CFL leans toward under in Week 1 over past six seasons

Jun 28, 2013 |
The Montreal Alouettes and Winnipeg Blue Bombers went against the Week 1 grain in their CFL season opener Thursday night, playing over the 49.5-point total with a 39-33 Montreal win at Investors Group Field.

CFL teams had produced an 8-16 over/under record in Week 1 of the schedule since 2007 heading into 2013, including a 1-3 over/under count in the opening slate of the 2012 season.

Some point to rust of the offseason or new offensive players and coaches still fine tuning their schemes and timing as the reason for this one-sided result, which has paid off for under bettors at a profitable 66.6 percent rate.

The Toronto Argonauts, the defending Grey Cup champions, have been the best under bet in Week 1 during that span, staying below the number in all six games since 2007. The Calgary Stampeders are the second most profitable under play in Week 1, with a 1-5 over/under count in the opener over the past six seasons.

Both Toronto and Calgary are in action Friday night. The Argos open the schedule with a 54.5-point total hosting the Hamilton TiCats (2-4 O/U in Week 1 since 2007) while the Stampeders welcome the BC Lions (2-4 O/U in Week 1 since 2007) to McMahon Stadium with the number sitting at 51.5 points.

Only one team, the Saskatchewan Roughriders, have leaned toward the over more in Week 1 since 2007 heading into this season. They boast a 4-2 over/under count over their past six season debuts and visit the Edmonton Eskimos (2-4 O/U in Week 1 since 2007) with the total at 49 points Saturday. However, these heated rivals have stayed under the number in 14 of their last 18 head-to-head meetings.

Thursday’s season-opening result bumped Montreal to 4-3 over/under in Week 1 over the past six seasons while Winnipeg moved to 3-4 over/under in that same situation.

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