Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Nov 15, 2013 |
Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Early action
The 'Skins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Philly.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The 'Skins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Philly.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)

Geno Smith is having an up and down rookie season but played one of his best games against Buffalo in Week 3, when he passed for a season-high 331 yards to go along with two touchdowns in a 27-20 triumph. New York is not asking much of Smith, who is enjoying the luxury of a rushing offense that produces an average of 129 yards, and he attempted a season-low 19 passes in the win over the Saints.

Buffalo is averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide and just barely scratched out one touchdown in a 23-10 loss at Pittsburgh last week when Manuel found Chris Cragg with three seconds left. Manuel could have less help this week with wide receivers Stevie Johnson (groin) and Robert Woods (ankle) each sitting out Wednesday’s practice.

LINE: Opened as a pick and has been bet up to Buffalo +1. The total is steady at 41.
WEATHER: There is a 64 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field from the south at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.5) - Buffalo (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -0.5

* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Buffalo.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)

Atlanta has been plagued by turnovers - it's minus-8 in that department - as well as injuries to several standouts on both sides of the ball. The hits continue this week with tight end Tony Gonzalez (toe) missing practice Wednesday and receiver Roddy White (shoulder) and running back Steven Jackson (toe) limited. The Falcons should get linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back this week after missing seven games with a foot injury.

Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st among 32 teams in total yards and scoring, and the unit took another hit when running back Mike James suffered a season-ending broken ankle. James had proven a viable plan B after losing Doug Martin for the season, and now the workload falls to Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey to continue the improved ground game that has powered much-improved efforts the past two weeks.

Atlanta has jumped from a pick to +1. The total is up one from a 42.5-point opener.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -1.5

* Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous contest.
* Buccaneers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.
* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)

Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson increased his career touchdown reception total to 63, overtaking Herman Moore for the top spot on the franchise list. Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford have formed a dangerous combination, with the former leading the league in average receiving yards (113.0) and tied for second in TD catches (nine) and the latter fourth in both yards (2,836) and scoring passes (19).

Pittsburgh will need its defense to continue its strong play to keep the Lions from notching their third straight win. The Steelers have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL, and held Buffalo to 227 total yards last week. Pittsburgh's running game has improved of late, as the team has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau in three of the last four games.

LINE: Detroit has held steady as a 1-point fave, with the total currently 47.
WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-3.0) + Pittsburgh (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -3.5

* Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)

One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1).

Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East.

LINE: The Eagles opened as low as -3 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is up from 51 to 53.
WEATHER: There's a 23 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the mid-60s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+3.5) + Philadelphia (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -7.5

* Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Eagles are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)

Joe Flacco threw a pair of touchdown passes as Baltimore pulled out a critical 20-17 overtime win last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs haven't won two straight games since mid-September. The schedule is favorable, however, as Baltimore plays three straight games at home after its date with Chicago against teams with a combined 10-17 record. Baltimore trails Cincinnati by 1 1/2 games in the division and is also behind in the wild-card race.

Bears QB Jay Cutler is out a high ankle sprain and defensive back Charles Tillman is also out with a torn triceps, adding to a long list of sidelined starters. Backup QB Josh McCown has been sharp in his three appearances on the season, completing 60 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Marshall continues to be the top target with 14 receptions for 246 yards and three TDs in the last two games.

LINE: Chicago opened -3 but the line has been bet down to -2.5. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 44.
WEATHER: There is a 74 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 20 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+3.0) + Chicago (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.5

* Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)

Coming out of its bye week, Cleveland will match its win total from last season with one more victory. What makes that even more impressive is that the Browns are on their third starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, who has recorded the team’s highest passer ratings of the season in his first two starts. Cleveland can sweep the season series for the first time since 2002 with a win.

Quarterback Andy Dalton has come under fire after throwing a combined six interceptions in the two overtime losses. Despite the setbacks, Cincinnati is still in control of its fate with four of its final six games at home, where it is undefeated this season. Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.

LINE: Cincinnati has held as a 6-point fave, with the total currently 42.
WEATHER: There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -9

* Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.
* Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. the AFC North.
* Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9.5, 41.5)

Quarterback Terrelle Pryor's inconsistent campaign continued in the loss to the Giants as he struggled to an 11-for-26 performance with 122 yards and an interception. Pryor, who is listed as questionable with a knee ailment and did not practice Wednesday, has thrown five interceptions with no touchdowns in the last three weeks. Rookie Matt McGloin, who came off the bench in a loss to Philadelphia on Nov. 3, took the first-team snaps in practice.

As its season has fallen on hard times, Houston's roster continues to take a form vastly different than the one many thought could contend in the AFC. Safety Ed Reed, a nine-time Pro Bowler who was expected to be one of the leaders of a standout defense, was released Tuesday after calling out the coaching in the loss to the Cardinals, and star running back Arian Foster was placed on season-ending injured reserve due to nagging back issues.

The Texans opened -7 and are now -9.5. The total has dropped from 43 to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - Houston (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -5

* Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
* Over is 7-3 in Houston's last 10 games.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)

Arizona is ranked just 24th in rushing (93.6) and that has meant an over-reliance on quarterback Carson Palmer, who has thrown at least one interception in every game and has 15 overall. Rookie Andre Ellington has shown the ability to juice up the sagging running game with 209 yards over the last two games and an impressive 7.2-yard average. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has a team-leading three interceptions.

Jacksonville’s defense allows 388.9 yards per game and could be without leading tackler Paul Posluszny (88 stops) after the standout middle linebacker suffered a concussion against Tennessee. Making matters worse is that backup LaRoy Reynolds was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, which forces the Jaguars to start roster-filler Russell Allen, who last played in the middle in 2009.

The Jags opened as a 6-point dog but are now +9.5.. The total is up a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Wind will be blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 10 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+1.0) - Jacksonville (+8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4

* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville's last eight home games.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View