Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Nov 15, 2013 |
Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Late action
Denver is 8-1 Over/Under this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Denver is 8-1 Over/Under this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

San Diego is in the midst of stretch of four out of five on the road and dropped the lone home game last week to the Denver Broncos 28-20. The Chargers fell behind early in that one and never recovered, allowing Peyton Manning to pass for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a scene that is becoming common for a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league.

Miami is down two offensive linemen with Jonathan Martin and alleged tormentor Richie Incognito away from the team and that loss was felt in the running game on Monday, when the Dolphins managed a total of two yards on 14 carries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked twice on the team’s final possession. The second-year signal caller has taken 37 sacks this season - the most in the NFL.

LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog with the total set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with  wind blowing across the length of the field at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0) + Miami (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Chargers -1

* Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)

Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson leads the league with nine rushing touchdowns and his 87.3 yards per game on the ground rank third. He rushed for 182 yards and two TDs on 17 carries in a 30-20 loss at Seattle last November. Wide receiver Jerome Simpson, who leads the team with 491 receiving yards, is likely to play despite an arrest on suspicion of drunken driving last weekend.

Seattle, which increased its NFC West lead to 2 1/2 games with a rout at Atlanta last week, is going for its sixth win in a row and its 13th consecutive victory at home. The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s most balanced teams, ranking in the top six in both total defense (289 yards allowed per game) and scoring (26.5 points). Adding returning receiver Percy Harvin to the mix should make the offense even more dangerous.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 13.5-point fave but the line has been bet down to -12. The total is 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 42 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.5) + Seattle (-7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -15.5

* Vikings are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)

San Francisco's offense has played at one extreme or the other, topping 30 points in all six wins and being held to single digits in all three losses. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's receiving corps is getting healthier, as Mario Manningham played last week and Michael Crabtree (Achilles) has returned to practice and is eligible to come off the reserve list.

New Orleans' high-powered offense keeps rolling along despite nagging injuries to star tight end Jimmy Graham. Rookie receiver Kenny Stills has become a key part of the offense with four TD receptions in the past four games. One cause for concern is the defense's recent drop-off in takeaways - after forcing 15 turnovers in the first seven games, the Saints haven't forced any in the past two.

LINE: The Saints opened -3 and are now -3.5, with the total up a half-point to 48.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5

* 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)

Green Bay was atop its division following a four-game winning streak but quarterback Aaron Rodgers hurt his collarbone in a Monday night showdown against Chicago - the latest and most damaging in a spate of injuries that has ravaged the roster. Backup Seneca Wallace went down in the first quarter of last week's 27-13 home loss to Philadelphia, prompting the NFL debut of Scott Tolzien, who threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

The biggest reasons for New York's turnaround have been cutting down on turnovers and a revival of a defense that surrendered an average of more than 34 points through the first six games but has permitted a total of 34 in the last three wins. Quarterback Eli Manning was a turnover machine during the season-opening skid, tossing 15 of his 16 interceptions and losing four fumbles, but he has been picked off only once during the current winning streak.

New York opened as high as -8 but has settled in at -4. The total is currently 42..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with overcast skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.5) - New York (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5

* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Giants are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)

Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game.

Peyton Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes.

LINE: Denver is currently a 7.5-point fave with the total dipping from 51 to 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-4.5) + Denver (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -6.5

* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the NFC West.
* Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November games.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Denver's last 16 games following an ATS win.

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