Connecticut is an extremely well-balanced team as the Huskies are averaging 73.3 points per game against teams that combine to allow just 65.9 points per game, while yielding just 65.7 points per game to teams that combine to score 70.7 points per game. Overall, Connecticut is 7.4 points per game better than average offensively and 5.0 points per game better than average defensively this season. However, Connecticut has played at its highest level of intensity since the commencement of the Big East Tournament where the Huskies won five games in five days to capture the conference title. Indeed, over its last nine games, Connecticut has averaged 76.2 points per game, while allowing a mere 64.8 points per game. Over the same period of time, Kentucky has averaged 68.5 points per game, while yielding 61.2 points per game. While my math model favors Kentucky by two points when taking into account the teams' respective performances this season, the same math model actually favors the Huskies by one point when factoring in the last nine games.
From a technical standpoint, #3 seeds are 8-3 ATS in the Final Four, whereas #4 seeds are 0-3 ATS in this round of the NCAA Tournament. More importantly, Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun is a remarkable 41-13 SU in the NCAA Tournament and 11-1 ATS in neutral court games this season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, teams who are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games (Kentucky) are a money-burning 8-23 ATS in the Final Four, while teams playing with revenge (Kentucky) are a terrible 2-7 ATS. Let's also note that Connecticut is a reliable 10-3 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800, 8-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents and 24-8 ATS following a close win by three points or less.
I also like the fact that Connecticut has been extremely reliable from the foul line as evidenced by its 76.0% free throw rate this season, including shooting 77.9% on the road and 82.3% in the NCAA Tournament. In addition, Connecticut boasts a +5.0 rebound margin over the Wildcats in the last nine games, which will provide the Huskies with invaluable second-chance points in what is expected to be a very competitive game. With a better scoring margin (+7.7 ppg) over the last nine games, together with advantages under the boards and at the free throw line, the Huskies are clearly the best investment in the Final Four.
Connecticut is an extremely well-balanced team as the Huskies are averaging 73.3 points per game against teams that combine to allow just 65.9 points per game, while yielding just 65.7 points per game to teams that combine to score 70.7 points per game. Overall, Connecticut is 7.4 points per game better than average offensively and 5.0 points per game better than average defensively this season. However, Connecticut has played at its highest level of intensity since the commencement of the Big East Tournament where the Huskies won five games in five days to capture the conference title. Indeed, over its last nine games, Connecticut has averaged 76.2 points per game, while allowing a mere 64.8 points per game. Over the same period of time, Kentucky has averaged 68.5 points per game, while yielding 61.2 points per game. While my math model favors Kentucky by two points when taking into account the teams' respective performances this season, the same math model actually favors the Huskies by one point when factoring in the last nine games.
From a technical standpoint, #3 seeds are 8-3 ATS in the Final Four, whereas #4 seeds are 0-3 ATS in this round of the NCAA Tournament. More importantly, Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun is a remarkable 41-13 SU in the NCAA Tournament and 11-1 ATS in neutral court games this season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, teams who are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games (Kentucky) are a money-burning 8-23 ATS in the Final Four, while teams playing with revenge (Kentucky) are a terrible 2-7 ATS. Let's also note that Connecticut is a reliable 10-3 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800, 8-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents and 24-8 ATS following a close win by three points or less.
I also like the fact that Connecticut has been extremely reliable from the foul line as evidenced by its 76.0% free throw rate this season, including shooting 77.9% on the road and 82.3% in the NCAA Tournament. In addition, Connecticut boasts a +5.0 rebound margin over the Wildcats in the last nine games, which will provide the Huskies with invaluable second-chance points in what is expected to be a very competitive game. With a better scoring margin (+7.7 ppg) over the last nine games, together with advantages under the boards and at the free throw line, the Huskies are clearly the best investment in the Final Four.
"In addition, Connecticut boasts a +5.0 rebound margin over the Wildcats in the last nine games, which will provide the Huskies with invaluable second-chance points in what is expected to be a very competitive game. With a better scoring margin (+7.7 ppg) over the last nine games, together with advantages under the boards and at the free throw line, the Huskies are clearly the best investment in the Final Four."
This makes no sense to me...it all depends on who you are playing...the rebound margin against the only two good teams they played in the tournament - UCONN was outrebounded by 12 to Arizona and by 2 to SDSU (UCONN outrebounded two bad teams in Bucknell by 22 & Cincy by 12 really misrepresents their rebound margin). UK outrebounded OSU by one and was -5 against a big athletic team in UNC. I consider this a draw between UK and UCONN...you can state the same examples on the scoring margin...UK played the #1 overall team in OSU and the best 2nd seed and ACC regular season champ in UNC...UCONN beat SDSU & a 5th seed in Arizona...
"In addition, Connecticut boasts a +5.0 rebound margin over the Wildcats in the last nine games, which will provide the Huskies with invaluable second-chance points in what is expected to be a very competitive game. With a better scoring margin (+7.7 ppg) over the last nine games, together with advantages under the boards and at the free throw line, the Huskies are clearly the best investment in the Final Four."
This makes no sense to me...it all depends on who you are playing...the rebound margin against the only two good teams they played in the tournament - UCONN was outrebounded by 12 to Arizona and by 2 to SDSU (UCONN outrebounded two bad teams in Bucknell by 22 & Cincy by 12 really misrepresents their rebound margin). UK outrebounded OSU by one and was -5 against a big athletic team in UNC. I consider this a draw between UK and UCONN...you can state the same examples on the scoring margin...UK played the #1 overall team in OSU and the best 2nd seed and ACC regular season champ in UNC...UCONN beat SDSU & a 5th seed in Arizona...
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