All Systems Are Go: Covers user shares his successful MLB betting strategy

Aug 12, 2017 |
All Systems Are Go: Covers user shares his successful MLB betting strategy
This system will present cases where bettors are backing huge favorites like the Washington Nationals were on Monday when Max Scherzer took the bump against the Miami Marlins.
Photo By - USA Today Images
This system will present cases where bettors are backing huge favorites like the Washington Nationals were on Monday when Max Scherzer took the bump against the Miami Marlins.
Photo By - USA Today Images

Every other week, we will dive into the Covers Community ‘Systems & Strategies Forum’ looking for the most interesting and profitable betting systems to feature and share. If you have any moneymaking system or see one we should highlight, please let us know.

The term betting system can be somewhat intimidating to your average Joe bettor. You hear system then you think formulas and then, all of a sudden, you’re picturing a chalk board full of equations like something out of the movie Interstellar.

But not all systems are super complicated. Some are as easy as fading the dumbest guy in the room.

Covers user CKP22 remembers the first bet he ever made was on the Boston Celtics to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in a playoff series in the mid ‘80s. You know, like when the Celtics had Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish – and the Bucks had… Sidney Moncrief?

“Yeah, I won because the guy I bet against was the biggest mush in the world,” CKP22 says of his friend from the seventh grade. “Me and my friends would get his picks on football or anything.”

Little did that 12 year old know his friends wanted to know who he liked just so they could bet the opposite way. That’s a system and a winning formula too.

CKP22 has another system although this one requires a few more ground rules to properly execute. His favorite sport to bet on is baseball and this system is a chase strategy where bettors back MLB teams in the second half of the season who are at least 10 games over .500 and beginning a homestand of at least six games. The strategy is explained in full detail in a popular forum thread that's been alive since July 2011. 

The point of the system is to get one win and then get out. A bettor will have to chase his losses if the favored team drops the first game of the series. CKP22 says his system is 574-1 since the start of the 1999 campaign. Basically you’re betting a good team won’t lose six home games in a row, although most of the time you’ll be fine picking up your win early in the series.

The series wins came in 507 of the 574 unit wins – meaning 88 percent of the time a chase wasn’t required to pick up your win. These are wins but not necessary unit wins because of the juice involved.

The juice is an issue with this system. It’s not always going to be two good teams playing each other like earlier this week when the Arizona Diamondbacks hosted the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Washington Nationals, for instance, started a nine-game homestand and were -305 chalk against the Miami Marlins on Monday. If you’re a $100 bettor, the return on a win in that game would only be $32.79.

“I have a number in mind that I want to make on each play,” CKP22 says. “Let’s say for example the Washington Nationals on Monday. I wanted to win $75 on them, so my target was $75.”

To win that $75, he would have had to wager $229 on the Nationals with Max Scherzer on the mound. CKP22 says a lot of people who like his system will look at those odds and play the runline instead. Better payout, sure, but they would have lost the Monday game because the Nats only won by one run.

“My system is not based on the runline,” CKP22 says. “All my numbers are based, over the years, on straight bets.”

CKP22 says the hardest part of his system is staying disciplined and following the chase or discontinuing the bet once you’ve picked up your homestand win. He says he knows this but he’ll probably still bet on the Nationals this weekend when they host the San Francisco Giants even though he already picked up his system win earlier this week.

“When I started out I had a lot more discipline than I do now,” he says. “You would think that as you get older you get more discipline but it’s been the opposite for me.”


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