Covers Expert Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 15.
Most passing yards
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
Tom Brady was held to only 116 passing yards in the first meeting between these two teams this season, and while we can expect him to improve on that number here, I'm not convinced that he'll outgun Ryan Tannehill.
The Dolphins second-year quarterback has thrown for at least 200 yards in six consecutive games, and the majority of his best performances have come at home this season - most recently racking up 310 passing yards against the Panthers in Week 12.
The Patriots defense has regressed lately, allowing well north of 12 yards per pass play over their last three games. This isn't an ideal matchup for them to 'get right'.
Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Matt McGloin (Oakland Raiders)
The Chiefs offense has been rolling along lately, but I won't be surprised if they face some resistance in the Black Hole on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City scored a whopping 45 points in last week's win over the Redskins, but QB Alex Smith threw for only 137 yards. This is still a run-first team, and that gameplan isn't likely to change against a Raiders defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per rush over its last three games.
Raiders QB Matt McGloin has thrown for 260, 255, and 245 yards in his last three games. As strong as the Chiefs 'D' has been for most of the season, it has struggled recently, allowing 14.4 yards per pass play over the last three games.
Most rushing yards
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Frank Gore is coming off one of his best performances of the season, rushing for 110 yards on 17 carries last Sunday against Seattle. Given the fact that he had topped out at 48 rushing yards over his previous three games, I'm not expecting a repeat effort here.
Note that Gore has been held to 71 yards or less on the ground in the 49ers last four road contests.
Bucs RB Bobby Rainey has been a dominant force at home, gaining 290 yards on 52 carries over his last two games in Tampa. The 49ers defense will obviously pose a significant challenge, but I believe Rainey will be up to the task.
Most pass receptions
Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)
I simply feel that Hakeem Nicks will be given more opportunities than Doug Baldwin on Sunday, and can't ignore the plus-money return being offered.
Baldwin had only four pass targets and three catches in last Sunday's game in San Francisco. He's had more than five catches in a game on only two occasions this season. This week, I'm expecting the Seahawks to show a stronger commitment to the run.
Nicks burst back onto the scene for the Giants last Sunday, catching five passes for 135 yards. He's been fairly consistent this year, hauling in at least four catches in eight of the 12 games he's appeared in.