Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Nov 22, 2013 |
Week 13 of the college football slate can be one of the toughest tasks for NCAAF bettors. Teams are chasing bowl berths, prepping for their season finales, or looking forward to forgetting about football for a while. That hasn’t slowed down the action at the sportsbooks, which have juggled the lines all week.

We talk with Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the biggest moves on the NCAAF Week 13 board:

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats
– Open:  -18.5, Move: -21.5

If you listened to Steve Merril in this week’s NCAAF Line Watch article, then hopefully you quickly got down on the Ducks below the key number of three touchdowns. It didn’t take long for the money to pour in on Oregon, forcing this line to jump three points in a matter of hours. Some markets are still dealing the Ducks below -21.

“Less than two hours after we had game open, sharp bets came on Oregon,” Perry tells Covers. “The Ducks are now on the inside track to being the top seed from the Pac-12. Wildcats are going the other way, failing to cover in three straight games, including home loss to Washington State. So far, 89 percent of the cash is on the Ducks.”

Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies – Open: -7, Move: -10

This MWC matchup has been bumped from one key number to the next with 65 percent of action sitting on the home side Saturday. The wagering has balanced out a bit since moving to USU -10.

“Tuesday, we got a sharp play on the Aggies -7, so moved to -7.5,” says Perry. “Two out of every three dollars was still backing Utah State -9, so moved to -10 on Wednesday.”

UMass Minutemen at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open:  -9.5, Move: -12.5

Sharp money isn’t behind this massive move. Instead, public money is piling up on the home favorite with 91 percent of the money on CMU. Perry believes the one-sided action has to do with health of UMass QB A.J. Doyle.

“No sharp action on this game, just a real big decision,” says Perry. “On Wednesday we moved from -9 to -10 and on Thursday moved to -12.5. Doyle is a bit dinged up. He's currently listed as probable with a shoulder injury.”

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open: +14.5, Move: +17

This Big Ten battle has had its spread move nearly three points with heavy action on the road favorite Saturday. Wisconsin has drawn 71 percent of the public action heading into the weekend. Minnesota will be without top receiver Derrick Engel.

“Monday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Wisconsin, buying half a point to -14. Later that day, we moved Wisky to -16,” says Perry. “Heavy majority of public money on Wisconsin, so on Wednesday we moved to -17. The Badgers are an absolute covering machine this season, posting a 9-0-1 ATS record.”

Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins – Open: +3, Move: +1.5

Wiseguys moved this slim Pac-12 spread off a field goal with money on the home underdog. Some books are still dealing UCLA around +2.5.

“Tuesday morning, we got a wiseguy play on Bruins +3, so moved to 1.5,”says Perry. “Sixty-six percent of the cash is backing UCLA.”

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