I will be keeping track of the following games in the next few days:
Florida State
California
Pitt
Auburn
Southern Methodist
East Carolina
North Carolina
Boston College
Marshall
Colorado
Western Kentucky
Arizona State
Stanford
Mississippi
A few of them will most likely be plays, but its still not worth locking anything in yet. More interested in the proceeding line movement for confirmation before pulling the trigger. Will be back later.
I will be keeping track of the following games in the next few days:
Florida State
California
Pitt
Auburn
Southern Methodist
East Carolina
North Carolina
Boston College
Marshall
Colorado
Western Kentucky
Arizona State
Stanford
Mississippi
A few of them will most likely be plays, but its still not worth locking anything in yet. More interested in the proceeding line movement for confirmation before pulling the trigger. Will be back later.
Best I can get is +11.5 with SMU. Take or do you see it going back up? Thanks
I would suggest scaling in at least a little right now. So, say you wanted to bet $500 on the game, maybe I would bet $200 right now, and see what happens in the near future. But ultimately, before tip off, I would take this game regardless of the spread.
I spoke with a friend of mine, who basically suggested that its not worth backing teams that already moved a couple of points against you, because you are "losing value." Though I obviously can't discredit that statement, the approach that I use is not about "getting the best line possible." It's about being on the same side of a play as those with superior information. If they are betting enough money to move the line against a very heavy publicly-backed team, then I am making the assumption that they dont expect to cover the spread by 1 or 2 points. It has happened where I would lose a pick, but had I got the same number as "sharp money," I would have won -- but that doesnt hapeen very often, and I am comfortable playing the percentages. In other words, I would probably even play it at +10.5.
Hope that makes sense. GL with whatever you decide to do.
Best I can get is +11.5 with SMU. Take or do you see it going back up? Thanks
I would suggest scaling in at least a little right now. So, say you wanted to bet $500 on the game, maybe I would bet $200 right now, and see what happens in the near future. But ultimately, before tip off, I would take this game regardless of the spread.
I spoke with a friend of mine, who basically suggested that its not worth backing teams that already moved a couple of points against you, because you are "losing value." Though I obviously can't discredit that statement, the approach that I use is not about "getting the best line possible." It's about being on the same side of a play as those with superior information. If they are betting enough money to move the line against a very heavy publicly-backed team, then I am making the assumption that they dont expect to cover the spread by 1 or 2 points. It has happened where I would lose a pick, but had I got the same number as "sharp money," I would have won -- but that doesnt hapeen very often, and I am comfortable playing the percentages. In other words, I would probably even play it at +10.5.
Hope that makes sense. GL with whatever you decide to do.
Took +11.5 agree,heavy public fav. getting bet down(11 now at most shops) 1 or 2 pts.hopefully won"t matter. Smart money will prevail. Thanks,good info.
Took +11.5 agree,heavy public fav. getting bet down(11 now at most shops) 1 or 2 pts.hopefully won"t matter. Smart money will prevail. Thanks,good info.
Pitt +10.5 (debating between Tier I/II - will update before tipoff)
Mississippi +10.5 (Tier II)
I dont really care about what i post it as in the future, but for those who read this and havent necessarily locked anything in. BE CAREFUL with Auburn.
Basically, I would just stay away from that game if possible. I don't like the proceeding line movement, and it was my fault for not being more careful about it.
Pitt +10.5 (debating between Tier I/II - will update before tipoff)
Mississippi +10.5 (Tier II)
I dont really care about what i post it as in the future, but for those who read this and havent necessarily locked anything in. BE CAREFUL with Auburn.
Basically, I would just stay away from that game if possible. I don't like the proceeding line movement, and it was my fault for not being more careful about it.
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