Adjusted NFL win totals: Capping the biggest changes

Oct 24, 2012 |
Eight weeks of football is enough time to have your NFL season win total bets on life support.

There’s a rapid beeping noise coming from the Green Bay Packers’ season win total of 12 wins and the New England Patriots’ 12-win number is on a respirator after both skidded out to 4-3 starts to the year.

Thankfully, one online book is offering adjusted win totals heading into Week 8. is giving NFL bettors a second crack at teams’ total wins, and here are the biggest changes between their new totals and the original numbers:

New Orleans Saints (2-4)

Open: 10 wins/Adjusted: 7.5 wins

The Saints’ bumpy start has chipped away at this season win number but New Orleans has won back-to-back games and can get right back in the mix with a win over Denver Sunday night. Now may be the best time to buy low with the Saints.

Detroit Lions (2-4)

Open: 9.5 wins/Adjusted: 6.5 wins

After a solid 2011 campaign, Detroit was among those teams expected to flirt with double-digit “W’s” in 2012. But after a dismal showing on Monday Night Football, this struggling offense is trying to claw its way out of the NFC North basement.

Chicago Bears (5-1)

Open: 8.5 wins/Adjusted: 10.5 wins

Keeping it in the NFC North, the Bears flexed their defensive muscle on Monday night and have shown they can let it fly or grind it out with the football. Chicago has a couple cupcakes coming up before a road-heavy final stretch tests its true mettle.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

Open: 8 wins/Adjusted: 4.5 wins

What can you say about the Chiefs? They recently swapped out Matt Cassel for Brady Quinn, have lost their dreaded home-field edge in Arrowhead and have allowed opponents to score 30.5 points a game. But, outside of meetings with Pittsburgh and Denver, K.C. has plenty of winnable games left on the slate.

Carolina Panthers (1-5)

Open: 7.5 wins/Adjusted: 4.5 wins

Cam Newton is suffering through a sophomore slump and the organization just showed GM Marty Hurney the door. On top of that, Carolina placed star linebacker Jon Beason on IR this week. The Panthers have had a tough opening slate but things are getting much cheerier in the final two months of the calendar.

Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

Open: 6 wins/Adjusted: 8.5 wins

Is this adjusted line too short? Football fans didn’t expect to see the old Adrian Peterson and sure as hell didn’t expect the defense to be this good. If you’re buying into the Vikings’ hot start, grab this one up. Minnesota will be tested in the final two months with five of its final nine games coming on the road, including four of its final six.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

Open: 5.5 wins/Adjusted: 3.5 wins

A banged-up QB and no MJD trims two wins off the Jaguars season win total. Jacksonville showed some fight last week, albeit coming against 2-4 Oakland.  The remaining schedule has the Jags up against the likes of Super Bowl contenders Green Bay, Houston and New England.

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