When odds-makers create point spreads, sometimes there is a lot of gambler psychology that is involved in the process. Their job is to trick us, to manipulate us into thinking a certain way, and they're good at their job. Keep in mind that they don't create all point spreads based on psychology, but it's important to spot the times that they do. Last night they gave Marquette 11 points to create the illusion of line value, and a lot of bettors took the bait and gave Marquette a whirl. Today they made Kansas a 12 point favorite to create the illusion of superiority. Common knowledge dictates that Kansas is invincible at home, and that double digit spread just reinforces that idea. A lot of people are thinking "They MUST be way better than Oregon State to be favored by so many, right?" Wrong.
Oregon State +12 5 Units, ML (+635) 3 Units
Kansas is in so much trouble today it's not even funny. Oregon St. is anchored by 4 battle-tested upperclassmen that won't be daunted by playing on the road, even in Kansas. And this isn't last year's Kansas folks. Oregon St. is also one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Kansas has the illusion of being a fantastic rebounding team because of Withey, but they couldn't even out-rebound San Jose State. Oregon State is going to destroy Kansas on the glass today. If you want to bet the farm on a game, take the points, relax and enjoy. If you have the cojones, join me in getting paid on that fat freaking ML today.
Syracuse -7 5 Units
It's rare for me to have two 5 unit plays in a day but I'm feelin it. Syracuse has the advantage over Arkansas in every phase of the game. While Kansas will show that they're over-rated with their ranking, Syracuse will prove they might be under-rated at number 8. They're deep, talented, and have a nice mix of veteran players and young talent. Home court advantage alone won't even come close to making up the mismatch we have here. Syracuse rolls.
Tennessee +7 3 Units
The thing with the Vols is, they're good enough to stay in almost every game they play, but they just can't seem to get over the hump and consistently beat the big dogs. The Vols played 8 ranked teams last season and lost by 6 or more only twice: At Duke and at Kentucky, and we all know there's no shame to losing at last year's Kentucky squad, or even Duke for that matter. All of the Vols starters were on the team last year so I think we'll get more of the same. I like G'Town to win this game by 3-5. Vols cover.
CS Fullerton -4.5 3 Units
Another mismatch that home court can't make up for. Eastern Wash. is bad....real bad. The books can afford to give away this easy winner because let's face it, not many of us will bet the house on CS Fullerton. But they win this one easy and the public gets it right.
Drake +6 3 Units, ML (+215) 2 units
Another upset in the making. Drake pushed Detroit, Cal, and Xavier, all teams that are better than Nevada. Nevada returns their top two scorers from last year but they still lost enough talent to downgrade them a bit from last year's squad. Drake's starters are ALL seniors and juniors, so they're not going to crumble on the road the way a young team might. I like Drake's chances to pull off the win here.
La. Tech +1.5 2 Units
Wrong team is favored here. Georgia St. was a feisty squad last year but they lost a step this year. Line makers are trying to create the illusion of Georgia State being better than they are by making them a slight favorite but don't fall for it. La. Tech is the better team.
Huge card for me today...a lot bigger than I normally go.
Also swinging for the fences with:
ML Parlay Oregon State/Drake/La Tech 1 unit wins 40