All these offseason headlines and oddsmakers still give them no respect... Hmm..
The renewed Dolphins offense seems to be getting all the headlines lately and I'm not hearing much about the defense. Some say their defensive line will be tops in the NFL with 3rd overall draft pick Dion Jordan on the end. That remains to be seen but I do expect them to be pretty good.
The defensive backfield is another story. They picked up Brent Grimes from Atlanta, he missed 15 games last season with a torn Achilles, and they're getting back Richard Marshall who missed 12 games last year with back problems. So in the 2012 season they played a combined total of 5 games. These two are the projected starters. Behind them is a group of guys looking for their place on the depth chart with very little experience.
Here's just a few of the opposing quarterbacks that they have to deal with this season:
Andrew Luck
Matt Ryan
Drew Brees
Tom Brady (twice)
Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger
Last season, the Phins forced a total of 16 turnovers, tied for 28th in the NFL.
Back to the offense... "This team will go as far as I take it." Ryan Tannehill himself said it best. Last year he threw 12 touchdown passes and turned the ball over 22 times. He's got a few good weapons this year with the additions Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson, and Dustin Keller. Looks nice on paper but Wallace is one dimensional and Keller is injury prone.
They lost star offensive linemen Jake Long to the Rams. Lots of faith in their second year guy Jonathan Martin, who is moving from right tackle to left tackle, to replace Long. What if he struggles with the switch? There will be no pass protection from any of their running backs, who are also very much unproven after letting Reggie Bush go to the Lions. If the pressure starts taking its toll on Tannehill, expect an ugly sophomore slump.
WK 1 @ CLE ??? (This is no gimme. Oddsmakers have Miami favored by 1 point.)
WK 2 @ IND loss
WK 3 vs ATL loss
WK 4 @ NO loss
WK 5 vs BAL loss
WK 6 bye
WK 7 vs BUF win
WK 8 @ NE loss
WK 9 vs CIN ???
WK 10 @ TB ???
WK 11 vs SD ???
WK 12 vs CAR ???
WK 13 @ NYJ win
WK 14 @ PIT loss
WK 15 vs NE loss
WK 16 @ BUF win
WK 17 vs NYJ win
Week 1 can go either way and if it turns out to be a loss, it may get very ugly, very fast. They could be 0-5 going into their bye week. You may also notice that I have them sweeping both BUF and NYJ. That's unlikely.
And don't count on them being bailed out by special teams in any of these games. Kicker Dan Carpenter went 22 for 27 last year, including 2 misses in an OT loss to the Jets. Their newly drafted rookie is waiting in the shadows.
Miami spent a ton of money to bring in all these spotlight guys. If these players don't have the immediate and large impact that they're supposed to have, the Dolphins are looking at 7-9 again, or worse. Would I have bet this at 7.5? Probably.