The odds for Week 12 of the college football season have been on the move since hitting the boards last weekend. We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the biggest adjustments to this Saturday’s spreads.
Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers - Open: -20, Move: -27
This week's biggest mover is easily this Big Ten matchup between the Hoosiers and Badgers. At 8-0-1 against the spread, the Badgers are college football's best bet and are 5-0 ATS at Camp Randall Stadium this season, a stat hasn't been lost on bettors.
"Indiana has a good offense, but the big line move is due to the expected absence of RB Tevin Coleman, and obviously the fact that they give up big pts per game," says Black. "Wisconsin needs big margins of victory, so they will definitely be trying to go all out to win by as many as possible. Action has been all over the Badgers."
Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks - Open: -13.5, Move: -12.5
Normally, the Florida Gators are ever-present in SEC and BCS discussions. Not this year. The Gators have been injury riddled virtually all season and the team has struggled, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The defense, however, has been quite formidable.
"The Gamecocks need to win this week to maintain a charge at the SEC title," says Black. "A two-TD fave line wouldn’t have been the forecast coming into the season for this game, but with Florida's injuries, and effectively the only real motivation now is to play spoiler and try not become the first Gator team with a losing record in 34 years. Action has been split on this one, but the Gamecocks see more ATS at a 2-to-1 clip."
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Open: -24.5, Move: -23
Clearly, the No. 1 team in the nation is rolling as Alabama is coming off a big victory over LSU. They have a massive game versus Auburn upcoming, but first, must not look past Mississippi State.
"The Bulldogs have been owned by 'Bama in their last five meetings, and this week shouldn’t be any different," predicts Black. "However, it's often tough for teams to stay playing at a high level when the have come off a big win. The line move is more down to MSU QB Dak Prescott being upgraded, and considered sharp money seems to respect the way they finished against the Aggies last week. But overall, the action is all about 'Bama by a 5-to-1 clip ATS."