Sunday's NFL Week 5 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Oct 4, 2013 |
Sunday's NFL Week 5 betting cheat sheet: Early action
Saints QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing six INTs in four games.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Saints QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing six INTs in four games.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Check out our NFL cheat sheet for Week 5's late action.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 45)

New England has not won its first five games since running the table in its 16-0 season of 2007, but it will have to overcome a major injury. Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles' tendon.

Cincinnati managed only 266 total yards in the loss to Cleveland but will likely make a concerted effort to get the ground game going to exploit the absence of the massive Wilford in the middle. Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and could be supplanted soon by rookie Giovani Bernard, who averages 4.6 yards a pop and has 10 catches the past two weeks.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bengals -1. Total steady at 45.
WEATHER: Low 70s, 77% chance of thunder showers, winds SW 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.5

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 53.5)

The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.

Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

LINE: Opened Packers -7.5. Total moved 52 to 53.5.
WEATHER: Mid 50s, 21% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) - Green Bay (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -7

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 43.5)

Seattle leads the NFC with a plus-seven turnover differential and has notched multiple interceptions in three consecutive games. The Seahawks hope to have defensive end Michael Bennett (2.5 sacks) available after he was removed from the field via stretcher with a back injury against Houston.

Veteran sack master Robert Mathis is wreaking havoc after a three-sack outing against the Jaguars and is tied for the NFL lead with 7.5. Indianapolis has a plus-six margin in takeaways and is allowing 12.8 points per game, fourth-best in the NFL.

LINE: Opening Seattle -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 43 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -2.5

* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 22-8 in Colts last 30 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Pro Bowler Ray Rice has been held in check this season, rushing for just 89 yards on 30 carries. While Rice's numbers have dipped, wideout Torrey Smith continues to benefit from the departure of Anquan Boldin to San Francisco by amassing a career-high 166 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to the Bills.

While Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sacked 12 times, that number pales in comparison to the league-high 18 that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has endured. While coach Joe Philbin dismisses the premise of a disconnect between Tannehill and offseason addition Mike Wallace, there is no denying that the two have struggled to get on the same page. The electric and outspoken wideout has just 15 receptions for 176 yards this season

LINE: Opening Miami -3.5 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 42.5 to 43.5.
WEATHER: Mid 80s, 30% chance of thunder showers, winds SSE 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (-0.5) - Miami (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -2.5

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 48.5)

While the Saints' offense has been garnering the headlines, the defense quietly has been much improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan, ranking sixth in yards allowed (304.5 per game) and fifth in points (13.8). QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing for seven TDs and six interceptions in four career games there.

Jay Cutler is coming off a four-turnover performance in a 40-32 loss at Detroit. Despite the four turnovers at Detroit, Cutler rallied the team from a 40-16 deficit to make it a one-possession game late in the contest. He has a career-high 64.2 completion percentage under new coordinator Aaron Kromer — who was the Saints' interim coach for six games last season.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bears +1 at some books. Total moved 47.5 to 48.5.
WEATHER: Mid 50s, 17% chance of rain, winds W 14 mph
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-5.5) - Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Home team is 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

Giants QB Eli Manning is leading the league with nine interceptions through four games. Some of that is due to poor pass protection. David Diehl is scheduled to make his first start of the season at right guard. The Giants are dealing with injuries on the defensive side, with tackles Linval Joseph, Cullen Jenkins and Shaun Rogers, cornerbacks Corey Webster, Jayron Hosley and Aaron Ross all dealing with injuries.

Michael Vick started out strong for Kelly in the first two weeks with a total of eight touchdowns but slumped to a combined 27-for-57 for 449 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the last two weeks. The Eagles insist they are moving forward defensively and will get a chance to prove that against turnover-prone New York.

LINE: Opened New York -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 55 to 53.
WEATHER: Mid 70s, 19% chance of rain, winds SSE 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+2.0) - New York (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick

* Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
* Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Several factors have contributed into the Chiefs' stunning start to the season, but strong second-half performances are at the top of the list. Kansas City is outscoring opponents 34-10 after the break, and has put together clock-killing drives in the fourth quarter of each of its last three games to protect slim leads.

Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been thrust into the No. 1 role after regular starter Jake Locker suffered a hip injury in the win over the Jets and will miss several weeks. Fitzpatrick appeared in 55 games with the Buffalo Bills before being cut in March, showing that the 30-year-old is no stranger to the starting role.

LINE: Opened Chiefs -3 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 39 to 38.5.
WEATHER: Low 70s, 79% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-2.5) + Tennessee (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5, 41)

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring and 30th in scoring defense. Among the positives on the Jacksonville side this week is the return of standout wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

St. Louis is the only team in the NFL with a worse rushing attack than Jacksonville, as the Rams average only 47.3 yards on the ground. With virtually no complimentary ground game against the 49ers, Sam Bradford completed only 19-of-41 passes, was sacked five times and turned the ball over twice.

LINE: Opened Rams -14 and moved to -11.5. Total moved 42 to 41.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+11.0) - St. Louis (+6.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -7.5

* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Rams last seven home games.

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