Four betting trends for NCAAB conference title games

Mar 11, 2013 |
It’s championship week and with it the reward of a ticket to the Big Dance for all the teams cutting down the nets after their conference tournament championship game.

Before knee jerking and playing on teams in title games that on paper look to be the better squad, pay close attention to these four college conference championship moneymaking scenarios.

Note: All results are prior to this year’s tourneys and are since 1990.

Size matters

Having been there and done that goes a long way toward a team’s success in conference title games.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams who won 27 or more games the previous season use that weight to their advantage, going 64-44-3 ATS in conference title games.

Put them up against a No. 4 or lower seed and they improve to 29-3 SU and 23-8-1 ATS, including 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS if they defeated their lightweight opponent in their most recent meeting.

Ain’t no stopping us now

Momentum can carry a team a long way, especially when they arrive at the conference championship game.

No. 1 or 2 seeded favorites that enter off three wins in a row by an average win margin of 20 points per game or better are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS.

Put them up against an opponent that failed to cover the spread by more than six points in its last game and they zoom right to the head of the class, going 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS.

Home teams in title games – Use them, don’t abuse them

Home is where the heart is. It’s also where the money is in championship games. That’s confirmed by the fact that host teams are 38-15 SU and 29-23-1 ATS.

If these home advantaged teams lost one or fewer games at home on the season, they improve to 23-1 SU and 15-8-1 ATS, including 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS if they are hosting a No.1 or No. 2-seeded opponent.

Best of all, these one-loss or less wonders are 4-0 SU and ATS if the opponent did not cover the number in its semifinal contest.

Dogs with a higher win percentage have no bite

As rare as it may seem, teams with the better record are not always favored in championship games.

When the oddsmakers install the opponent with an inferior win percentage as the favorite, they know what they’re doing. That’s because underdogs with a better win percentage are just 17-26-2 ATS in these games.

And if the favorite owns a win percentage of .700 or more, the underdog dips to 7-18 ATS.

Better yet, underdogs with a better record who arrive to the title game off back-to-back SU and ATS wins against .700 or greater opponents are a lowly 1-9 ATS. Buyer beware.

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