Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Nov 8, 2012 |
The sportsbooks are brushing off their shoulders following a favorite-filled Week 9 that handed books one of their worst weekends in some time. But it’s business as usual in Nevada, which means NFL odds are on the move heading into the weekend.

We talk to Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the Week 10 board. We also look at where those lines could end up by kickoff:

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some online books opened this game with Tampa Bay as a slight home favorite. Then, sharp money pushed that to a field goal and most Las Vegas books followed suit. South Point is currently dealing the Bucs -3 and doesn’t see this game moving off the key number.

“The money is trending towards the Buccaneers, but if we go to 3.5 we’ll get chopped up and they would jump on San Diego,” Osborne told Covers. “We’ll just stay the course and hope this one doesn’t land on three.”

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

If you were just looking at the standings, that opening line of a pick’em would seem insane for a game between an 8-0 team and a 3-5 squad. While the early action is on Atlanta, bettors aren’t jumping on the Falcons to quickly after the Saints took apart the Eagles on Monday night football.

“We’ve seen nothing but public money (on the Falcons) but we could see some money come in on the Saints,” says Osborne. “That Monday night game is in their memory banks and that’s what is fresh, that’s what people remember.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -1, Move: +2.5

The injury to Vikings WR Percy Harvin has many bettors playing it cool with this NFC North grudge match. Osborne says there hasn’t been a lot of early action on this game and even though Detroit has won three of its last four, he doesn’t necessarily agree with the early opinion.

“Minnesota stunk it up last week in Seattle and cost us, but this is a team that is capable of pulling out a win at home,” he says.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -1.5, Move: +1.5

The Eagles have flipped from favorites to underdogs with parlay plays and sharp money piling on America’s Team. Osborne says Philadelphia can’t close out games, but that’s a trend shared by both NFC East rivals.

“(The Eagles) are going to get close to 8-8 this season and could be starting to mail it in,” says Osborne.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -11.5, Move: -13

The Monday nighter has the biggest spread on the board. South Point opened Pittsburgh -12.5 and took action on Kansas City to move it back down to 12. Osborne says the spread could easily go back to its opening stand or even more to 13, which is being offered at some online shops.

“I could see it move to 13 and then have some of the sharps come in hard on Kansas City,” he says. “But who’s going to make a case for Kansas City, unless the Steelers come in flat just looking to take a win.”

Osborne says with such a big favorite for Monday Night Football, a lot of the parlays, moneyline parlays and teasers will be tide into the final game of Week 10.

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