English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Nov 8, 2013 |
This weekend marks the last in the Premier League before yet another break for International competition. Liverpool will be hungry for points after being blanked 2-0 by leaders Arsenal at the Emirates last time out.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about some of the action coming in on Saturday's fixtures.

Aston Villa v Cardiff (+105, +240, +310)

Why bet Aston Villa: Prior to last week's scoreless draw at West Ham, the Villains suffered a pair of tough home losses to Spurs and Everton. The side will be desperate for points, currently sitting 14th and in danger of reaching the relegation zone.

Key players out/doubtful:
Andreas Weimann, Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Gabriel Agbonlahor

Why bet Cardiff: Cardiff, the city and club, will be buzzing after winning the first ever Welsh derby in top-flight football. Steven Caulker's 62' goal against Swansea will go down in the history books and could be a huge motivation factor for the Bluebirds moving forward.

Key players out/doubtful: Andreas Cornelius

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Aston Villa has not scored in its previous four matches in the Premier League.

Chelsea v West Brom
(-350, +500, +1100)

Why bet Chelsea:
The Blues suffered a big letdown last week after their 2-0 defeat away to Newcastle. They did bounce back in fine fashion midweek with another convincing win over Schalke in Champions League. The Blues had won three straight (and four of five) prior to the Newcastle loss. Plus, they're at Stamford Bridge, where Jose Mourinho never loses.

Key players out/doubtful: Fernando Torres, Marco van Ginkel

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies bounced back from a 4-1 loss at Liverpool with a 2-0 victory over league doormat Crystal Palace. They are capable of defeating Chelsea, having won two of the last three versus the London club, but those came during home fixtures.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, Billy Jones

2012-13 fixture result: Chelsea 1, West Brom 0

Key betting note:
The Blues have scored at least two goals in their last 10 League matches at Stamford Bridge.

Where the action is: "Chelsea are taking the bulk of action for the FT result, but at -350 it’s a very steep, though justified price and is mainly a parlay banker for the weekend. Samuel Eto’o sees the bulk of the goalscorer action at +450 First Goalscorer and To Score Anytime at +120."

Crystal Palace v Everton (+550, +300, -163)

Why bet Crystal Palace:
Palace has one league victory. That victory came at home. So there's that.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Patrick McCarthy, Jonathan Williams

Why bet Everton: Everton had a two match winning streak snapped with a stale 0-0 draw against visitors Tottenham. They'll look to secure a full three points against relegation-bound Palace. If Romelelu Lukaku plays after picking up a slight knock following a collision with Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris, the big Belgian will look to dominate the ball and the scoresheet.

Key players out/doubtful: Arouna Koné, Darron Gibson

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Crystal Palace has lost seven-straight League matches.

Liverpool v Fulham (-400, +550, +1400)

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds will continue to fight toward the top spot in the table after losing at Arsenal one week ago. Goalscoring-duo Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge will look to dominate here much like they did against a helpless West Brom two weeks ago.

Key players out/doubtful: Iago Aspas, José Enrique

Why bet Fulham: The Cottagers had a really good two-game stretch where they posted victories over Stoke and Crystal Palace. It was short lived, however, as they have no lost back-to-back efforts. They need to find a good stretch of form or else will be in the market for a new manager.

Key players out/doubtful: Sascha Riether, Matthew Briggs, Hugo Rodallega

2012-13 fixture result: Liverpool 4, Fulham 0

Key betting note: Liverpool has kept Fulham off the scoresheet in six of the last seven matches (all competitions) at Anfield.

Southampton v Hull (-175, +290, +650)

Why bet Southampton: The Saints own the league's stingiest defense, having allowed just four goals on the season. One of which was last week's incredibly lucky goal by Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic. Still, Southampton is one of the better stores of the season and haven't lost since a 1-0 defeat away to Norwich on Aug. 31.

Key players out/doubtful: Guly

Why bet Hull: After a pair of back-to-back losses, the Tigers put a notch in the winning column with a 1-0 victory over Sunderland. They currently sit a very respectable 10th in the table and have played very disciplined football - at home at least. Nine of the Tigers 10 goals conceded have come in road games.

Key players out/doubtful: James Chester, Sone Aluko, Allan McGregor

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note: Southampton has kept a clean sheet in its last four Premier League home games.

Where the action is: "The FT result market sees apparent value in the Saints at -175, but a midweek away game at Sunderland is definitely built into the price which on another week would prob be closer to -200. With goals most likely at a premium, Over 2.5 goals is available at +120, with the Under at -154."

Norwich v West Ham (+163, +230, +190)

Why bet Norwich: We keep waiting for the Canaries to turn for the better, but it just hasn't happened. Norwich was throttled 7-0 by Manchester City one week ago and nothing seems to be going right for the club. No better place to reverse fortunes than at home where they've collected five of their eight points.

Key players out/doubtful: Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers may be sitting 15th in the table, but are eighth in away form. West Ham has earned six points in five away matches, but have suffered just one defeat away from Upton Park.

Key players out/doubtful: James Collins, Andy Carroll, Ricardo Vaz Te, Alou Diarra

2012-13 fixture result: Norwich 0, West Ham 0

Key betting note: There has been Under 2.5 goals scored in five of West Ham's previous six away matches.

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