November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 63-44, +83.55
March Leans: 42-40
What a really, really, really, weird spot in terms of scheme, pace, what’s happened in the past, and a few more situational spots all gathered up into one. First off, Utah State’s coming off a 1.40 point per possession outing, and a 105 point total against Oakland in just 75 possessions on Sunday. That was their second straight 70 possession game in a row, both coming in the past week, and both coming at home against high-tempo teams who aren’t the greatest defenses in the country. This is a totally different ball game with the defense that Mercer brings to the table tonight. With Mercer, you have a team that’s been extremely lucky to be where they’re at in the present moment. They go on the road for a third straight roady having just beat ODU and Fairfield in those first two meetings. There is one important thing to note here with those victories and that is the fact that they beat an ODU team without it’s main man, and they beat a Fairfield team that didn’t have a PG. They didn’t look all that great in either game, and this is a team that will struggle to score at certain parts of the game b/c the majority of their focus goes to the defensive side. More importantly, they have now played three of the toughest and physical defenses in the country b2b2b before they go into Utah State here. Secondly, anytime I look at an under, the pace is the first thing I always take into account. Neither of these teams want to run, they’re a bit faster than in past years, but this match-up and situation pretty much tells me both teams will try to play their own style. Along those same lines, there are a few situational spots that add some value to the under here that I cannot avoid. For starters, I’ve already hinted on the fact that Utah State’s offense should come back to earth after the 100 point outing. If that isn’t enough to convince me, then the lack of defensive teams they’ve faced over the course of the past few months does. Here are the Defensive Effective FG% rankings of their opponents on the season:
342, 96, 178, 316, 188, 169, 267, 168, 58, 147, 188, 230, 72, 267, 169, 178, 211, 188, 147, 72, 230, 164, 153, 235, 132, 211, 22, 108, 256, 150, 337, 171, 286, 217, and 110.
If you look closely, they have only played four top 100 defenses in the country on the season. And, the best defense they will have faced on the season happens to walk into Utah State tonight. Not only the best defense, but the best defense combined with one of the tallest guard tandems on the country that I expanded on the other day with Mercer. Here is Utah State’s point per possession totals against size at the guard position:
0.96
1.08
1.11
0.89
0.90
0.89
1.11
1.01
1.09
1.00
0.94
0.99
Those are certainly not impressive, and it’s also important to note that over half of these teams where they did not put up impressive #’s were just tall, and don’t have the asset of being able to defend. So, I think Utah State’s in for some trouble offensively tonight. As for Mercer, their offense is a big fan of the jump shot, more-so the three-point shot. They shoot it quite a bit and their a balanced team with quite a few players who can play any spot on the floor with all the size they have. I should get a decline in the offensive output not only b/c they’ve been going up against tough physical defenses, but they’ve also been on the road for a week. There is also one important factor pointing to a decline in the offense, and that is the fact that they’re coming into altitude. They haven’t played a game away from the East Coast in nearly three years. Third, the schemes set themselves up for some low scoring. This may not make sense, but Utah State does not utilize pressure at all. They’re going to let Mercer shoot three after three after three, and while that’s scary, I’m taking my chances with a jump shooting team becoming complacent in altitude. The nice thing about Morrill’s defense is that they don’t allow penetration and they guard the interior well, so it forces teams to become complacent and rely on the outside jump shot. The opposite can be said for Mercer’s defense. They pressure you on the outside, and force you to run your sets on offense to get a good look or dribble penetrate to get a good shot. USU isn’t the best of teams in terms of penetration, so they’re going to run some clock and get the best shot possible, which is the staple of Morrill’s offense.
5* Mercer/Utah State Under 129 (Game)
3* Mercer/Utah State Under 60 (1H)
GL