Yes. There is value.
I would say the Nate Silver projections are the most accurate. There really is no point in coming up with your own projections.
Any difference between a betable line and his number is value.
Yes. There is value.
I would say the Nate Silver projections are the most accurate. There really is no point in coming up with your own projections.
Any difference between a betable line and his number is value.
86% chance of winning should translate into:
-(100*p)/(1-p) = -(100*0.86)/(1-0.86) = -86/0.14 = -614
So assuming you believe the 86% chance there is definitely still value.
86% chance of winning should translate into:
-(100*p)/(1-p) = -(100*0.86)/(1-0.86) = -86/0.14 = -614
So assuming you believe the 86% chance there is definitely still value.
I'm a sucker...just grabbed romney at +350 for a final time. All these battleground states are highly correlated. Virginia, Pennslyvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa. He who wins 1, takes all but 1 in my opinion. These models that Silver is running are very susceptible to 1-2% moves in turnout from each base.
Vanzack may be right in the end though, the auto bailout may have been the difference. Go figure, I was long GM 7.2 11 post Ch-11 at 25...converted them into stock...2 years later I may be near breakeven now! Can't win on this auto bailout.
I'm a sucker...just grabbed romney at +350 for a final time. All these battleground states are highly correlated. Virginia, Pennslyvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa. He who wins 1, takes all but 1 in my opinion. These models that Silver is running are very susceptible to 1-2% moves in turnout from each base.
Vanzack may be right in the end though, the auto bailout may have been the difference. Go figure, I was long GM 7.2 11 post Ch-11 at 25...converted them into stock...2 years later I may be near breakeven now! Can't win on this auto bailout.
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