The Chicago Bears are 48 hours away from selecting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This has been a foregone conclusion for the last month or so.
However, behind him, it's anyone's guess who will go second or third. Both Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye have seen their NFL odds lengthen and shorten over the last few days, with Daniels seemingly holding the upper hand as we approach Thursday.
Join me as I break down the 2024 NFL Draft odds below. Or if mock drafts are your thing, find out which QB our latest NFL Mock Draft has penciled in for No. 2.
No. 1 Overall pick odds
Player | Position | |
---|---|---|
Caleb Williams | QB | -20,000 |
Jayden Daniels | QB | +7,500 |
Drake Maye | QB | +9,500 |
J.J. McCarthy | QB | +10,000 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | +20,000 |
Odds as of 4/23
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No. 2 Overall pick odds
Player | Position | |
---|---|---|
Jayden Daniels | QB | -390 |
Drake Maye | QB | +370 |
J.J. McCarthy | QB | +1,000 |
Caleb Williams | QB | +10,000 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | +15,000 |
Odds as of 4/23
After some back-and-forth debate between whether or not it would be Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye at No. 2, the odds appear to have shifted in Daniels' favor. After settling at -260 for the night, Daniels' odds have shortened to -390 amid some reports the Commanders really like the LSU product. Again, pure speculation as the Commanders have done a very good job of not leaking any info. J.J. McCarthy is also getting some love as his odds have shortened from around 20/1 to between 7/1 - 10/1 depending on your book.
No. 3 Overall pick odds
Player | Position | |
---|---|---|
Drake Maye | QB | -290 |
Jayden Daniels | QB | +430 |
J.J. McCarthy | QB | +470 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | +3,100 |
Caleb Williams | QB | +12,000 |
Odds as of 4/23
If Daniels goes No. 2 like most believe he will, the onus then falls on the Patriots to choose between Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy. Given the odds, Maye seems to be the choice, but perhaps not to the Patriots.
According to reports, the New York Giants may be looking to trade up from No. 6 in hopes of securing the services of Maye. Who they would trade spots with is still undetermined, but Maye seems to be a hot commodity heading into Draft Day.
No. 4 Overall pick odds
Player | Position | |
---|---|---|
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | -240 |
J.J. McCarthy | QB | +400 |
Drake Maye | QB | +650 |
Jayden Daniels | QB | +1,500 |
Malik Nabers | WR | +2,000 |
Odds as of 4/23
If all goes according to plan and three quarterbacks are taken off the board within the first three picks, you'd have to fancy Marvin Harrison Jr.'s chances at going No. 4. Hell, the odds sure do. Harrison is an exceptional wide receiver and he would give Kyler Murray a much-needed weapon on the outside (assuming the Cardinals stay put).
No. 5 Overall pick odds
Player | Position | |
---|---|---|
Malik Nabers | WR | +230 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | +300 |
Joe Alt | OT | +400 |
J.J. McCarthy | QB | +450 |
Drake Maye | QB | +1,600 |
Odds as of 4/23
Lastly, the No. 5 overall pick has plenty of unknowns surrounding it. If the Chargers keep it, Malik Nabers certainly makes the most sense, especially after losing Keenan Allen. If they want to go the safe route, Joe Alt is a stud OT who could be a great asset to have when considering the health and longevity of Justin Herbert. Again, this is all based on the Chargers making the fifth pick and not teams trading up to "get their guy."
Latest NFL Draft odds update
April 23, 2024: Caleb Williams is going No. 1, this we know. What we are trying to piece together is what the Commanders are doing at No. 2. We've talked in length about the fluctuating odds of Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, but they are now starting to separate themselves. Daniels' odds have shortened from -260 to -390 while Maye's have lengthened to +370. The biggest mover has been J.J. McCarthy who was upwards of 20/1 and is now between 7/1 to 10/1 depending on your book. Do the Commanders fancy McCarthy? All reports indicate they do, but they'll likely play it safe and take Daniels. This means Maye (-220) appears destined for No. 3, while Harrison Jr. is holding down the No. 4 spot at -240.
Previous NFL Draft betting action
April 22, 2024: We can now stop talking about Caleb Williams going No.1 to the Chicago Bears because that seems like a foregone conclusion considering his odds of -20,000. Instead, let's focus on the action behind him with Jayden Daniel and Drake Maye fighting it out for No. 2. As of late Thursday night, Daniels had seen his odds lengthen from -330 to -115 while Maye's shortened from +250 to -115. Fast forward to Monday, and Daniels appears to be 'the guy' again with odds of -260. From all accounts that seems to be the correct choice, but we've seen Washington make some silly moves in the past. Beyond that fight, Marvin Harrison Jr. appears set at No. 4 with -240 odds. April 18, 2024 — 9 pm ET: Caleb Williams' odds of going No.1 overall to the Chicago Bears are shortening with every passing minute. What was -10,000 just last week is now -20,000 and rightfully so. However, behind him is where it gets interesting. Thursday morning I wrote that Jayden Daniels appeared to be the choice at No.2 with his odds shortening from -155 to -330. Well, fast forward to 9 p.m. ET and that may not be the case anymore. Drake Maye has shot up the board from +250 to -115, which is the same odds as Daniels. Do the Commanders know something we don’t? April 18, 2024: Caleb Williams' odds of going No.1 overall to the Chicago Bears are shortening with every passing minute. What was -10,000 just last week is now -20,000 and rightfully so. Behind him, Jayden Daniels' is winning the fight to go No.2 as his odds have shortened from -155 to -330. Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison appear set to go third and fourth, respectively. April 11, 2024: Two weeks out from the 2024 NFL Draft and we are all waiting for the leak within the Bears organization that confirms they are in fact drafting Caleb Williams. As if -10,000 odds to go first overall aren't enough. Behind him, the fight to go No. 2 appears to be tilting Jayden Daniels' way as he's shortened from -140 to -155. Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison appear set to go third and fourth, respectively. April 4, 2024: We are three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft and there is not much more to report than our last update. Caleb Williams remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 to Chicago at -8,000, while Jayden Daniels has seen his odds lengthen from +2,500 to +3,00. He is, however, the trending choice to go No. 2 with his odd shortening in that market from -115 to -140. Behind him, Drake Maye appears the choice to make it a Top 3 sweep for the quarterbacks, with Marvin Harrison -200 to go fourth overall. March 28, 2024: It's Caleb Williams' draft and everyone knows it. The standout USC QB remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 with his odds shortening from -5,000 to -8,000 in a week. Behind him, there's been plenty of support for Jayden Daniels, but his odds remain the same at +2,500 although his odds of going No. 2 shortened to -115. Drake Maye's odds have lengthened to +3,500, while J.J. McCarthy is getting some love at +6,000 as a potential long shot. March 21, 2024: It's Caleb Williams' draft and everyone knows it. The standout USC QB remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 at -5,000 and we finally have an idea of where he may land. The Chicago Bears decided to ship Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers, opening the door for Williams to be the face of the franchise. Behind him, Drake Maye's odds have lengthened to +3,000, with Jayden Daniels' odds shortening to +2,500. Many believe Daniels to be the better of the two, so this will be an interesting storyline to watch for as we approach April 25. March 15, 2024: It's Caleb Williams' draft and everyone knows it. The standout USC QB remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 at -2,000. The big question is, which team will call his name? Will the Bears trade out of the top spot in favor of collecting a plethora of assets, or will they draft him and collect pennies on the dollar for Justin Fields? Behind him, Drake Maye's odds have lengthened to +1,600, with Jayden Daniels' odds shortened to the same mark. Many believe Daniels to be the better of the two, so this will be an interesting storyline to watch as we approach April 25. March 7, 2024: The Chicago Bears appear dead set on selecting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. So much so, Williams' odds have shortened from -1,600 to -2,000. Drake Maye continues to sit second at +1,100 while Jayden Daniels has drawn minor interest at +2,500. Marvin Harrsion Jr. has seen his odds length to +4,000 but is the odds-on favorite to go No. 4. March 4, 2024: The NFL Draft combine is done and dusted and while we've got a new all-time 40-yard dash record holder, the NFL Draft odds board saw little movement. While Caleb Williams remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 at -1,600, Drake Maye checks in behind him at +1,100. Jayden Daniels continues to sit at +2,500 but Marvin Harrison Jr. has seen his odds lengthen to +2,500 from +2,000. March 1, 2024: The NFL Draft combine is well underway and we've seen some movement on the NFL Draft odds board. While Caleb Williams remains the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 at -1,600, Drake May checks in behind him at +1,100. Jayden Daniels continues to sit at +2,500 but Marvison Harrision Jr. has seen his odds lengthen to +2,500 from +2,000. February 16, 2024: It's everyone's favorite time of year: Mock draft time! Most projections have Caleb Williams going No. 1 overall, but the question remains to who? He's currently the -1,500 favorite, with Drake Maye checking in at +1,000, and Marvin Harrison Jr. rounding out the Top 3 at +2,000. Jayden Daniels has seen his odds drop as he's gone from +4,000 to +2,500. February 2, 2024: The NFL draft order is set and the Chicago Bears are on the clock. Will they give up on Justin Fields in favor of Caleb Williams who is now a -1,200 favorite? Or will they make a trade and allow a team below them to select a potential franchise QB in return for a slew of picks? Either way, Williams has pulled away from Drake Maye (+700) and Marvin Harrison (+1,600). January 15, 2024: The NFL draft order is set and the Chicago Bears are on the clock. Will they give up on Justin Fields in favor of Caleb Williams who is now a -1,000 favorite? Or will they make a trade and allow a team below them to select a potential franchise QB in return for a slew of picks? Either way, Williams has pulled away from Drake Maye (+600) and Marvin Harrison (+1,400). January 8, 2024: It's essentially 'status quo' as we head into the final week of the NFL regular season. Caleb Williams is the consensus No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft with only North Carolina's Drake Maye within touching distance of him at +400. With the Chicago Bears now on the clock for the first overall pick, it'll be interesting to see if they stick with Justin Fields and draft Marvin Harrison Jr, or draft Williams and send Fields packing for a nice little package. December 21, 2023: It's essentially 'status quo' as we head into college football bowl season. Caleb Williams is the consensus No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft with only North Carolina's Drake Maye within touching distance of him at +450. Both Williams and Maye have opted out of their team's bowl games, so you can be certain the draft prep and lobbying has begun from both sides. Behind them, Marvin Harrison Jr. is still at +2,000 with J.J. McCarthy at +3,000 and Penn State OT, Olumuyiwa Fashanu rounding out the Top 5. November 9, 2023: It's essentially 'status quo' as we head into college football bowl season. Caleb Williams is the consensus No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft with only North Carolina's Drake Maye within touching distance of him at +300. Williams has already opted out of USC's bowl game in order to prep for the draft, while Maye has not made a similar decision as of yet. Behind them, Marvin Harrison Jr. is still at +2,000 with J.J. McCarthy at +3,000 and Penn State OT, Olumuyiwa Fashanu rounding out the Top 5. November 22, 2023: Will it be Caleb Williams? Or maybe it'll be Drake Maye? Either way, we are in store for a debate all summer about which QB should go No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Statistically, Williams has had the better season, throwing for more yards and touchdowns, and most would say he's an NFL-ready QB and can help whoever takes him win right away. So why is the gap closing? Tough to say, but whoever lands Maye is going to get one hell of a QB as well. Behind them, Marvin Harrison Jr. is still at +2,000 with J.J. McCarthy at +3,000 and Penn State OT, Olumuyiwa Fashanu rounding out the Top 5. November 9, 2023: Will it be Caleb Williams? Or maybe it'll be Drake Maye? Either way, we are in store for a debate all summer about which QB should go No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Statistically, Williams has had the better season, throwing for more yards and touchdowns, and most would say he's an NFL-ready QB and can help whoever takes him win right away. So why is the gap closing? Tough to say, but whoever lands Maye is going to get one hell of a QB as well. Behind them, Marvin Harrison is still at +2,000 with J.J. McCarthy at +3,000 and Penn State OT, Olumuyiwa Fashanu rounding out the Top 5. October 24, 2023: What was once a foregone conclusion, is now starting to heat up the rumor mill. Caleb Williams has seen his odds of being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 Draft slashed in half, while Drake Maye is picking up steam behind him, with his odds climbing to +270. This is the closest the two have been on the odds boards, and as the season comes to a conclusion, we'll have several more months of debating whether it'll be Williams or Maye to be the first player off the board. Behind them, despite a massive game against Penn State (11 catches, 162 yards, one TD), Marvin Harrison Jr. holds firm as the third betting choice at +2,000. October 4, 2023: Five weeks into the college football season, USC star QB Caleb Williams remains the betting favorite to go first overall at -550, while UNC QB Drake Maye remains the only other player within touching distance at +650. Quinn Ewers and Marvin Harrsion Jr. round out the Top 4 with reasonable odds before we get to Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu at +3,000. Further down the board, Duke QB Riley Leonard sits at +5,000 while Georgia tight end Brock Bowers checks in at +6,000. September 13, 2023: Three weeks into the college football season, USC star QB Caleb Williams remains the betting favorite to go first overall at -330, while UNC QB Drake Maye remains the only other player within touching distance at +550. The biggest mover on the odds boards was Texas QB Quinn Ewers who saw his 25/1 number cut down to 16/1 after throwing for 349 yards and three touchdowns in a win vs. Alabama. The first non-skill position player is still Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu at +3,000. Further down the board, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers checks in at +6,000, while Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy sits at +8000. August 23, 2023: As teams make the final preparations for the start of the 2024 college football season, USC star QB Caleb Williams remains the betting favorite to go first overall at -330, while UNC QB Drake Maye remains the only other player within touching distance at +450. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. holds steady at 20/1, followed by Texas QB Quinn Ewers at 25/1. The first non-skill position player is Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu at +3,000. Further down the board, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers checks in at +6,000, while Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy sits at +800. April 27, 2023: It's never too early to look ahead: USC star QB Caleb Williams is the massive favorite to go first at -550, while UNC QB Drake Maye is the only other person relatively close to him at +600. The next shortest option is Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at 20/1, followed by Notre Dame OT Joe Alt and Penn State OT Olu Fashanu at +2,500. The first defensive player on the board is Alabama CB Ga'Quincy "Kool-Aid" McKinstry, who is tied at +3,000 with OSU DT Michael Hall Jr., while McKinstry's teammate Dallas Turner (a linebacker) and FSU DE Jared Verse are the only other players opening at shorter than 40/1. Filling out the rest of the odds board are quarterbacks, including Texas' Quinn Ewers, former Heisman candidate Spencer Rattler, and Colorado Buffalo Shedeur Sanders — the son of high-profile coach Deion Sanders!
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NFL Draft Top 5 pick odds
Player | |
---|---|
Caleb Williams | -6,000 |
Drake Maye | -2,000 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | -1,800 |
J.J. McCarthy | -150 |
Malik Nabers | +155 |
Joe Alt | +270 |
Rome Odunze | +1,600 |
Taliese Fuaga | -2,400 |
Dallas Turner | -3,000 |
Odds as of 4/23
If you've read our latest NFL Mock draft, you know that our CFB expert loves the QB group to round out the Top 4 picks. We are talking about Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy.
However, if that's the case, you'll need to bank on some QB-needy team trading into the Top 5 to grab McCarthy. At -170, that seems like a steep price to pay which is why his odds have lengthened to -150 as of Tuesday.
If the Cardinals or Chargers keep their picks at No. 4 and No. 5 respectively, you can almost be certain they are taking a wide receiver to give Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert more weapons. Whether they like Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze is a question that'll be answered on Thursday, but at plus money on both, you can't go wrong with the value.
Player Draft position odds
Brock Bowers (TE) — Over 11.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
There's a lot to like with Brock Bowers at the tight end position. He's big, he's strong, he's agile and he's got hands that rival some excellent receivers. However, the problem is that he's up against a very good wide receiver class with the likes of Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze all projected first-round picks. I don't believe anyone will trade up to spend first-round capital on a TE, but the group I'm looking at is the Raiders, Saints, or Colts at 13-15. Bowers could provide those three teams with an added element they've been missing for a while and spending a mid-first seems like a fair price. His odds have lengthened a bit from -122 to -114 on Tuesday.
Jared Verse (DE) — Under 16.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
If teams are looking for the next disruptor on the defensive side of things, Jared Verse is your guy. He's big, he's powerful, he wreaked havoc at Florida State for the last two seasons, putting up 29.5 tackles for loss and 18 sacks in 25 games. We always hear the term "best available player" when teams are on the clock and after the Top 5, Verse will be that guy. I say he goes inside the Top 10 to Chicago if all three WRs are off the board.
2024 Round 1 Draft order
Draft Order | W/L Record |
---|---|
1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) | 2-15 (Carolina) |
2. Washington Commanders | 4-13 |
3. New England Patriots | 4-13 |
4. Arizona Cardinals | 4-13 |
5. Los Angeles Chargers | 5-12 |
6. New York Giants | 6-11 |
7. Tennessee Titans | 6-11 |
8. Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 |
9. Chicago Bears | 7-10 |
10. New York Jets | 7-10 |
11. Minnesota Vikings | 7-10 |
12. Denver Broncos | 8-9 |
13. Las Vegas Raiders | 8-9 |
14. New Orleans Saints | 9-8 |
15. Indianapolis Colts | 9-8 |
16. Seattle Seahawks | 9-8 |
17. Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 |
18. Cincinnati Bengals | 9-8 |
19. Los Angeles Rams | 9-8 |
20. Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-8 |
21. Miami Dolphins | 10-7 (Houston) |
22. Philadelphia Eagles | 10-7 |
23. Minnesota Vikings (via Cleveland through Houston) | 7-10 |
24. Dallas Cowboys | 11-6 |
25. Green Bay Packers | 11-6 |
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11-6 |
27. Arizona Cardinals (via Houston) | 11-6 |
28. Buffalo Bills | 11-6 |
29. Detroit Lions | 12-5 |
30. Baltimore Ravens | 12-5 |
31. San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 |
32. Kansas City Chiefs | 13-4 |
NFL Draft betting trends
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field and following Carolina taking Bryce Young at No.1 in 2023, 19 of the last 26 first-overall picks have been QBs.
• All but two of the last 16 NFL Drafts have seen an offensive lineman get picked in the Top 10, with 2023 being no different as Paris Johnson Jr. went sixth and Darnell Wright went at No. 10.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
Year | Player | Position |
---|---|---|
2023 | Bryce Young | QB |
2022 | Travon Walker | DE |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence | QB |
2020 | Joe Burrow | QB |
2019 | Kyler Murray | QB |
2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB |
2017 | Myles Garrett | DE |
2016 | Jared Goff | QB |
2015 | Jameis Winston | QB |
2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE |
2013 | Eric Fisher | OT |
2012 | Andrew Luck | QB |
2011 | Cam Newton | QB |
2010 | Sam Bradford | QB |
2009 | Matthew Stafford | QB |
2008 | Jake Long | OT |
2007 | JaMarcus Russell | QB |
2006 | Mario Williams | DE |
How to bet on the 2024 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon the previous year's draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft odds
The odds of going first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
- Drake Maye +550
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Maye, you would win $550 if the Tar Heels QB goes first overall in 2024. When you get closer to the draft and there is a consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
- Caleb Williams -550
This means that you'd have to bet $550 to win $100 on Williams being drafted first overall.
Above we have posted the American odds for the 2024 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
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NFL Draft Odds FAQs
USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the consensus betting favorite (-20,000) to be the first selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Among the top prospects are USC QB Caleb Williams, UNC QB Drake Maye, and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Alabama Quarterback Bryce Young went to the Carolina Panthers at No. 1 overall.