English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Nov 22, 2013 |
The Premier League returns from the latest international break and jumps right back into things with the Merseyside Derby.

We talked to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's fixtures.

Everton v Liverpool (+190, +230, +163)

Why bet Everton: The Toffees are right in the thick of it sitting sixth in the table, just three points back of their noisy neighbors, and look to be the darkhorse to crash the party in the top four.

Key players out/doubtful: Darron Gibson, Arouna Koné

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds crushed a dismal Fulham side in the match prior to the international break and will attempt to do the same to the blue half of Liverpool. Mamadou Sakho, who helped put France through to Brazil, makes his return to club football and the youngster should be brimming with confidence.

Key players out/doubtful:
Iago Aspas, José Enrique, Sebastián Coates

2012-13 fixture result:
Everton 2, Liverpool 2

Key betting note:
The Toffees are unbeaten in their last 17 Premier League matches at Goodison Park.

Where the action is:
"Local pride is always at stake for these sides in one of the biggest derbies around, but with both playing well and having a good start to their seasons, it’s a derby that should be one of the games of the weekend. Action is definitely siding with the Reds at +163, with the draw seeing more action than Everton. With three of the top golascorers (Suarez, Sturridge, Lukaku) involved, the over 2.5 goals at -118 is a popular play."

Arsenal v Southampton (-154, +320, +450)

Why bet Arsenal: The table-toppers could receive a boost as the speedy Theo Walcott could return. The Gunners lost to Manchester United prior to the break, so will look to grab a full three points at the Emirates.

Key players out/doubtful: Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Mathieu Flamini

Why bet Southampton:
Detractors have been waiting for the Saints to fall off, but that just hasn't happened. The side boasts the stingiest defense in the league, having allowed just five goals thus far. They sit third in the table and will look to keep a potent Gunners attack at bay Saturday.

Key players out/doubtful:
Guly Do Prado

2012-13 fixture result: Arsenal 6, Southampton 1

Key betting note: There has been under 2.5 goals in the Saints last 10 away matches in the Premier League.

Where the action is: "Arsenal were -175 on the early prices, but a shortening draw price has seen them drift to -154, but that hasn’t deterred many from backing them to take the three points, but the Saints also have their support at +450. Overall, it’s a well balanced FT result book so far. Arsenal players lead the goalscorer betting markets with Olivier Giroud (+450) to score the first goal and +140 to score anytime."

Fulham v Swansea (+250, +225, +130)

Why bet Fulham:
There's no real reason to, unless your a Fulham supporter. The Cottagers have been abysmal this season and it's probably just a matter of time before gaffer Martin Jol gets his walking papers. The club has dropped its past three-straight matches in the league, after winning a pair that made it seem like they were getting back on track.

Key players out/doubtful:
Hugo Rodallega, Matthew Briggs, Sascha Riether

Why bet Swansea:
Swansea's injuries mean that new signings like Wilfried Bony need to step up. It's time for the Ivorian to prove his worth as talisman Michu will be missing from the lineup. He's certainly capable, and the Swans need him to start bagging goals before a side with so much promise drifts toward the bottom of the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Pablo Hernández, Garry Monk

2012-13 fixture result: Fulham 1, Swansea 2

Key betting note: Fulham and Swansea have played over the 2.5 goal total in the last three meetings at Craven Cottage.

Hull v Crystal Palace (-118, +250, +400)

Why bet Hull:
It hasn't been the best of runs for Hull as they were dispatched rather easily by Southampton in their last effort and have lost three of four. But they are playing the worst team in the league, so there's that.

Key players out/doubtful: James Chester, Stephen Quinn, Sone Aluko

Why bet Crystal Palace: Despite an atrocious season which has them buried at the bottom of the table, Palace is coming off a very respectable draw with Everton. This is a great match for them to build some momentum and climb out of the basement.

Key players out/doubtful:
Adlène Guédioura, Glenn Murray, Jack Hunt, Jonathan Williams

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Palace has five losses in five away matches in the league this season.

Newcastle v Norwich (-133, +290, +400)

Why bet Newcastle: Perfect opportunity for the Magpies to move up the table and show us who they really are. They've put together back-to-back wins over Chelsea and Tottenaham, but can they avoid a massive trap game at home here? It seems like the loss to Sunderland has given this side a spark.

Key players out/doubtful: Mathieu Debuchy, Ryan Taylor

Why bet Norwich: The Canaries picked up a much-needed three points prior to the break. The side has not fared well this season and big money signings (by Norwich standards) like Ricky van Wolfswinkel have yet to pay off. They did make a bevy of squad moves in the window, so perhaps they have yet to mesh, but something needs to happen soon.

Key players out/doubtful: Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett, Anthony Pilkington

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 1, Norwich 0

Key betting note:
The Magpies have scored at least two goals in their last three EPL home games.

Stoke v Sunderland (+110, +230, +300)

Why bet Stoke: A new manager was supposed to bring a new identity for the Potters, but Stoke has been a draw machine recently. Much like the club was last season. They won two of three to start the season, but can't seem to collect three points of late. A great place to right the ship is at home to 19th-place Sunderland.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

Why bet Sunderland: A new manager has brought a new identity to the Black Cats. After sacking Di Canio, Sunderland brought in Gus Poyet and the club has won two of three, including an excellent 1-0 win over Man City before the break.

Key players out/doubtful: Andrea Dossena, Lee Cattermole

2012-13 fixture result: Stoke 0, Sunderland 0

Key betting note: Sunderland hasn't scored in their last three EPL away games.

West Ham v Chelsea (+500, +320, -163)

Why bet West Ham: Things aren't good for the Hammers. They lost 3-1 to lowly Norwich before the break and haven't won at Upton Park in four matches. On the plus side, however, is Ravel Morrison. The young playmaker has been a bright spot in an otherwise horrific run for the side.

Key players out/doubtful: Mladen Petric, Razvan Rat, Andy Carroll, Ricardo Vaz Te, Winston Reid, Alou Diarra

Why bet Chelsea: The Blues will look to destroy a wounded West Ham club. Chelsea is superior in basically every position on the pitch and the injury list for West Ham could make for easy pickings for the mega-rich club. With the teams above them involved in some tough fixtures, three points for the Blues is essential.

Key players out/doubtful:
Marco van Ginkel, Fernando Torres

2012-13 fixture result:
West Ham 3, Chelsea 1

Key betting note: The Blues are unbeaten in 14 of the last 15 meetings with West Ham in all competitions.

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