The 70th annual Emmy Awards will be held this coming Monday at the Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles, and broadcast on NBC. Like the Oscars, the Emmys are a great opportunity for betting on something other than sports, with a range of categories to choose from.
Film and TV critic Josh Bell breaks down which shows and actors are mostly likely to win, and which ones are most deserving of walking away with the awards.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
| Handmaid's Tail | -350 |
| Game of Thrones | +250 |
| The Americans | +1,400 |
| The Crown | +1,600 |
| This Is Us | +2,500 |
| Westworld | +3,300 |
| Stranger Things | +4,000 |
What Will Win: After its win last year made it the first streaming show to take home the award for Outstanding Series (either drama or comedy), The Handmaid’s Tale has momentum on its side, and Emmy voters typically stick with a series they like until its quality drops off significantly (and sometimes even after). The second season of Handmaid’s continued to receive strong reviews, and its political relevance has only grown, giving Emmy voters the chance to come off as forward-thinking and even bold in handing the dystopian series its second win.
What Should Win: There may be some sentimental force for The Americans, which is nominated for its final season, and if that somehow turns out to be enough to push it over the top for the first (and last) time, it would be more than well-deserved. The FX drama starring Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell as Russian sleeper agents in 1980s America has been brilliant since its debut, and the sixth season was a suspenseful, haunting gut punch, bringing the story to a deeply affecting conclusion. The acting, writing and direction were all at their highest level, and it would be a fitting end for the show to finally get its due.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
| Atlanta | -150 |
| The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel | +125 |
| Barry | +1,200 |
| Black-ish | +3,300 |
| Curb Your Enthusiasm | +3,300 |
| Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt | +3,330 |
| GLOW | +4,000 |
| Silicon Valley | +5,000 |
What Will Win: With last year’s winner, Veep, not eligible this year because it’s been on hiatus, the top spot is pretty much a toss-up between Donald Glover’s striking (but possibly too esoteric) Atlanta and Amy Sherman-Palladino’s warm period piece The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (which won the Golden Globe earlier this year). Atlanta has a more daring artistic vision, with episodes that take on different genres and storytelling styles, but it may ultimately be too strange for traditional Emmy voters. Mrs. Maisel is an hourlong dramedy, but it still has plenty of laughs, and its period setting and more straightforward narrative makes it a safer choice.
What Should Win: Safe or not, Mrs. Maisel is one of the absolute best shows on TV, with fascinating characters, razor-sharp writing, a sophisticated visual style and a knockout lead performance from Rachel Brosnahan as the title character, a New York City housewife making her way into the 1950s stand-up comedy scene. Its first season was consistently brilliant, and while Atlanta has individual episodes that are close to artistic masterpieces, the show as a whole can be very uneven.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
| Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us | -138 |
| Matthew Rhys, The Americans | +125 |
| Milo Ventimigliam, This Is Us | +1,000 |
| Jeffrey Wright, Westworld | +1,600 |
| Ed Harris, Westworld | +2,500 |
| Jason Bateman, Ozark | +3,300 |
Who Will Win: NBC’s weepy melodrama This Is Us has emerged as the last bastion of awards power on traditional network television, and Brown (who won last year) has become its designated award-winner. He doesn’t have much competition this year, even from his own show, and this should be an easy one for him to take home. As contrived as the twists and reveals on This Is Us can be, it’s the acting that sells them to the audience, and Brown in particular has risen to that challenge.
Who Should Win: That said, there isn’t exactly a lot of subtlety in what Brown or anyone else does on This Is Us, and other performers in this category have taken on different, more complex challenges. On Westworld, Wright and Harris must deliver compelling performances often without knowing the true nature of the plot, or even their own characters’ motivations. But the best work in this category belongs to Rhys, whose performance in the final season of The Americans was consistently moving and powerful, without resorting to the kind of crass manipulation on display in This Is Us.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
| Elizabeth Moss, Handmaid's Tale | -350 |
| Sandra Oh, Killing Eve | +500 |
| Claire Foy, The Crown | +600 |
| Keri Russell, The Americans | +1,400 |
| Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld | +2,800 |
| Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black | +3,330 |
Who Will Win: Moss will almost certainly take home her second award for The Handmaid’s Tale, which is a fantastic showcase for her talents. Her performance as captive handmaid Offred is intense and heartbreaking, and the second season gave her more variety to tackle, as Offred went on the run from her oppressors. Moss has to serve as the anchor on a grim, often depressing show, and she draws viewers in with her empathy and inner strength, even when the show can be tough to watch.
Who Should Win: Keri Russell does similar work on the often downbeat The Americans, and has been doing it beautifully for six seasons. A sweep for The Americans is pretty much an impossibility, but Russell might be the most deserving of the show’s nominated creative team, for the work she’s done making dedicated spy (and sometime cold-blooded killer) Elizabeth Jennings into a complex, tragic figure.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
| Donald Glover, Atlanta | -300 |
| Bill Hader, Barry | +225 |
| Ted Danson, The Good Place | +1,600 |
| Anthony Anderson, Black-ish | +2,800 |
| William H. Macy, Shameless | +3,300 |
| Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm | +3,330 |
Who Will Win: Even though he’s not the focus of every episode, Atlanta is Glover’s show all the way, and he demonstrated impressive range in the show’s second season, playing struggling music manager Earn Marks as both the savviest and sometimes the most clueless guy in the room, depending on the situation and who’s around him. Glover also delivered an incredibly creepy turn as reclusive musician Teddy Perkins in the season’s oddest episode, making the case that he might deserve a Guest Actor award for appearing on his own show.
Who Should Win: Glover is the standout in a category that includes a number of veterans who’ve played the same character for years. Newcomer Hader brings a dark edge to his portrayal of a hitman and aspiring actor on Barry, but his performance is a little too subdued at times. And Danson is enormously likable as a literal demon trying to understand humanity on The Good Place, although his likability is probably taken for granted by now. All things considered, Glover has the most to offer here, even more than when he won for the first time in this category last year.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
| Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel | -1,600 |
| Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish | +700 |
| Alison Janney, Mom | +1,400 |
| Pamela Adlon, Better Things | +3,300 |
| Issa Rae, Insecure | +4,000 |
| Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie | +4,000 |
Who Will Win: There’s no Marvelous Mrs. Maisel without Brosnahan as Midge Maisel, and her mesmerizing performance carries the show. She’s convincing as a bright new talent in stand-up comedy, but she also conveys Midge’s insecurities and frustrations with grace and humor, making Midge into far more than a punchline-generating genius. She’s one of the most distinctive and memorable characters on TV, and Brosnahan makes every moment of the show’s top-notch writing shine. With perennial winner Julie Louis-Dreyfus of Veep off this year, and Brosnahan’s recent Golden Globe win, she should be a slam dunk for this category.
Who Should Win: There’s no question that Brosnahan should win; the other nominees have their strengths, but none of them makes the kind of immediate impression that Brosnahan does as Midge.
Follow Josh Bell on Twitter @signalbleed, Facebook and at joshbellhateseverything.com.
