No one knows the NFL better than its players, which is why Sports Illustrated has made it a yearly process to poll the pros on which of their fellow NFLers are the most overrated in the league.
And, no one knows NFL betting better than Las Vegas oddsmakers, which is why we at Covers polled Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, and found out just how much SI.com’s Most Overrated NFL Players were actually worth to the spread.
These values are projected moves to the spread, factoring in public perception, if these players were suddenly ruled out of action before kickoff:
1. Tim Tebow, QB New York Jets – 0 points
2. Mark Sanchez, QB New York Jets – 1 to 1.5 points
“With Tebow, nothing. With Sanchez, there is a little more to Sanchez because it’s New York and there’s a lot of money there,” Korner told Covers. “Maybe a point. It depends on how well he’s playing at the time.”
3. Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys – 2 or 3 points
“He could be overrated for what he does on the field,” says Korner, “but his value to the spread is a two or three-point difference. There’s a dropoff there.”
4. Michael Vick, QB Philadelphia Eagles – 1 or 1.5 points
“Not the same as he used to be,” says Korner. “From my perspective, nothing. But from the bettors’ perspective, one or 1.5 points possibly. He’s just not playing with any intensity or energy.”
5. Ray Lewis, LB Baltimore Ravens – 0 points
“Back a few years ago, it would have been noted,” says Korner. “A cluster of defensive injuries will move a line, but it’s tough to set a value on one player.”
6. Reggie Bush, RB Miami Dolphins – 0.5 or 1 point
7. Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Philadelphia Eagles – 0 points
8. Michael Crabtree, WR San Francisco 49ers – 0 points
9. Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots – 7 points
“He’s big,” says Korner. “Depending on who they’re playing and what the spread is, he could be worth more or less. But right now, he’s still worth a lot.”
10. Ndamukong Suh, DT Detroit Lions – 0 points
11. B.J. Raji, NT Green Bay Packers – 0 points
12. Brian Urlacher, LB Chicago Bears – 0 points
13. Philip Rivers, QB San Diego Chargers – 4 to 6 points
“He’s another big one, but again it depends on who (San Diego is) playing and the spread,” says Korner.
14. Dwayne Bowe, WR Kansas City Chiefs – 1 point
“He’s a good player and an excellent big-play guy,” says Korner. “Maybe a point.”
15. Eli Manning, QB New York Giants – 4 or 5 points
16. Cam Newton, QB Carolina Panthers – 2 or 3 points
“He’s starting to diminish,” says Korner. “A couple points would be an estimated knee-jerk reaction.”
17. Troy Polamalu, S Pittsburgh Steelers – 0 points
“I love him and his style of play. He was maybe a point at his peak,” says Korner. “Now he’d have to be combined with someone else. As a defensive player, he’s taking away points so it’s tough to quantify a value to the spread. And it also depends on who he’s playing: A run orientated offense or a pass-first offense.”
18. Darnell Dockett, DT Arizona Cardinals – 0 points
19. DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins – 0 points
20. Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons – 1 point
“I’m not big on receivers (when it comes to value to the spread), but he’s a big-play guy for them,” says Korner.