 is a key number for totals, 6 touchdowns. An early tug-of-war is
shaping up a point higher than in the game we just discussed. Seattle
-6.5 is getting support, but so is Arizona +7. The public has backed off
auto-betting Seattle at home because this just isn’t the same team this
year. Sharps have been fairly aggressive with Arizona when the
situations were right. Hard to say where this will settle, but Arizona
money(a LOT of money) is hoping the public gives them +7 or better on
game day.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Word of Philip Rivers playing with an injury that’s worse than had been
reported has helped drop this number from San Diego -6 to San Diego -5.
The offense hasn’t shown much of anything in recent weeks…only 13 total
points in the month of November! That’s a 0 in Miami, a bye week, and
then 13 last week vs. Oakland. Sharps were very happy to get the Rams
early at +6, and would fade any game-day rise from squares betting the
Chargers. The Over/Under has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 .
MIAMI AT DENVER:
Denver’s had several home games this season vs. decent teams where the
line has stuck around -7.5. Here, we’re seeing a solid Denver -7. That
suggests that the smartest influences in the market like Miami at
anything higher than the touchdown. Sportsbooks won’t give it to them
unless the public comes in hard on Denver on game day. Complicating
matters, any move to Denver -7.5 would invite teaser play on the Broncos
at -1.5. Note that the current forecast is for very windy
conditions…which might actually favor the stronger arm of Ryan Tannehill
over the fading velocity of Peyton Manning. Sharps have really been in
love with Miami for weeks. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last seven
games…and are just a couple plays away from a 7-0 ATS sweep.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
It’s also supposed to be rainy in Seattle, and that’s also caused a
small but significant dip in the total. An opener of 42 is down to 41.
42 is a key number for totals, 6 touchdowns. An early tug-of-war is
shaping up a point higher than in the game we just discussed. Seattle
-6.5 is getting support, but so is Arizona +7. The public has backed off
auto-betting Seattle at home because this just isn’t the same team this
year. Sharps have been fairly aggressive with Arizona when the
situations were right. Hard to say where this will settle, but Arizona
money(a LOT of money) is hoping the public gives them +7 or better on
game day.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Word of Philip Rivers playing with an injury that’s worse than had been
reported has helped drop this number from San Diego -6 to San Diego -5.
The offense hasn’t shown much of anything in recent weeks…only 13 total
points in the month of November! That’s a 0 in Miami, a bye week, and
then 13 last week vs. Oakland. Sharps were very happy to get the Rams
early at +6, and would fade any game-day rise from squares betting the
Chargers. The Over/Under has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 .
MIAMI AT DENVER:
Denver’s had several home games this season vs. decent teams where the
line has stuck around -7.5. Here, we’re seeing a solid Denver -7. That
suggests that the smartest influences in the market like Miami at
anything higher than the touchdown. Sportsbooks won’t give it to them
unless the public comes in hard on Denver on game day. Complicating
matters, any move to Denver -7.5 would invite teaser play on the Broncos
at -1.5. Note that the current forecast is for very windy
conditions…which might actually favor the stronger arm of Ryan Tannehill
over the fading velocity of Peyton Manning. Sharps have really been in
love with Miami for weeks. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last seven
games…and are just a couple plays away from a 7-0 ATS sweep.
WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much early
interest in this one. It’s been a pretty quiet week because there just
aren’t many games that “need” to be bet early in advance of public
influence. San Francisco looks to be a solid -9. Sharps don’t have much
respect for RGIII as a positive influence on the field. But, they aren’t
lining up to lay a big number with inconsistent San Francisco either.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS (Sunday Night): Strong early support for Dallas at
the opening line of -3. We’re now seeing -3.5. It takes a LOT of money
to move off 3 in the NFL.It’s telling that early money bet the favorite
off the key number, and there wasn’t any buyback on a nationally
televised home underdog. Dallas also had a bye last week to help them
get healthy. New York lost a turnover-filled home game to San Francisco.
It will take more than a half point hook to get dog money interested
here. The public may push the game to four and beyond in the extra
betting hours leading up to the prime time kickoff.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ORLEANS (Monday Night): Another game pushed off the key
number, with New Orleans opening at -3 but now sitting at -3.5 in most
spots. But, in this matchup, there has been some interest on the Ravens
with the hook. If it were “Sharps only” betting this game, I think there
would be a tug-of-war between Saints -3 and Ravens +3.5. But, the
public historically loves betting the Saints at home when they’re cheap
(even if that’s not working out so well this year). So, there’s a chance
that dog bettors might get as much as +4 before kickoff. Depends on how
much squares have to invest Monday after Saturday and Sunday are in the
books.
That's it for this week, I should have a pre Turkey Day report on Wednesday, and as always Good luck to everyone in the Den!!!
WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much early
interest in this one. It’s been a pretty quiet week because there just
aren’t many games that “need” to be bet early in advance of public
influence. San Francisco looks to be a solid -9. Sharps don’t have much
respect for RGIII as a positive influence on the field. But, they aren’t
lining up to lay a big number with inconsistent San Francisco either.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS (Sunday Night): Strong early support for Dallas at
the opening line of -3. We’re now seeing -3.5. It takes a LOT of money
to move off 3 in the NFL.It’s telling that early money bet the favorite
off the key number, and there wasn’t any buyback on a nationally
televised home underdog. Dallas also had a bye last week to help them
get healthy. New York lost a turnover-filled home game to San Francisco.
It will take more than a half point hook to get dog money interested
here. The public may push the game to four and beyond in the extra
betting hours leading up to the prime time kickoff.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ORLEANS (Monday Night): Another game pushed off the key
number, with New Orleans opening at -3 but now sitting at -3.5 in most
spots. But, in this matchup, there has been some interest on the Ravens
with the hook. If it were “Sharps only” betting this game, I think there
would be a tug-of-war between Saints -3 and Ravens +3.5. But, the
public historically loves betting the Saints at home when they’re cheap
(even if that’s not working out so well this year). So, there’s a chance
that dog bettors might get as much as +4 before kickoff. Depends on how
much squares have to invest Monday after Saturday and Sunday are in the
books.
That's it for this week, I should have a pre Turkey Day report on Wednesday, and as always Good luck to everyone in the Den!!!
I do trend analysis as well but I try to break it down to the last 2 or 3 seasons as some of these trends no longer work as the house has factored some of this in.
I do trend analysis as well but I try to break it down to the last 2 or 3 seasons as some of these trends no longer work as the house has factored some of this in.
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