NBA Playoff bettors that subscribe to the “Zig Zag” theory are well aware of the Miami Heat and their SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) success recently.
The Zig Zag theory is simple enough: Wager on the team coming off a straight up loss. And, after getting blown out by the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3, the Heat won and covered in Game 4. The victory extends their streak to 12 straight times they've won and covered coming off a loss.
We talk with Aron Black, an oddsmaker for Bet365, about the flow of action coming in ahead of Game 5.
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (1.5, 188) Open: Pick, Move: 1.5
The Spurs go into Game 5 as 1.5-point home dogs, and that line is largely due to Tony Parkers’ questionable hamstring injury, and the lack of involvement off the bench by Manu Ginobili.
The momentum is firmly back with the Heat, but so far, the action is siding more with the Spurs to regain the lead in the series.
“We are taking about 2.5:1 Spurs-to-Heat money, but I expect that to balance out more as the game nears,” Black told Covers.”
The action on the moneyline is pretty close to a 50/50 split, but the money flowing in on the total is what’s really making noise ahead of Game 5.
“Getting a lot of ‘overs’, Black notes. “With two overs in the last two games, and what most expect is more offense from San Antonio in this game, it’s no surprise we are seeing more overs than unders by a pretty good clip.”