I have found much recent success betting on totals than teams, and im willing to give u that inside edge on betting totals with 3 golden rules in mind.
Split total based off 100
Most people i find look at totals and say, (assume this game has a home favorite of -4) "hmm the total is 190, thats 95 points apiece"... this is the incorrect way in my mind to look at this total because no game can end as a tie really. instead you should look at this game as "hmm the total is 190, thats 100-90"... when u look at it this way u can easily think of someone scoring 100 and someone having a bad night and not reaching they usual average. so the key is to look for that team most likely to have a bad not and put up the projected numbers and also see which team could score that 100 or not and then from their make an assumption.
Factor in the Spread
when doing this u can look at the numbers and see if that team has a strong defense or weak one, i always compare road/home performance with overall performance. when doing this you can see that teams play better on the road or at home offensively and defensively. a team might average on 90 points on road but overall average 98 and you would think they have a good offense when really they dont. this also works on the defensive side as well.
What does the public think, find why they think that way.
This factors into understanding how most ppl expect the game to play and see is that judgement is realistic or did they pick that just because they fell that way. for instance im picking the thunder and under in tonights game. my reasoning for this is because the thunder play defense on the road better than at home, they offense slightly slacks so i dont see them beating dallas early, while the thunder pick up the intinsitly in the 3rd and 4th. Dallas is struggling offensively still but they defense is still pretty good. thunder defense keeps dallas under 97 and thunder get 103. the public is riding the over because they looking at the thunder scoring 110 on dallas but the thunder will not need 110 to beat dallas, they play enough defense to win with no more than 105.
Well any inquiries about this let me know, and tell me if u like this write up or not, im trying to spread more knowledge but need input from people who are on this forum.
I have found much recent success betting on totals than teams, and im willing to give u that inside edge on betting totals with 3 golden rules in mind.
Split total based off 100
Most people i find look at totals and say, (assume this game has a home favorite of -4) "hmm the total is 190, thats 95 points apiece"... this is the incorrect way in my mind to look at this total because no game can end as a tie really. instead you should look at this game as "hmm the total is 190, thats 100-90"... when u look at it this way u can easily think of someone scoring 100 and someone having a bad night and not reaching they usual average. so the key is to look for that team most likely to have a bad not and put up the projected numbers and also see which team could score that 100 or not and then from their make an assumption.
Factor in the Spread
when doing this u can look at the numbers and see if that team has a strong defense or weak one, i always compare road/home performance with overall performance. when doing this you can see that teams play better on the road or at home offensively and defensively. a team might average on 90 points on road but overall average 98 and you would think they have a good offense when really they dont. this also works on the defensive side as well.
What does the public think, find why they think that way.
This factors into understanding how most ppl expect the game to play and see is that judgement is realistic or did they pick that just because they fell that way. for instance im picking the thunder and under in tonights game. my reasoning for this is because the thunder play defense on the road better than at home, they offense slightly slacks so i dont see them beating dallas early, while the thunder pick up the intinsitly in the 3rd and 4th. Dallas is struggling offensively still but they defense is still pretty good. thunder defense keeps dallas under 97 and thunder get 103. the public is riding the over because they looking at the thunder scoring 110 on dallas but the thunder will not need 110 to beat dallas, they play enough defense to win with no more than 105.
Well any inquiries about this let me know, and tell me if u like this write up or not, im trying to spread more knowledge but need input from people who are on this forum.
why do you like the over in the GS/SAS game? with stephen curry out, i feel like they're not gonna score a lot...klay thompson can score but his shot percentage is not good...but no true point guard with stephen curry out...i feel like if this game was to go over, Spurs would have to score 110+ themselves
why do you like the over in the GS/SAS game? with stephen curry out, i feel like they're not gonna score a lot...klay thompson can score but his shot percentage is not good...but no true point guard with stephen curry out...i feel like if this game was to go over, Spurs would have to score 110+ themselves
why do you like the over in the GS/SAS game? with stephen curry out, i feel like they're not gonna score a lot...klay thompson can score but his shot percentage is not good...but no true point guard with stephen curry out...i feel like if this game was to go over, Spurs would have to score 110+ themselves
i expect the spurs to score 115+ GS has given up 115+ against top western conferences foes this season. Clippers, Denver, and 100+ vs lakers
why do you like the over in the GS/SAS game? with stephen curry out, i feel like they're not gonna score a lot...klay thompson can score but his shot percentage is not good...but no true point guard with stephen curry out...i feel like if this game was to go over, Spurs would have to score 110+ themselves
i expect the spurs to score 115+ GS has given up 115+ against top western conferences foes this season. Clippers, Denver, and 100+ vs lakers
Can you tell me why the toronto game would be going under when Philly has played 15-4 overs at home and given up 98 PPG at home, while toronto scored 95PPG away, and has been shooting lights out
Can you tell me why the toronto game would be going under when Philly has played 15-4 overs at home and given up 98 PPG at home, while toronto scored 95PPG away, and has been shooting lights out
Can you tell me why the toronto game would be going under when Philly has played 15-4 overs at home and given up 98 PPG at home, while toronto scored 95PPG away, and has been shooting lights out
this is a division game and the under is 4-1 in last meeting in philly and under is 6-1 in last meeting, public is pounding the over. in the division they give up 98-96 respectivliy showing me they play d in they division i dont see philly getting to 90 and i see toronto scoring 93 in a win.
Can you tell me why the toronto game would be going under when Philly has played 15-4 overs at home and given up 98 PPG at home, while toronto scored 95PPG away, and has been shooting lights out
this is a division game and the under is 4-1 in last meeting in philly and under is 6-1 in last meeting, public is pounding the over. in the division they give up 98-96 respectivliy showing me they play d in they division i dont see philly getting to 90 and i see toronto scoring 93 in a win.
You do realize last years teams have no barring on this years teams? Also Philly plays absolutely No D and gets worse at home then they do away when i comes to D. I guess we shall see tho
You do realize last years teams have no barring on this years teams? Also Philly plays absolutely No D and gets worse at home then they do away when i comes to D. I guess we shall see tho
Trends are useful tools if they apply to a certain statistical situations. A lot of trends are extremely vague, hence why you can find a trend to support either side of the bet. How do the teams match up? What style of play does each team like to play? How have the teams been performing of late? What statistical data gives me the best chance at finding value in a total? These are the factors that I like to take into consideration when playing totals. Wredskins has a couple of nice statiscal points in his thread regarding the Denver/Washington total tonight. Those are more of the the things that I like to see in order to find value within a certain number. Good luck tonight and always!!
Trends are useful tools if they apply to a certain statistical situations. A lot of trends are extremely vague, hence why you can find a trend to support either side of the bet. How do the teams match up? What style of play does each team like to play? How have the teams been performing of late? What statistical data gives me the best chance at finding value in a total? These are the factors that I like to take into consideration when playing totals. Wredskins has a couple of nice statiscal points in his thread regarding the Denver/Washington total tonight. Those are more of the the things that I like to see in order to find value within a certain number. Good luck tonight and always!!
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