Does winter weather give value to Over in Army-Navy?

Dec 13, 2013 |
Philadelphia football fans are in for another wild winter game when Army takes on Navy at Lincoln Financial Field Saturday.

Almost a week after the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions scored a combined 54 points in the middle of a blizzard, the annual meeting between armed forces is expected to get hit with snow and ice.

The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for a 100 percent chance snow, changing to ice pellets later in the game. Temperatures will dip below freezing and winds will blow ENE at 8 mph.

Both the Black Knights and Midshipmen rely heavily on the spread option offense, ranking No. 2 and No. 3 in rushing yards per game, respectively. While the knee-jerk reaction to winter weather in football games is to take the Under, last Sunday’s NFL game in Philadelphia proved otherwise.

Defensive players have a tougher time reacting to offenses and the slippery conditions make blitzing and pass rushes nearly impossible. This is especially true when dealing with run-heavy offenses, as evidenced by Eagles RB LeSean McCoy’s massive 217-yard, two-touchdown performance in the snow against Detroit. That NFL Week 14 game also had two kick return touchdowns.

The 34-20 Eagles win played Over the 51-point total, which was bet down from an opener of 54.5 once the forecast for Sunday's game was clearer. There were four other games plagued with winter weather and they all played Over the total.

The total for Army-Navy opened as high as 55-points and has since dropped to 51.5. The last seven meetings between these rivals have played Under the number.

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