Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Oct 16, 2013 |
Sunday is still a few days off but already football bettors are moving the NFL Week 7 odds. We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, about some of the biggest mid-week adjustments in Week 7:

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions – Open: -1, Move: -3

Two up-and-down teams butt heads in the Motor City. Some shops opened as low as Detroit -1 while others opened -3 and dropped to -2.5 with action on the Bengals.

“Cincinnati just can’t seem to get the offense going,” says Stoneback. “Detroit has been able put up points, but both have been very inconsistent.”

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +9, Move: +7.5

This is one of the least-bet games on the Week 7 board, according to Stoneback. However, whatever action has come in is on the Jaguars. Bettors are turning around on Jacksonville in recent weeks.

After fading the Jags through the first five weeks, the public backed Jacksonville last week and are back on them again versus the Chargers.

“People would have easily given two touchdowns on the road with the Jags two weeks ago. They would have had no problem with it,” says Stoneback. “Now, after last week, they think Jacksonville may be able to keep this within a touchdown.”

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some markets opened this spread with Philadelphia as a slight home favorite and moved that quickly to the key number of three. Stoneback says the Eagles have been a popular play with the sharps in recent weeks, and could see that attention again even with Nick Foles under center for the injured Mike Vick.

“I don’t think there is a much of a difference on the spread between Foles and Vick. It’s more of a system there in Philly,” says Stoneback. “If Vick was in, there’s no way this would be at -3.5.”

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
– Open: -4.5, Move: -7.5

This line has moved as many as three points at some markets, with the Texans in a nose dive and headed straight to Arrowhead Stadium, where the record for loudest crowd was just set. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

“The public thinks Houston is done,” says Stoneback, who notes that action on the Chiefs is outnumber bets on the Texans at 12/1. “They’ve fallen apart. I could see this one going to seven by Sunday and maybe the sharps buying back Houston.”

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers – Open: -12, Move: -10

The Packers lost WRs James Jones and Randle Cobb to knee injuries last Sunday and already are missing key cogs on the defensive side of the ball. Early money has trimmed this spread as many as two points at some books.

“We opened Cleveland +10.5 and took early action on the Browns and moved down to +10,” says Stoneback. “Cleveland gave up 31 points last week but this is a pretty good defense. If the Browns can score a touchdown or two, it’s tough to lay double digits.”

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